The effectiveness of policy decisions depends not only on the
quality of the analysis but also on the communication between
analyst and decision-maker. As a result, this book employs the
following three-step decomposition of the decision modeling process
throughout the book: (1) visual-structural modeling, (2)
analytic-formal modeling, and (3) algorithmic resolution modeling.
The 10 chapters address the most relevant issues in decision
modeling in policy management: the problem-solving process, visual
decision modeling, descriptive and normative preference elicitation
and aggregation methods, dealing with uncertainty in dynamic
problems, social choices, conflict resolution, and
constraint-optimization problems. A problem-oriented engineering
approach has been taken throughout the book because this approach
covers the most popular decision modeling issues in: (1) decision
analysis (decision trees, probabilistic influence diagrams, fuzzy
decision-making, risk analysis), (2) operations research (facility
location, scheduling, linear and non-linear programming, network
optimization), and (3) economics (cost-benefit analysis, capital
budgeting, shadow prices, marginal rate of substitution, net
present value, game theory). Decision Modeling in Policy
Management: Introduces a visual approach to decision modeling in
policy management (over 100 figures and illustrations), integrating
the European School (outranking relations, dimension reduction,
ordinal preferences, rank correlation) and the American School
(utility theory, analytic hierarchy process, game theory,
constraint-optimization). Presents analytic approaches in the
context of structural, formal, and resolution modeling; references
tofurther practical and theoretical readings; intuitive visual
reasoning; detailed numerical examples replacing theorems and
formal proofs. Discusses new decision analytical features: visual
interactive preference ordering; dynamic plots in virtual
negotiation; hypermedia influence diagram modeling. Integrates 100
problems with worked-out solutions; an Internet syllabus with
assignments, students comments, and Internet multimedia software
are available.
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