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Bayes Factors for Forensic Decision Analyses with R provides a
self-contained introduction to computational Bayesian statistics
using R. With its primary focus on Bayes factors supported by data
sets, this book features an operational perspective, practical
relevance, and applicability-keeping theoretical and philosophical
justifications limited. It offers a balanced approach to three
naturally interrelated topics: Probabilistic Inference - Relies on
the core concept of Bayesian inferential statistics, to help
practicing forensic scientists in the logical and balanced
evaluation of the weight of evidence. Decision Making - Features
how Bayes factors are interpreted in practical applications to help
address questions of decision analysis involving the use of
forensic science in the law. Operational Relevance - Combines
inference and decision, backed up with practical examples and
complete sample code in R, including sensitivity analyses and
discussion on how to interpret results in context. Over the past
decades, probabilistic methods have established a firm position as
a reference approach for the management of uncertainty in virtually
all areas of science, including forensic science, with Bayes'
theorem providing the fundamental logical tenet for assessing how
new information-scientific evidence-ought to be weighed. Central to
this approach is the Bayes factor, which clarifies the evidential
meaning of new information, by providing a measure of the change in
the odds in favor of a proposition of interest, when going from the
prior to the posterior distribution. Bayes factors should guide the
scientist's thinking about the value of scientific evidence and
form the basis of logical and balanced reporting practices, thus
representing essential foundations for rational decision making
under uncertainty. This book would be relevant to students,
practitioners, and applied statisticians interested in inference
and decision analyses in the critical field of forensic science. It
could be used to support practical courses on Bayesian statistics
and decision theory at both undergraduate and graduate levels, and
will be of equal interest to forensic scientists and practitioners
of Bayesian statistics for driving their evaluations and the use of
R for their purposes. This book is Open Access.
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