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This book examines why elected leaders pursue foreign policies that
are remarkably distant from their proposed policies. To investigate
this pattern this book develops a model of how the foreign policy
preferences of the executive and the government in the legislature
interact over the electoral cycle to affect democratic leaders'
foreign policy choices. The executive is cross-pressured when the
foreign policy that the legislature wants is not the same policy
that the executive's constituents want. The executive must choose a
policy that balances the conflicting demands of remaining in a
productive government (pleasing the legislature) and obtaining
votes in the next election (pleasing constituents). Getting votes
is clearly more important when elections are near, so democratic
leaders weigh these competing demands differently over the course
of the electoral cycle. This is what can lead to trends in foreign
policy: the executive first chooses policies that mollify the
legislature and later reverts to the policies that please his or
her constituents when elections draw near. The book pursues these
ideas with a game theoretic model and a set of statistical
assessment of multiple cases (Israel and the Palestinians, the US
and the USSR, and others) to provide a rigorous and logical
framework to the argument. The central findings are that democratic
institutions and processes (i.e. the domestic context) have a
predictable influence on foreign policy choices over time; some
configurations of preferences, electoral systems, and election
timing are not conducive to peace. Rather than the diversionary
hypothesis that conflict is likely before an election, as a boost
to executive popularity would be particularly valuable at that
moment, a more nuanced finding is reported.
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The Key
Frank Scott, Nisa Montie
Hardcover
R618
Discovery Miles 6 180
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