Understanding the impacts of climate change on economic behaviour is an important aspect of deciding when to take policy actions to prevent or mitigate its consequences. This book applies advanced new economics methodologies to assess impacts on potentially vulnerable aspects of the US economy: agriculture, timber, coastal resources, energy expenditure, fishing, outdoor recreation. It is intended to provide improved understanding of key issues raised in the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. It concludes that some climate change may produce economic gains in the agriculture and forestry sectors, whereas energy, coastal structures, and water sectors may be harmed. The book will serve as an important reference for the scientific, economic, and policy community, and will also be of interest to natural resource/environmental economists as an example of economic valuation techniques. The volume will clearly be of main importance to researchers and policymakers in the US, but will also be influential as a model for assessment of impacts on economies worldwide.

Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Azerbaijan is one of the many countries where the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture directly or indirectly for their livelihood. Further, changes in climate and their impacts on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. The risks associated with climate change therefore pose an immediate and fundamental problem in the country. Adaptation measures now in use in Azerbaijan, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. As a result, there is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at the farm level, and to develop and prioritize adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. Beginning in 2009, the World Bank embarked on a program for selected Eastern Europe and Central Asian (ECA) client countries to enhance their ability to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs, and investments. This multi-stage effort has included activities to raise awareness of the threat, analyze potential impacts and adaptation responses, and build capacity among client country stakeholders and ECA Bank staff with respect to climate change and the agricultural sector. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, is the culmination of efforts by the Azerbaijani institutions and researchers, the World Bank, and a team of international experts to jointly undertake an analytical study to address potential impacts climate change may have on Azerbaijan s agricultural sector, but, more importantly, to develop a list of prioritized measures to adapt to those impacts. Specifically, this study provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Azerbaijan. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resource experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions. Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change is part of the World Bank Studies series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. The study is one of three produced under the World Bank program Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems. The other countries included in this series are Armenia and Georgia. World Bank Studies are available individually or on standing order. This World Bank Studies series is also available online through the World Bank e-library (www.worldbank.org/elibrary)."

Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as the four examined in Looking Beyond the Horizon, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for its livelihood. The risks of climate change to agriculture cannot be effectively dealt with-hand the opportunities cannot be effectively exploited-without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and investing in infrastructure, support services, and on-farm improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis; consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts; and investments in both human and physical capital. The diverse experiences of Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan, highlighted in this book, show that it is possible to develop a plan to meet these objectives-one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick to develop. The approach of this volume is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its emphasis on 'win-win' or 'no regrets' solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for the farmers of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions-also known as 'climate-smart agriculture'. Looking Beyond the Horizon draws on the experiences of applying this approach to these four nations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia with the goal of helping each country mainstream climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies, programmes, and investments. The book also highlights the projected impacts of climate change on agriculture in these countries through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, which are crucial to farming, and offers a map for navigating the risks and realising the opportunities. Finally, a detailed explanation of the approach, as well as lessons learned from its implementation, is provided for those who would like to implement similar programmes in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world.

This book illustrates the World Bank s commitment to assist countries to respond to the opportunities and challenges posed by climate change. Undertaken in collaborative partnership with policy makers, farmers, civil society, and other stakeholders in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, it provides a much needed response to the call for action by quantifying the impact and identifying key priorities for policies, programs, and investments to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change in the South Caucasus. The study responds to the urgent need for climate adaptation, as highlighted in the World Bank s Turn Down the Heat report. Notably, the South Caucasus is already contending with increasing aridity and more frequent extreme weather events (e.g. severe droughts, floods and hailstorms). It presents practical solutions for a more climate smart agriculture, at the regional, national and agro-ecological zone level in each country. The recommendations offered in this book are a compilation of the results of the three national studies, and highlight the need and potential for regional collaborative action to increase benefits, while also continuing to emphasize the need for an effective response at the national level. The national level results are supported by country reports, which provide more details. This work is but an important beginning. To achieve the goals of climate resilience in the agriculture sector, more work is needed to translate the proposals into reality. The analysis demonstrates that investments in irrigation infrastructure and on-farm technologies have great potential to raise agricultural productivity and improve the climate resilience of the sector. Demand-side agricultural water management will have high short-term payoffs, and these short-term payoffs are complementary to the success of long- term irrigation, drainage and other infrastructure investments. Strengthening the disaster risk management strategies (beyond agricultural measures) are also needed to help mitigate household risks from extreme events, especially for the poorest, who are the most vulnerable."

Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Armenia is one of the many countries where the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture - directly or indirectly - for their livelihood. Further, changes in climate and their impacts on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. The risks associated with climate change therefore pose an immediate and fundamental problem in the country. Adaptation measures now in use in Armenia, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. As a result, there is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at the farm level, and to develop and prioritise adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. Beginning in 2009, the World Bank embarked on a programme for selected Eastern Europe and Central Asian (ECA) client countries to enhance their ability to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programmes, and investments. This multi-stage effort has included activities to raise awareness of the threat, analyse potential impacts and adaptation responses, and build capacity among client country stakeholders and ECA Bank staff with respect to climate change and the agricultural sector. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Armenia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, is the culmination of efforts by the Armenian institutions and researchers, the World Bank, and a team of international experts to jointly undertake an analytical study to address potential impacts climate change may have on Armenia's agricultural sector, but, more importantly, to develop a list of prioritised measures to adapt to those impacts. Specifically, this study provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Armenia. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modellers, and water resource experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions.

Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Georgia is one of the many countries where the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture directly or indirectly for their livelihood. Further, changes in climate and their impacts on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. The risks associated with climate change therefore pose an immediate and fundamental problem in the country. Adaptation measures now in use in Georgia, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. As a result, there is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at the farm level, and to develop and prioritize adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. Beginning in 2009, the World Bank embarked on a program for selected Eastern Europe and Central Asian (ECA) client countries to enhance their ability to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs, and investments. This multi-stage effort has included activities to raise awareness of the threat, analyze potential impacts and adaptation responses, and build capacity among client country stakeholders and ECA Bank staff with respect to climate change and the agricultural sector. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, is the culmination of efforts by the Georgian institutions and researchers, the World Bank, and a team of international experts jointly undertake an analytical study to address potential impacts climate change may have on Georgia s agricultural sector, but, more importantly, to develop a list of prioritized measures to adapt to those impacts. Specifically, this study provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Georgia. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resource experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions. Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change is part of the World Bank Studies series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. The study is one of three produced under the World Bank program Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems. The other countries included in this series are Armenia and Azerbaijan. World Bank Studies are available individually or on standing order. This World Bank Studies series is also available online through the World Bank e-library (www.worldbank.org/elibrary)."