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This groundbreaking study examines patterns of offending among
persistent juvenile offenders. The authors address questions that
have been the focus of criminological debate over the last two
decades. Are there are multiple groups of offenders in the
population with distinct age-crime patterns? Are between-person
differences in criminal offending patterns stable throughout the
offender's life? Is there a relationship between offending at one
time and at a subsequent time of life, after time-stable
differences in criminal propensity are controlled? Ezell and Cohen
address these issues by examining three large, separately drawn
samples of serious youthful offenders from California. Each sample
was tracked over a long time-period, and sophisticated statistical
models were used to test eight empirical hypotheses drawn from
three major theories of crime: population heterogeneity, state
dependence, and dual taxonomy. Each of these three perspectives
offers different predictions about the relationship between age and
crime, and the possibility of crime desistance over the life of
serious chronic offenders. Despite the serious chronic criminality
among the sample offenders, by the time they reached their mid- to
late twenties and continuing into their thirties, each of the six
latent classes of offender identified by the study had begun to
demonstrate a declining number of arrests. This finding has
profound implications for penal policies that impose life sentences
on multiple offenders, such as the Californian 'three strikes and
you're out' which incarcerates inmates for 25 years to life with
their 'third strike' conviction, at precisely the point when they
have begun to grow out of serious crime.
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