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Twenty-First Century India - Population, Economy, Human Development, and the Environment (Paperback)
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Twenty-First Century India - Population, Economy, Human Development, and the Environment (Paperback)
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Twenty-First Century India is the first study of India's
development giving a fully integrated account of population and
development. It is built on new projections of the population for
fifty years from the Census of 2001. India's population then had
already passed 1 billion. Twenty-five years later it will exceed
1.4 billion, and will almost certainly pass 1.5 billion by
mid-century. The projections incorporate for the first time both
inter-state migration and the role of HIV/AIDS. They also show
India's urban future, with close to half a billion urban
inhabitants by the year 2026. The implications of this population
growth are then traced out in a range of modelling and analytical
work. Growing numbers are found to complicate the task of achieving
widespread education in a number of India's states, while other
states are already experiencing declines in their school-age
population. Demographic growth also contributes to poverty, and
increasing divergence in social conditions among the states. As
population growth slows in the country overall, the labour force
continues to grow relatively fast, with difficult consequences for
employment. But national economic growth could be accelerated by
the 'demographic bonus' of the declining proportion of dependents
to workers in the population. The book is reasonably optimistic
about India's food prospects: the country can continue to feed
itself. It can also enjoy higher levels of energy use,
manufacturing, and modern forms of transport, while experiencing
less chemical pollution. India's cities can become cleaner and
healthier places to live. Perhaps the most difficult environmental
issue, and the one most strongly related to population growth, is
water. Some states also face severe pressures on common property
resources. A policy chapter concludes the book. India's future
problems are large, but in principle manageable. However, whether
the country will actually achieve sustainable development for all
is another matter.
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