Social Security rules have changed constantly since its creation,
generating different outcomes across cohorts, race and gender. A
look at the history of social security in the US and Germany
provides substantial evidence of policy risk in their pay-as-you-go
systems. This does not only impose welfare costs on the population,
but also has important wealth accumulation and portfolio choice
consequences. Using the history of policy changes, estimates of the
potential welfare costs to the US population are presented. This
book also explores the effects of policy risk on wealth
accumulation, both looking at the effects the 1984 social security
reform in the US could have had on individuals' wealth
accumulation, as well as using aggregate data to estimate the
impact of social security wealth and risk on savings. The evidence
obtained suggests that there is an important substitution between
social security wealth and financial wealth, and that people
exposed to larger policy uncertainties accumulate more financial
wealth. Results imply that accounting for policy risk greatly
improves our understanding of the real effects of retirement
programs.
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