I ?nd it impossible to write a preface to this work, without
discovering a little of the enthusiasm which I have contracted from
an attention to it. Joseph Priestley. The History and Present State
of Electricity. It is generally considered bad form in writing,
unless on matters autob- graphic,
tomakeunbridleduseoftheperpendicularpronoun. Thereaderof the
present book, however, may well wonder why one would want to study
1 the life and works of Thomas Bayes, this strangely neglected
topic, and it is only by a reluctant use of the ?rst person
singular on the part of the author that this legitimate question
can be answered. It was in the late 1960s that my interest in
various aspects of subjective probability was awakened by some of
the papers of I. J. ( Jack ) Good, and this was followed by the
reading of works such as Harold Je?reys s Theory of Probability. In
many of these the (apparently simple) result known as Bayes s
Theorem played a pivotal r ole, and it struck me that it might be
interesting to ?nd out a bit more about Thomas Bayes himself. In
trying to satisfy this curiosity in spasmodic periods over many
years I discovered that little information seemed to be available.
Writings by John D."
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