This book is a full-scale exposition of Charles Manski's new
methodology for analyzing empirical questions in the social
sciences. He recommends that researchers first ask what can be
learned from data alone, and then ask what can be learned when data
are combined with credible weak assumptions. Inferences predicated
on weak assumptions, he argues, can achieve wide consensus, while
ones that require strong assumptions almost inevitably are subject
to sharp disagreements.
Building on the foundation laid in the author's "Identification
Problems in the Social Sciences" (Harvard, 1995), the book's
fifteen chapters are organized in three parts. Part I studies
prediction with missing or otherwise incomplete data. Part II
concerns the analysis of treatment response, which aims to predict
outcomes when alternative treatment rules are applied to a
population. Part III studies prediction of choice behavior.
Each chapter juxtaposes developments of methodology with
empirical or numerical illustrations. The book employs a simple
notation and mathematical apparatus, using only basic elements of
probability theory.
General
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