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Following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, Congress passed the
Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF), which granted the
President the authority "to use all necessary and appropriate force
against those ... who] planned, authorized, committed, or aided the
terrorist attacks" against the United States. Many persons
subsequently captured during military operations in Afghanistan and
elsewhere were transferred to the U.S. Naval Station at Guantanamo
Bay, Cuba, for detention and possible prosecution before military
tribunals. Although nearly 800 persons have been held at Guantanamo
at some point since early 2002, the substantial majority of
Guantanamo detainees have ultimately been transferred to another
country for continued detention or release. Those detainees who
remain fall into three categories: (1) persons placed in non-penal,
preventive detention to stop them from rejoining hostilities; (2)
persons who face or are expected to face criminal charges; and (3)
persons who have been cleared for transfer or release, whom the
United States continues to detain pending transfer. Although the
Supreme Court ruled in Boumediene v. Bush that Guantanamo detainees
may seek habeas corpus review of the legality of their detention,
several legal issues remain unsettled.
Some officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran have recently
renewed threats to close or exercise control over the Strait of
Hormuz. Iran's threats appear to have been prompted by the likely
imposition of new multilateral sanctions targeting Iran's economic
lifeline-the export of oil and other energy products. In the past,
Iranian leaders have made similar threats and comments when the
country's oil exports have been threatened. However, as in the
past, the prospect of a major disruption of maritime traffic in the
Strait risks damaging Iranian interests. U.S. and allied military
capabilities in the region remain formidable. This makes a
prolonged outright closure of the Strait appear unlikely.
Nevertheless, such threats can and do raise tensions in global
energy markets and leave the United States and other global oil
consumers to consider the risks of another potential conflict in
the Middle East. This report explains Iranian threats to the Strait
of Hormuz, and analyzes the implications of some scenarios for
potential U.S. or international conflict with Iran. These scenarios
include: (1) Outright Closure. An outright closure of the Strait of
Hormuz, a major artery of the global oil market, would be an
unprecedented disruption of global oil supply and contribute to
higher global oil prices. However, at present, this appears to be a
low probability event. Were this to occur, it is not likely to be
prolonged. It would likely trigger a military response from the
United States and others, which could reach beyond simply
reestablishing Strait transit. Iran would also alienate countries
that currently oppose broader oil sanctions. Iran could become more
likely to actually pursue this if few or no countries were willing
to import its oil. (2) Harassment and/or Infrastructure Damage.
Iran could harass tanker traffic through the Strait through a range
of measures without necessarily shutting down all traffic. This
took place during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Also, critical
energy production and export infrastructure could be damaged as a
result of military action by Iran, the United States, or other
actors. Harassment or infrastructure damage could contribute to
lower exports of oil from the Persian Gulf, greater uncertainty
around oil supply, higher shipping costs, and consequently higher
oil prices. However, harassment also runs the risk of triggering a
military response and alienating Iran's remaining oil customers.
(3) Continued Threats. Iranian officials could continue to make
threatening statements without taking action. This could still
raise energy market tensions and contribute to higher oil prices,
though only to the degree that oil market participants take such
threats seriously. If an oil disruption does occur, the United
States has the option of temporarily offsetting its effects through
the release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Such
action could be coordinated with other countries that hold
strategic reserves, as was done with other members of the
International Energy Agency after the disruption of Libyan crude
supplies in 2011. Iran's threats suggest to many experts that
international and multilateral sanctions-and the prospect of
additional sanctions-have begun to affect its political and
strategic calculations. The threats have been coupled with a
publicly announced agreement by Iran to resume talks with six
countries on measures that would assure the international community
that Iran's nuclear program is used for purely peaceful purposes.
Some experts believe that the pressure on Iran's economy, and its
agreement to renewed talks, provide the best opportunity in at
least two years to reach agreement with Iran on curbing its nuclear
program.
The United States is a party to numerous security agreements with
other nations. The topics covered, along with the significance of
the obligations imposed upon agreement parties, may vary. Some
international security agreements entered by the United States,
such as those obliging parties to come to the defense of another in
the event of an attack, involve substantial commitments and have
traditionally been entered as treaties, ratified with the advice
and consent of the Senate. Other agreements dealing with more
technical matters, such as military basing rights or the
application of a host country's laws to U.S. forces stationed
within, are entered more routinely and usually take a form other
than treaty (i.e., as an executive agreement or a nonlegal
political commitment). Occasionally, the substance and form of a
proposed security agreement may become a source of dispute between
Congress and the executive branch. In late 2007, the Bush
Administration announced its intention to negotiate a long-term
security agreement with Iraq that would have committed the United
States to provide security assurances to Iraq and maintain a
long-term military presence in that country. This announcement
became a source of congressional interest, in part because of
statements by Administration officials that such an agreement would
not be submitted to the legislative branch for approval.
Congressional concern dissipated when U.S.-Iraq negotiations
culminated in an agreement that did not contain a long-term
security commitment by the United States, but instead called for
the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq by December 31, 2011. On
May 2, 2012, President Barack Obama and President Hamid Karzai
signed the Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement Between the
United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.
Under the terms of the Agreement, the parties pledge to work
cooperatively in a number of fields, including to promote shared
democratic values, advance long-term security, reinforce regional
security, advance social and economic development, and strengthen
Afghan institutions and governance. Additionally, the Agreement
provides that the United States and Afghanistan shall initiate
negotiations on a Bilateral Security Agreement (with the goal of
concluding such an agreement within a year), which is intended to
replace the existing agreement relating to the status of military
and civilian personnel currently in Afghanistan. It is likely that
future disputes will arise between the political branches regarding
the entering or implementation of international security
agreements. Regardless of the form a security arrangement may take,
Congress has several tools to exercise oversight regarding the
negotiation, form, conclusion, and implementation of the agreement
by the United States. This report begins by providing a general
background on the types of international agreements that are
binding upon the United States, as well as considerations affecting
whether they take the form of a treaty or an executive agreement.
Next, the report discusses historical precedents as to the role
that security agreements have taken, with specific attention paid
to past agreements entered with Afghanistan, Germany, Japan, South
Korea, the Philippines, and Iraq. The report discusses the
oversight role that Congress exercises with respect to entering and
implementing international agreements involving the United States.
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