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The economic operating system keeps crashing. It's time to upgrade
to a new one. Five decades ago, The Limits to Growth shocked the
world by showing that population and industrial growth were pushing
humanity towards a cliff. Today the world recognizes that we are
now at the cliff edge: Earth has crossed multiple planetary
boundaries while widespread inequality is causing deep
instabilities in societies. There seems to be no way out. Earth For
All is both an antidote to despair and a road map to a better
future. Using powerful state-of-the-art computer modeling to
explore policies likely to deliver the most good for the majority
of people, a leading group of scientists and economists from around
the world present five extraordinary turnarounds to achieve
prosperity for all within planetary limits in a single generation.
Coverage includes: Results of new global modeling that indicates
falling well-being and rising social tensions heighten risk of
regional societal collapses Two alternative scenarios -
Too-Little-Too-Late vs The Giant Leap - and what they mean for our
collective future Five system-shifting steps that can upend poverty
and inequality, lift up marginalized people, and transform our food
and energy systems by 2050 A clear pathway to reboot our global
economic system so it works for all people and the planet. Written
in an open, accessible, and inspirational style using clear
language and high impact visuals, Earth For All is a profound
vision for uncertain times and a map to a better future. This
survival guide for humanity is required reading for everyone
concerned about living well on a fragile planet.
In 1972, three scientists from MIT created a computer model that
analyzed global resource consumption and production. Their results
shocked the world and created stirring conversation about global
'overshoot, ' or resource use beyond the carrying capacity of the
planet. Now, preeminent environmental scientists Donnella Meadows,
Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows have teamed up again to update
and expand their original findings in "The Limits to Growth: The 30
Year Global Update,"Meadows, Randers, and Meadows are international
environmental leaders recognized for their groundbreaking research
into early signs of wear on the planet. Citing climate change as
the most tangible example of our current overshoot, the scientists
now provide us with an updated scenario and a plan to reduce our
needs to meet the carrying capacity of the planet.Over the past
three decades, population growth and global warming have forged on
with a striking semblance to the scenarios laid out by the World3
computer model in the original "Limits to Growth," While Meadows,
Randers, and Meadows do not make a practice of predicting future
environmental degradation, they offer an analysis of present and
future trends in resource use, and assess a variety of possible
outcomes.In many ways, the message contained in "Limits to Growth:
The 30-Year Update" is a warning. Overshoot cannot be sustained
without collapse. But, as the authors are careful to point out,
there is reason to believe that humanity can still reverse some of
its damage to Earth if it takes appropriate measures to reduce
inefficiency and waste.Written in refreshingly accessible prose,
"Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update" is a long anticipated
revival ofsome of the original voices in the growing chorus of
sustainability. "Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update" is a work of
stunning intelligence that will expose for humanity the hazy but
critical line between human growth and human development.
This book presents a new System Dynamics model (the ERRE model), a
novel stock and flow consistent global impact assessment model
designed by the authors to address the financial risks emerging
from the interaction between economic growth and environmental
limits under the presence of shocks. Building on the World3-03
Limits to Growth model, the ERRE links the financial system with
the energy, agriculture and climate systems through the real
economy, by means of feedback loops, time lags and non-linear
rationally bounded decision making. Prices and their interaction
with growth, inflation and interest rates are assumed to be the
main driver of economic failure while reaching planetary limits.
The model allows for the stress-testing of fat tail extreme risk
scenarios, such as climate shocks, energy transition, monetary
policies and carbon taxes. Risks are addressed via scenario
analyses, compared to real available data, and assessed in terms of
the economic theory that lies behind. The book outlines the case
for a government led system change within this decade, where the
market alone cannot lead to sustainable prosperity. This book will
be of great interest to scholars of climate change, behavioural,
ecological and evolutionary economics, green finance, and
sustainable development.
This book presents a new System Dynamics model (the ERRE model), a
novel stock and flow consistent global impact assessment model
designed by the authors to address the financial risks emerging
from the interaction between economic growth and environmental
limits under the presence of shocks. Building on the World3-03
Limits to Growth model, the ERRE links the financial system with
the energy, agriculture and climate systems through the real
economy, by means of feedback loops, time lags and non-linear
rationally bounded decision making. Prices and their interaction
with growth, inflation and interest rates are assumed to be the
main driver of economic failure while reaching planetary limits.
The model allows for the stress-testing of fat tail extreme risk
scenarios, such as climate shocks, energy transition, monetary
policies and carbon taxes. Risks are addressed via scenario
analyses, compared to real available data, and assessed in terms of
the economic theory that lies behind. The book outlines the case
for a government led system change within this decade, where the
market alone cannot lead to sustainable prosperity. This book will
be of great interest to scholars of climate change, behavioural,
ecological and evolutionary economics, green finance, and
sustainable development.
Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand
question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of
planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st
century the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint would
stop-either through catastrophic "overshoot and collapse"-or
through well-managed "peak and decline." So, where are we now? And
what does our future look like? In the book 2052, Jorgen Randers,
one of the coauthors of Limits to Growth, issues a progress report
and makes a forecast for the next forty years. To do this, he asked
dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how
our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food,
fisheries, militaries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and
more will take shape in the coming decades. He then synthesized
those scenarios into a global forecast of life as we will most
likely know it in the years ahead. The good news: we will see
impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus
on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But
this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in
population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising
ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased
urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest,
and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens.
Runaway global warming, too, is likely. So, how do we prepare for
the years ahead? With heart, fact, and wisdom, Randers guides us
along a realistic path into the future and discusses what readers
can do to ensure a better life for themselves and their children
during the increasing turmoil of the next forty years.
Why does knowing more mean believing-and doing-less? A prescription
for change The more facts that pile up about global warming, the
greater the resistance to them grows, making it harder to enact
measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare communities
for the inevitable change ahead. It is a catch-22 that starts, says
psychologist and economist Per Espen Stoknes, from an inadequate
understanding of the way most humans think, act, and live in the
world around them. With dozens of examples-from the private sector
to government agencies-Stoknes shows how to retell the story of
climate change and, at the same time, create positive, meaningful
actions that can be supported even by deniers. In What We Think
About When We Try Not To Think About Global Warming, Stoknes not
only masterfully identifies the five main psychological barriers to
climate action, but addresses them with five strategies for how to
talk about global warming in a way that creates action and
solutions, not further inaction and despair. These strategies work
with, rather than against, human nature. They are social, positive,
and simple-making climate-friendly behaviors easy and convenient.
They are also story-based, to help add meaning and create
community, and include the use of signals, or indicators, to gauge
feedback and be constantly responsive. Whether you are working on
the front lines of the climate issue, immersed in the science,
trying to make policy or educate the public, or just an average
person trying to make sense of the cognitive dissonance or grapple
with frustration over this looming issue, What We Think About When
We Try Not To Think About Global Warming moves beyond the
psychological barriers that block progress and opens new doorways
to social and personal transformation.
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