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Future of Post-Human Probability - Towards a New Theory of Objectivity & Subjectivity (Hardcover)
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Future of Post-Human Probability - Towards a New Theory of Objectivity & Subjectivity (Hardcover)
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Is the degree of probability that an individual holds when betting
on a particular outcome really so subjective that, as Frank Ramsey
once argued, "objective logical relations" do not exist and that
"probability is 'the logic of partial belief"? (WK 2012a) This
subjective interpretation of probability can be contrasted with an
objective view by John Keynes, who argued instead that "logical
probabilities are conceived to be objective, logical relations
between propositions (or sentences), and hence not to depend in any
way upon belief". (WK 2012) Contrary to these opposing
interpretations (and other ones as will be discussed in the book),
probability (in relation to both objectivity and subjectivity) are
neither possible (nor impossible) nor desirable (or undesirable) to
the extent that the respective ideologues (on different sides)
would like us to believe. Surely, this questioning of the opposing
interpretations on probability does not entail that probability is
useless, or that those fields related to probability (like
"statistics, finance, gambling, science, artificial
intelligence/machine learning and philosophy") are not worth
studying. Needless to say, neither of these extreme views is
reasonable. Instead, this book offers an alternative way to
understand the future of probability, especially in the dialectic
context of objectivity and subjectivity -- while learning from
different approaches in the literature but without favouring any
one of them (nor integrating them, since they are not necessarily
compatible with each other). More specifically, this book offers a
new theory (that is, the interpretivist theory of probability) in
order to go beyond the existing approaches in a novel way. To
understand this, the book is organised in four chapters. This
seminal project will fundamentally change the way that we think
about probability in relation to objectivity and subjectivity from
the combined perspectives of the mind, nature, society, and
culture, with enormous implications for the human future and what I
originally called its "post-human" fate.
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