The quickening pace of Iran's nuclear activities has produced an international sense of urgency. Sanctions have intensified, while fears of an Israeli strike abound. Talks have briefly eased the tension, before failing due to fundamental differences between Iran and the West. There seem to be dim prospects for peaceful resolution; the worry is that this long-running dispute could become a permanent crisis. This Whitehall Paper tackles the Iranian nuclear dispute in its full context to determine what possible compromises may exist and how they may be achieved. While the crisis is embedded in a set of overlapping security disputes between Iran on the one hand, and the United States, Arab regional powers, Israel and the broader 'West' on the other, it is also important to analyse it in a comparative and thematic context. Iran's programme is not sui generis: previous experience can help to inform our assessments of how Iran will be affected by, and respond to, intense multilateral economic and political pressure, and what its nuclear posture might be. This study also examines how policy responses by the West should evolve were Iran to resume its alleged nuclear-weapons programme, continue to undertake some degree of near-weaponisation or weaponisation, or test and deploy nuclear weapons. The Permanent Crisis questions the assumptions and logic of alarmist studies - those which see a nuclear Iran as fanatical, unresponsive to deterrence and certain to precipitate a wave of unstoppable nuclear proliferation - whilst outlining the very real risks that would flow from such a failure of Western policy.

India is growing into one of Asia's most important military powers. Its defence budget has more than doubled in the past decade, and it imports more arms than anyone else in the world. But India is still seen as a land power focused on long, disputed and militarised borders with Pakistan and China rather than the global military force it was in the first half of the twentieth century under British rule. Is this changing? India is acquiring increasing numbers of key platforms - aircraft carriers, amphibious ships, refuelling tankers and transport aircraft - that are extending its reach to the Indian Ocean littoral and beyond. But most accounts of this build-up have been impressionistic and partial. Indian Power Projection assesses the strength, reach and purposes of India's maturing capabilities. It offers a systematic assessment of India's ability to conduct long-range airstrikes from land and sea, transport and convey airborne and amphibious forces, and develop the institutional and material enablers that turn platforms into capabilities. It draws extensively on the lessons of modern expeditionary operations, and considers how India's growing interests might shape where and how it uses these evolving capabilities in the future. This study finds that Indian power projection is in a nascent stage: limited in number, primarily of use against much-weaker adversaries, and deficient in some key supporting capabilities. India's defence posture will continue to be shaped by local threats, rather than distant interests. Indian leaders remain uncomfortable with talk of military intervention and expeditionary warfare, associating these with colonial and superpower excess. But as the country's power, interests and capabilities all grow, it is likely that India will once more find itself using military force beyond its land borders.

India is growing into one of Asia s most important military powers. Its defence budget has more than doubled in the past decade, and it imports more arms than anyone else in the world. But India is still seen as a land power focused on long, disputed and militarised borders with Pakistan and China rather than the global military force it was in the first half of the twentieth century under British rule. Is this changing? India is acquiring increasing numbers of key platforms aircraft carriers, amphibious ships, refuelling tankers and transport aircraft that are extending its reach to the Indian Ocean littoral and beyond. But most accounts of this build-up have been impressionistic and partial. Indian Power Projection assesses the strength, reach and purposes of India's maturing capabilities. It offers a systematic assessment of India s ability to conduct long-range airstrikes from land and sea, transport and convey airborne and amphibious forces, and develop the institutional and material enablers that turn platforms into capabilities. It draws extensively on the lessons of modern expeditionary operations, and considers how India s growing interests might shape where and how it uses these evolving capabilities in the future. This study finds that Indian power projection is in a nascent stage: limited in number, primarily of use against much-weaker adversaries, and deficient in some key supporting capabilities. India s defence posture will continue to be shaped by local threats, rather than distant interests. Indian leaders remain uncomfortable with talk of military intervention and expeditionary warfare, associating these with colonial and superpower excess. But as the country s power, interests and capabilities all grow, it is likely that India will once more find itself using military force beyond its land borders.

The quickening pace of Iran s nuclear activities has produced an international sense of urgency. Sanctions have intensified, while fears of an Israeli strike abound. Talks have briefly eased the tension, before failing due to fundamental differences between Iran and the West. There seem to be dim prospects for peaceful resolution; the worry is that this long-running dispute could become a permanent crisis. This Whitehall Paper tackles the Iranian nuclear dispute in its full context to determine what possible compromises may exist and how they may be achieved. While the crisis is embedded in a set of overlapping security disputes between Iran on the one hand, and the United States, Arab regional powers, Israel and the broader West on the other, it is also important to analyse it in a comparative and thematic context. Iran s programme is not sui generis: previous experience can help to inform our assessments of how Iran will be affected by, and respond to, intense multilateral economic and political pressure, and what its nuclear posture might be. This study also examines how policy responses by the West should evolve were Iran to resume its alleged nuclear-weapons programme, continue to undertake some degree of near-weaponisation or weaponisation, or test and deploy nuclear weapons. The Permanent Crisis questions the assumptions and logic of alarmist studies those which see a nuclear Iran as fanatical, unresponsive to deterrence and certain to precipitate a wave of unstoppable nuclear proliferation whilst outlining the very real risks that would flow from such a failure of Western policy.