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Anticipatory Water Management - Using ensemble weather forecasts for critical events - UNESCO-IHE Phd Thesis (Hardcover)
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Anticipatory Water Management - Using ensemble weather forecasts for critical events - UNESCO-IHE Phd Thesis (Hardcover)
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Day-to-day water management is challenged by meteorological
extremes, causing floods and droughts. Often operational water
managers are informed too late about these upcoming events to be
able to respond and mitigate their effects, such as by taking flood
control measures or even requiring evacuation of local inhabitants.
Therefore, the use of weather forecast information with
hydrological models can be invaluable for the operational water
manager to expand the forecast horizon and to have time to take
appropriate action. This is called Anticipatory Water Management.
Anticipatory actions may have adverse effects, such as when flood
control actions turn out to have been unnecessary, because the
actual rainfall was less than predicted. Therefore the uncertainty
of the forecasts and the associated risks of applying Anticipatory
Water Management have to be assessed. To facilitate this
assessment, meteorological institutes are providing ensemble
predictions to estimate the dynamic uncertainty of weather
forecasts. This dissertation presents ways of improving the end-use
of ensemble predictions in Anticipatory Water Management.
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