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Books > Social sciences > Sociology, social studies > Population & demography
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State and Local Population Projections - Methodology and Analysis (Paperback, 2002 ed.)
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State and Local Population Projections - Methodology and Analysis (Paperback, 2002 ed.)
Series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis
Expected to ship within 10 - 15 working days
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This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and
local population projections. It describes the most commonly used
data sources and application techniques within each of three
classes of projection methods (cohort-component, trend
extrapolation, and structural models) and covers the components of
population growth, the formation of assumptions, the development of
evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It
considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection
methods, paying special attention to the unique problems of making
projections for small areas, and closes with an examination of
technological and methodological changes affecting the production
of small-area population projections. The authors provide practical
guidance to demographers, planners, and other analysts called on to
construct state and local population projections. They use many
examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with
special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or
unreliable data; they also describe techniques for controlling one
set of projections to another and for interpolating between two
projections. They discuss the role of judgment and the importance
of the political context in which projections are made. They
emphasize the "utility" of projections, or their usefulness for
decision making in a world of competing demands and limited
resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an
understanding not only of the mechanics of commonly used population
projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting
their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
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