This book introduces a new form of argumentative analysis:
rhetorical heuremes. The method applies the concepts of heuristic
thinking, probability, and contingency in order to develop a better
understanding of complex arguments in classical oratory. A new
theory is required because Greek and Roman rhetoric cannot provide
detailed answers to problems of strategic argumentation in the
analysis of speeches. Building on scholarship in Ciceronian
oratory, this book moves beyond the extant terminology and employs
a concept of heuristic reasoning derived from the psychology of
decision making and mathematical problem solving. The author
analyses selected passages from Cicero's forensic speeches where
arguments of probability are deployed, and shows that the Sophistic
concept of probability can link ancient rhetoric and modern
theories of argumentation. Six groups of heuremes are identified,
each of which represents a form of probabilistic reasoning by which
the orator plays upon the perception of the jurors.
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