Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic
sectors. In many countries, such as the four examined in Looking
Beyond the Horizon, the risks of climate change are an immediate
and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural
population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for
its livelihood. The risks of climate change to agriculture cannot
be effectively dealt with-hand the opportunities cannot be
effectively exploited-without a clear plan for aligning
agricultural policies with climate change, developing the
capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and investing in
infrastructure, support services, and on-farm improvements.
Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of
high-quality quantitative analysis; consultation with key
stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts;
and investments in both human and physical capital. The diverse
experiences of Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia,
Moldova, and Uzbekistan, highlighted in this book, show that it is
possible to develop a plan to meet these objectives-one that is
comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and
quick to develop. The approach of this volume is predicated on
strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its
emphasis on 'win-win' or 'no regrets' solutions to the multiple
challenges posed by climate change for the farmers of Eastern
Europe and Central Asia. The solutions are measures that increase
resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity
despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and
limit greenhouse gas emissions-also known as 'climate-smart
agriculture'. Looking Beyond the Horizon draws on the experiences
of applying this approach to these four nations in Eastern Europe
and Central Asia with the goal of helping each country mainstream
climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies,
programmes, and investments. The book also highlights the projected
impacts of climate change on agriculture in these countries through
forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns, which are
crucial to farming, and offers a map for navigating the risks and
realising the opportunities. Finally, a detailed explanation of the
approach, as well as lessons learned from its implementation, is
provided for those who would like to implement similar programmes
in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the
world.
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