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The Measurement of Economic Relationships (Paperback, Softcover reprint of hardcover 1st ed. 2004)
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The Measurement of Economic Relationships (Paperback, Softcover reprint of hardcover 1st ed. 2004)
Series: Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, 41
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Astranger in academia cannot but be impressed by the apparent
uniformity and precision of the methodology currently applied to
the measurement of economic relationships. In scores of journal
articles and other studies, a theoretical argument is typically
presented to justify the position that a certain variable is
related to certain other, possibly causal, variables. Regression or
a related method is applied to a set of observations on these
variables, and the conclusion often emerges that the causa,l
variables are indeed "significant" at a certain "level," thereby
lending support to the theoretical argument-an argument presumably
formulated independently of the observations. A variable may be
declared significant (and few doubt that this does not mean
important) at, say, the 0. 05 level, but not the 0. 01. The effects
of the variables are calculated to many significant digits, and are
often accompanied by intervals and forecasts of not quite obvious
meaning but certainly of reassuring "confidence. " The uniformity
is also evident in the many mathematically advanced text books of
statistics and econometrics, and in their less rigorous
introductory versions for students in economics or business. It is
reflected in the tools of the profession: computer programs, from
the generaiones addressed to the incidental researcher to the
dedicated and sophisticated programs used by the experts, display
the same terms and implement the same methodology. In short, there
appears no visible alternative to the established methodol ogy and
no sign of reservat ions concerning its validity.
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