It's a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil
prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past
decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained
fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people -
including politicians, financial analysts and pundits - will
respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased
Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and
tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant
petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For
instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few
weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a
barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle
East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the
market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no -
quite the opposite in fact.
Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind
today's increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two
decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions
of supply and demand and have transcended any country's,
consortium's, cartel's, or corporate entity's powers to control
them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts
realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game
involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government
policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity
among the oil majors.
In "Understanding Oil Prices" Carollo identifies the key players
in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and
motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the1976
oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the
implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the
precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of
the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have
occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades,
identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and
analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil
industry's decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of
increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol,
diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and
other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in
the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost
completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of
oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures
has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more
sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use
to make sense of today's oil market, while offering industry
leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising
the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable
oil.
A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft
misunderstood oil markets, "Understanding Oil Prices" is an
important resource for energy market participants, commodity
traders and investors, as well as business journalists and
government policymakers alike.
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