Designing and Evaluating E-Managemnet Decision Tools presents the most relevant concepts for designing intelligent decision tools in an Internet-based multimedia environment and assessing the tools using concepts of statistical design of experiments. The design principle is based on the visual interactive decision modeling (VIDEMO) paradigm. Several case studies are discussed in detail, referring to online preference elicitation, collaborative decision making, negotiation and conflict resolution, and marketing decision optimization.

(See www.beroggi.net for more info on the book and Visual Interactive Decision Modeling)

Advanced communications and information technologies provide the basis for operational risk management. In order to support managers in real-time risk assessment and decision-making, the advanced technologies must be complemented by an appropriate reasoning logic. This book presents such a reasoning logic for operational risk management. Chapter 1 discusses the need for operational risk management and the feasibility of its use based upon advances in sensing, mobile communications, and satellite positioning technologies. Chapter II presents a reasoning logic for operational risk management that capitalizes upon these developments. Chapter III illustrates the integration of the reasoning logic in hypermedia, multimedia, and virtual reality systems, coupled with the capabilities provided by the Internet. Chapters IV-VI illustrate the realism of operational risk management for hazardous material transportation, emergency response, air raid command, and emergency response at a nuclear power generation facility. The book closes with an experimental assessment of the logic and associated decision aids in Chapter VII. Audience: Researchers, who will find the most recent advances in operational risk management with experimental assessments. Practitioners, who are provided with a detailed description of operational risk management and the latest advances in information and communications technologies to implement this new approach for managing risks in operational settings, such as transportation of hazardous materials and emergency response. Students, who will learn the basic concepts in theory and practice of building models for decision and risk analysis, and embedding them into commercial software as decision support systems.

Advances in information technology provide opportunities for the development of computer systems that support risk managers in complex tasks. Leading experts report on the potentials and limitations concerning the use of computer systems in risk management. Their reports are based on many years of experience in their fields which include: risk analysis, systems engineering, geographic information systems, decision support systems, human--machine systems, and psychology. The book addresses four major issues in computer supported risk management: Conceptual aspects: the role, design, and use of computers in risk management Planning and policy analysis: transportation, equity analysis, emergency management, group decision making Operational decision making: nuclear power monitoring, emergency response, public safety warning, satellite tracking Commercial applications: GIS from IIASA, InterClair from IAEA, EPA software, cleanup decision support software survey. This book is meant for researchers, who will find the emerging issues in risk management that are motivated by the encounter of new tasks and novel technology; practitioners who will have descriptions and references of the state-of-the-art models and software; and students who will learn the basic concepts needed to develop advanced information and decision support systems in risk management.

The effectiveness of policy decisions depends not only on the quality of the analysis but also on the communication between analyst and decision-maker. As a result, this book employs the following three-step decomposition of the decision modeling process throughout the book: (1) visual-structural modeling, (2) analytic-formal modeling, and (3) algorithmic resolution modeling. The 10 chapters address the most relevant issues in decision modeling in policy management: the problem-solving process, visual decision modeling, descriptive and normative preference elicitation and aggregation methods, dealing with uncertainty in dynamic problems, social choices, conflict resolution, and constraint-optimization problems. A problem-oriented engineering approach has been taken throughout the book because this approach covers the most popular decision modeling issues in: (1) decision analysis (decision trees, probabilistic influence diagrams, fuzzy decision-making, risk analysis), (2) operations research (facility location, scheduling, linear and non-linear programming, network optimization), and (3) economics (cost-benefit analysis, capital budgeting, shadow prices, marginal rate of substitution, net present value, game theory). Decision Modeling in Policy Management: Introduces a visual approach to decision modeling in policy management (over 100 figures and illustrations), integrating the European School (outranking relations, dimension reduction, ordinal preferences, rank correlation) and the American School (utility theory, analytic hierarchy process, game theory, constraint-optimization). Presents analytic approaches in the context of structural, formal, and resolution modeling; references tofurther practical and theoretical readings; intuitive visual reasoning; detailed numerical examples replacing theorems and formal proofs. Discusses new decision analytical features: visual interactive preference ordering; dynamic plots in virtual negotiation; hypermedia influence diagram modeling. Integrates 100 problems with worked-out solutions; an Internet syllabus with assignments, students comments, and Internet multimedia software are available.

Advanced communications and information technologies provide the basis for operational risk management. In order to support managers in real-time risk assessment and decision-making, the advanced technologies must be complemented by an appropriate reasoning logic. This book presents such a reasoning logic for operational risk management. Chapter 1 discusses the need for operational risk management and the feasibility of its use based upon advances in sensing, mobile communications, and satellite positioning technologies. Chapter II presents a reasoning logic for operational risk management that capitalizes upon these developments. Chapter III illustrates the integration of the reasoning logic in hypermedia, multimedia, and virtual reality systems, coupled with the capabilities provided by the Internet. Chapters IV-VI illustrate the realism of operational risk management for hazardous material transportation, emergency response, air raid command, and emergency response at a nuclear power generation facility. The book closes with an experimental assessment of the logic and associated decision aids in Chapter VII. Audience: Researchers, who will find the most recent advances in operational risk management with experimental assessments. Practitioners, who are provided with a detailed description of operational risk management and the latest advances in information and communications technologies to implement this new approach for managing risks in operational settings, such as transportation of hazardous materials and emergency response. Students, who will learn the basic concepts in theory and practice of building models for decision and risk analysis, and embedding them into commercial software as decision support systems.

Advances in information technology provide opportunities for the development of computer systems that support risk managers in complex tasks. Leading experts report on the potentials and limitations concerning the use of computer systems in risk management. Their reports are based on many years of experience in their fields which include: risk analysis, systems engineering, geographic information systems, decision support systems, human--machine systems, and psychology. The book addresses four major issues in computer supported risk management: Conceptual aspects: the role, design, and use of computers in risk management Planning and policy analysis: transportation, equity analysis, emergency management, group decision making Operational decision making: nuclear power monitoring, emergency response, public safety warning, satellite tracking Commercial applications: GIS from IIASA, InterClair from IAEA, EPA software, cleanup decision support software survey. This book is meant for researchers, who will find the emerging issues in risk management that are motivated by the encounter of new tasks and novel technology; practitioners who will have descriptions and references of the state-of-the-art models and software; and students who will learn the basic concepts needed to develop advanced information and decision support systems in risk management.

Designing and Evaluating E-Managemnet Decision Tools presents the most relevant concepts for designing intelligent decision tools in an Internet-based multimedia environment and assessing the tools using concepts of statistical design of experiments. The design principle is based on the visual interactive decision modeling (VIDEMO) paradigm. Several case studies are discussed in detail, referring to online preference elicitation, collaborative decision making, negotiation and conflict resolution, and marketing decision optimization.

(See www.beroggi.net for more info on the book and Visual Interactive Decision Modeling)

The effectiveness of policy decisions depends not only on the quality of the analysis but also on the communication between analyst and decision-maker. As a result, this book employs the following three-step decomposition of the decision modeling process throughout the book: (1) visual-structural modeling, (2) analytic-formal modeling, and (3) algorithmic resolution modeling. The 10 chapters address the most relevant issues in decision modeling in policy management: the problem-solving process, visual decision modeling, descriptive and normative preference elicitation and aggregation methods, dealing with uncertainty in dynamic problems, social choices, conflict resolution, and constraint-optimization problems. A problem-oriented engineering approach has been taken throughout the book because this approach covers the most popular decision modeling issues in: (1) decision analysis (decision trees, probabilistic influence diagrams, fuzzy decision-making, risk analysis), (2) operations research (facility location, scheduling, linear and non-linear programming, network optimization), and (3) economics (cost-benefit analysis, capital budgeting, shadow prices, marginal rate of substitution, net present value, game theory). Decision Modeling in Policy Management: Introduces a visual approach to decision modeling in policy management (over 100 figures and illustrations), integrating the European School (outranking relations, dimension reduction, ordinal preferences, rank correlation) and the American School (utility theory, analytic hierarchy process, game theory, constraint-optimization). Presents analytic approaches in the context of structural, formal, and resolution modeling; references tofurther practical and theoretical readings; intuitive visual reasoning; detailed numerical examples replacing theorems and formal proofs. Discusses new decision analytical features: visual interactive preference ordering; dynamic plots in virtual negotiation; hypermedia influence diagram modeling. Integrates 100 problems with worked-out solutions; an Internet syllabus with assignments, students comments, and Internet multimedia software are available.