What are the choices the Asia-Pacific community will face if it
proceeds farther down the path of developing preferential regional
trading arrangements? Fragmentation of the region into preferential
trading arrangements on a bilateral or subregional basis promises
relatively little economic gain and considerable risk of increased
trade conflict. Larger preferential trading blocs, spanning the
whole of East Asia, the Western Pacific, or the APEC membership,
offer greater potential economic benefits but also face formidable
political obstacles.
In this study, Scollay and Gilbert weigh the economic
consequences of the increased use of preferential trading
arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region, whether these develop on
the basis of trans-Pacific cooperation or solely within the East
Asian or Western Pacific subregions. They evaluate the economic
effects of both the existing proposals for new bilateral and
multilateral agreements and of more far-reaching developments
involving the creation of a substantial trading bloc or blocs in
the region. Comparisons between the economic effects of
establishing such bloc(s) in the region and the effects of
achieving APEC's Bogor goals on the basis of "open regionalism"
suggest that the latter approach continues to offer a worthwhile
alternative. The study demonstrates that the benefits of global
free trade dominate those available from the establishment of any
combination of major blocs or from APEC's "open regionalism."
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