Models to forecast changes in mortality, morbidity, and disability
in elderly populations are essential to national and state policies
for health and welfare programs. This volume presents a
wide-ranging survey of the forecasting of health of elderly
populations, including the modelling of the incidence of chronic
diseases in the elderly, the differing perspectives of actuarial
and health care statistics, and an assessment of the impact of new
technologies on the elderly population. Amongst the topics covered
are - uncertainties in projections from census and social security
data and actuarial approaches to forecasting - plausible ranges for
population growth using biol ogical models and epidemiological time
series data - the financing of long term care programs - the
effects of major disabling diseases on health expenditures -
forecasting cancer risks and risk factors As a result, this
wide-ranging volume will become an indispensable reference for all
those whose research touches on these topics.
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