In the last decade, both developed nations and emerging economies have been rocked by the effects of global financial crises precipitated by a baffling range of causes, from sub-prime mortgage rates to outbreaks of virulent disease. Financial and governmental bodies have acknowledged the pressing need for algorithmic models capable of predicting such crises in order to inform interventionary measures, yet to date, no single model has emerged that is robust and agile enough to sufficiently meet that task while maintaining a useful signal-to-noise ratio, making them little more reliable than a carnival fortune-teller. The Handbook of Research on Financial and Banking Crisis Prediction through Early Warning Systems addresses the inequity of developed and developing nations from the bottom up through an exploration of current literature, specific case-studies, and data-based recommendations for new crisis indicators. Touching on such topics as the Greek debt crisis, electronic banking, and financial crises in developing economies, this publication targets an audience of academics, financial analysts, researchers, post-graduate students, and policymakers working in the fields of international finance and liability management.

The collapse of the international banking & fiat currency system is inevitable. This aide memoire is to give the interested layman an insight into why.

Crisis and Recovery: Learning from the Asian Experience is a collection of selected articles related to the Asian experience with two crises - the Asian financial crisis in 1997-98 and the global financial crisis of 2007-08 - written by Dr Jong-Wha Lee, former chief economist of the Asian Development Bank. These papers are grouped into three broad topics: Anatomy of Asian Growth and Crises, Asian Financial Crises: Responses and Lessons, and Global Financial Crisis and Challenges to Asia's Sustained Growth.The topics include the relation of the East Asia's development strategies with the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, the causes of the Asian financial crisis, the desirability of IMF programs, the assessment of recovery and structural reforms, the process of spillovers of the global financial crisis to Asia, regional and global economic linkages, the role of China and the renminbi, and the long-term growth projections of Asian economies.The research collected in this book will be very useful for policymakers who want to learn from the Asian experience with the crises and it is a key contribution to ongoing research and policy debates on the future of Asian economies.

In August 2007, asset-backed securities (ABS), particularly those backed by subprime mortgages, suddenly became illiquid and fell sharply in value as an unprecedented housing boom turned into a housing bust. Losses on the many ABS held by financial firms depleted their capital. Uncertainty about future losses on illiquid and complex assets led to firms having reduced access to private liquidity, sometimes catastrophically. In September 2008, the financial crisis reached panic proportions, with some large financial firms failing or having the government step in to prevent their failure. Initially, the government approach was largely ad hoc, addressing the problems at individual institutions on a case-by-case basis. The panic in September 2008 convinced policy makers that a system-wide approach was needed, and Congress created the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in October 2008. In addition to TARP, the Treasury, Federal Reserve (Fed) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) implemented broad lending and guarantee programs. The primary goal of the various interventions was to end the financial panic and restore normalcy to financial markets, rather than to make a profit for taxpayers. This book presents how much the programs ultimately cost (or benefited) the taxpayers based on straightforward cash accounting as reported by the various agencies. This book describes the various actions by the Federal Reserve to stabilise the financial markets and how those actions are likely to affect the federal budget in coming years. The book also presents estimates of the risk-adjusted (or fair-value) subsidies that the Federal Reserve provided to financial institutions through its emergency programs.

Although there have been numerous studies of the causes and consequences of the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2010 in the US and abroad, many of these were undertaken only for a small number of countries and before the financial and economic effects were fully realized and before various governmental policy responses were decided upon and actually implemented. This book aims to fill these voids by providing a more thorough assessment now that the worst events and the regulatory reforms are sufficiently behind us and much more information about these developments is available. It reviews and analyzes the causes and consequences of and the regulatory responses to the Great Financial Crisis, particularly from a public policy viewpoint. In the process, it explores such intriguing questions as: What caused the crisis? How did the crisis differ across countries? What is the outlook for another crisis, and when? This is a must read for those who are trying to find answers to these questions.

The European Union banking and securities legislation immediately before the global financial crisis is described in detail. Two significant inputs to the post-crisis legislation are considered in this book the international regulatory response through the Group of Twenty (G20) countries and the Financial Services Board, and the European Supervisory Authorities which comprise the European Banking Authority, a European Securities and Markets Authority and a European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority. Aspects of the post-crisis securities and banking legislation are described with a comparison made with the pre-crisis legislation, in places in which this is possible. The securities legislation, in particular, has shown a considerable increase in its volume and contents in the last few years, and some of these provisions are reported and discussed. The final chapter considers the European Commissions plans for the completion of the Economic and Monetary Union, from the British perspective in light of the speech made by the then British Prime Minister, the Right Honourable Margaret Thatcher MP, at Bruges in September 1988. The global financial crisis exposed vulnerabilities in the Economic and Monetary Union, which the Commission is attempting to address with plans for further integration. It is not clear that this is wholly in the interests of Europes citizens.

A titanic battle is being waged for Europe's integrity and soul, with the forces of reason and humanism losing out to growing irrationality, authoritarianism, and malice, promoting inequality and austerity. The whole world has a stake in a victory for rationality, liberty, democracy, and humanism. In January 2015, Yanis Varoufakis, an economics professor teaching in Austin, Texas, was elected to the Greek parliament with more votes than any other member of parliament. He was appointed finance minister and, in the whirlwind five months that followed, everything he had warned about- the perils of the euro's faulty design, the European Union's shortsighted austerity policies, financialized crony capitalism, American complicity and rising authoritarianism- was confirmed as the troika" (the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and European Commission) stonewalled his efforts to resolve Greece's economic crisis. Here, Varoufakis delivers a fresh look at the history of Europe's crisis and America's central role in it. He presents the ultimate case against austerity, proposing concrete policies for Europe that are necessary to address its crisis and avert contagion to America, China, and the rest of the world. With passionate, informative, and at times humorous prose, he warns that the implosion of an admittedly crisis-ridden and deeply irrational European monetary union should, and can, be avoided at all cost.

Strategy management has always been a crucial business aspect that a company must understand to remain successful in the business world. However, there are a number of different approaches that a company can employ in order to differentiate themselves from thecompetition. Knowledge Management for Competitive Advantage During Economic Crisis brings together the various approaches that affect the superiority of a company's organizational performance and the gains they can make over their competitors. By focusing on concepts such as organizational learning and intellectual capital, this book is an indispensable reference source for researchers, practitioners, graduate students, and business managers interested in understanding what approaches are necessary to ensure superior organizational performance.

Is globalization a recipe for war? In the nineteenth century, liberals exulted that the spread of commerce would usher in prosperity and peace, but these dreams were dashed by imperial squabbles, the carnage of 1914-18, and the protectionism, depression, and conflict that followed. In the wake of World War II, the globalists tried again. With the Communist bloc disconnected from the global economy, a new international order was created, buttressing free trade with the informal supremacy of the United States. But this benign period is coming to an end. Expertly combining political, economic, and military history in the manner of Niall Ferguson and Paul Kennedy, James Macdonald stresses that if industrial nations are more prosperous, they are also more vulnerable. While a dependence on trade may push toward cooperation, the attendant insecurity pulls in the opposite direction, leading to conflict. In Macdonald's telling, World War I's naval blockades were as important as its trenches, and World War II was a struggle for raw materials in a world that had rejected free trade. Today, the Pax Americana that kept insecurities at bay is being undermined by China's rise, with potentially dangerous consequences. Rich in original historical analysis and enlivened by vivid quotation, When Globalization Fails recasts what we know about war, E peace, and trade, and raises vital questions about the future.

A #1 Sunday Times bestseller [UK] A titanic battle is being waged for Europe's integrity and soul, with the forces of reason and humanism losing out to growing irrationality, authoritarianism, and malice, promoting inequality and austerity. The whole world has a stake in a victory for rationality, liberty, democracy, and humanism. In January 2015, Yanis Varoufakis, an economics professor teaching in Austin, Texas, was elected to the Greek parliament with more votes than any other member of parliament. He was appointed finance minister and, in the whirlwind five months that followed, everything he had warned about,the perils of the euro's faulty design, the European Union's shortsighted austerity policies, financialized crony capitalism, American complicity and rising authoritarianism,was confirmed as the troika" (the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund, and European Commission) stonewalled his efforts to resolve Greece's economic crisis. Here, Varoufakis delivers a fresh look at the history of Europe's crisis and America's central role in it. He presents the ultimate case against austerity, proposing concrete policies for Europe that are necessary to address its crisis and avert contagion to America, China, and the rest of the world. With passionate, informative, and at times humorous prose, he warns that the implosion of an admittedly crisis-ridden and deeply irrational European monetary union should, and can, be avoided at all cost.

In the wake of the recent global financial crisis and against the backdrop of the ongoing global financial sector reforms, macroprudential policy is being increasingly seen as a "must-do" reform. At the same time, some policy makers are keen on having a better understanding of what it is and how it works before they embark on implementing it. This Guide attempts to meet this need by providing easy-to-comprehend inputs and practical guidance for establishing and operating macroprudential policy framework as appropriate for relevant jurisdictions. While the elements discussed here can be relevant for several jurisdictions, this work is intended to primarily cater to the needs of policy makers in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) with the following characteristics: a simple bank-dominated system where other financial sector segments are small but growing; banks are supervised by the central bank; financial sector regulation and supervision is not fully integrated; and availability of quality data is not assured. The Guide begins with an introduction to the concept of macroprudential approach to policy and supervision, discusses the available options for institutional framework, including appropriate mandate, powers, structures, and governance arrangements. Next, it explains the components and objectives of early warning systems, how they can be designed and what makes them effective. The Guide also analyses the available range of macroprudential policy instruments, the risks or stresses that they can address and how these can be deployed. All through, the Guide also flags the challenges that the authorities are likely to encounter while establishing and operating macroprudential policy framework and components. Unique combinations of institutional, policy, and legal frameworks in each jurisdiction make it difficult to apply across-the-board and formulaic macroprudential policy solutions. Therefore, any guidance will need appropriate customization and nuancing to achieve best results in each jurisdiction. Accordingly, while offering practical advice, the Guide encourages the authorities to ask the right questions rather than trying to answer all questions that might be raised. Macroprudential policy can promote financial system stability, but it is not meant to replace other public policies, least of all a jurisdiction's monetary and microprudential policies.

As the global economy struggles to avoid meltdown, so the greatest Ponzi scheme in history approaches its final death rattle. Politicians have stood by and watched the financial industry create a massive overhang of debt, a mountain of low quality assets - and ultimately, an economic disaster which has dwarfed all others. The Eurozone crisis and the LIBOR manipulaton scandal are just two symptoms of a much broader problem: one of vastly excessive debt, regulatory failure, a culture of deceit on Wall Street and the City of London, and governments that have promised their citizens far more than they can deliver. In Planet Ponzi, Mitch Feierstein tells you what's happened, what will happen next and how to protect yourself and your family.

Working through the Crisis documents how the Great Recession affected employment outcomes in developing countries and how those countries governments responded. The chapters comprise a unique compilation of data and analysis from different sources, including an inventory of policies implemented during the crisis, among countries in Latin America, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Africa. The effects of the crisis depended on the size of the shock, the channels through which it was manifested, the structure of institutions in the country especially labor institutions and the specific policy responses undertaken. Although these factors resulted in differing outcomes among the countries studied, common patterns emerge. In terms of impacts, overall adjustments involved reductions in earnings growth rather than in employment growth, although the quality of employment was also affected. Youth were doubly affected, being more likely to experience unemployment and reduced wages. Men seemed to have been more severely affected than women. In most countries where data are available, there were no major differences between skilled and unskilled workers or between those living in urban and rural areas. In terms of policy responses, this crisis was characterized by a high prevalence of active interventions in the labor market and the expansion of income protection systems, as well as countercyclical stimulus measures. When timed well and sufficiently large, these stimulus measures were effective in reducing adverse employment effects. Specific sectoral stimulus policies also had beneficial effects when they were well targeted. However, social protection and labor market policy responses were often ad hoc, and not in line with the types of adjustments workers experienced. As a result, these policies and programs were typically biased toward formal sector workers and did not necessarily reach those who needed them the most. In retrospect, there is a sense that developing countries were not well prepared to deal with the effects of the Great Recession, and that the further development of social protection systems is crucial to better protect workers and their families from the next crisis."

Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? In order to answer these questions, William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, and why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.

Robert Nelson's Reaching for Heaven on Earth, Economics as Religion, and The New Holy Wars: Economic Religion versus Environmental Religion in Contemporary America, read almost like a trilogy, exploring and charting the boundaries of theology and economics from the Western foundations of ancient Greece through the traditions that Nelson holds up as "Protestant" and "Roman," and on into modern economic forms such as Marxism and] capitalism, and (in his most recent The New Holy Wars), environmentalism. Nelson challenges his readers that economics can be a "genuine form of religion" and that it should inform our understanding of "religious developments of our times." This new edition of Economics as Religion situates the influence of his work in the scholarly economic and theological conversations of today and reflects on the "state of the economics profession and the potential implications for theology and economics (and other social sciences)."

Why does America have a love affair with homeownership? For many, buying a home is no longer in their best interest and may actually harm their children's educational opportunities. This book argues that U.S. leaders need to reevaluate all housing policies and develop new ones that ensure that all Americans have greater access to affordable housing whether rented or owned. After describing homeownership's most common myths, the book shows why the financial circumstances America's financial underclass now face make it impossible for them to benefit from homeownership because they cannot afford to buy homes. The book then exposes the risks of home buying while brown or black by discussing U.S. policies that made it easier for whites to buy homes easily and cheaply, but harder and more costly for blacks and Latinos to do so. The book argues that remaining traces of racial discrimination and certain demographic features continue to make it harder for blacks and Latinos to receive homeownership's promised benefits."

This study documents the effects of the 2008 09 global financial crisis on poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). In doing so, it describes and decomposes the effects of the crisis on poverty using data from comparable household budget surveys for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay, and labor force surveys for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. The study also provides macro-micro modeling of crisis and no-crisis scenarios for Mexico and Brazil, as well as the big picture and program-specific details of the social protection policy responses for these countries and more. Among the findings are the following. First, the effects of the global financial crisis on those living in poverty were not trivial: more than 3 million people fell into or remained mired in poverty in 2009 as a result of the crisis. Of these, 2.5 million were Mexican. Second, the changes in poverty were driven by changes in labor incomes caused by a variable combination of changes in employment rates and real wages. Third, the macro-micro modeling revealed different adjustment mechanisms but similar final incidence results for Brazil and Mexico. The results were regressive overall, with the middle of the income distribution hit even a bit more than the poor. According to the descriptive results from the larger set of countries, changes in inequality accounted for a tenth to a third of changes in poverty. Fourth, countries were quite active in their social protection policy responses, largely taking advantage of programs built in precrisis years. Social transfers partially offset the lower labor earnings of the poor, although income protection for the unemployed was weak. Finally, overall the policy messages are that good policy helps attenuate the links between a global crisis and poverty in the LAC countries, and many of the important things need to be done ex ante such as dealing with the macro fundamentals and building social protection programs."

This book examines the array of financial crises, slumps, depressions and recessions that happened around the globe during the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. It covers events including World War I, hyperinflation and market crashes in the 1920s, the Great Depression of the 1930s, stagflation of the 1970s, the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, the post-socialist transitions in Central Eastern Europe and Russia in the 1990s, and the great financial crisis of 2008-9. In addition to providing wide geographic and historical coverage of episodes of crisis in North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia, the book clarifies basic concepts in the area of recession economics, analysis of high inflation, debt crises, political cycles and international political economy. An understanding of these concepts is needed to comprehend big recessions and slumps that often lead to both political change and the reassessment of prevailing economic paradigms.

The Battle for Europe brings into sharp focus the historical importance of the current Eurozone crisis. Thomas Fazi argues that European Union (EU) elites have seized on the financial crash to push through damaging neoliberal policies, undermining social cohesion and vital public services. Drawing on a wealth of sources, Fazi argues that the EU's austerity policies are not simply a case of political and ideological short-sightedness, but part of a long-term project by elites to remove the last remnants of the welfare state and complete the neoliberal project. As well as an urgent critique of the EU and monetary union as currently constituted, The Battle for Europe showcases a programme for progressive reform and outlines how citizens and workers of Europe can radically overhaul EU institutions.

Rapid improvements and constant advancements in information technology have inevitably lead to significant changes for businesses across the globe. As a result, some of these large shifts have unfortunately ended in major financial crises. Technology and Financial Crisis: Economical and Analytical Views investigates financial crises from unique points of view. Not only does this publication consider the broader economical implications that a financial crisis can have on one business or on a whole country, but it also thoroughly discusses the smaller areas which are affected or contribute to the downfall. This book is intended to be of use to the public sector, researchers, practitioners, and educators who are interested in the affects of a financial crises and possible ways to reduce such large scale problems in the future.

During the 2008 financial crisis, the possible changes in remittance-sending behavior and potential avenues to alleviate a probable decline in remittance flows became concerns. This book brings together a wide array of studies from around the world focusing on the recent trends in remittance flows. The authors have gathered a select group of researchers from academic, practitioner and policy making bodies. Thus the book can be seen as a conversation between the different stakeholders involved in or affected by remittance flows globally. The book is a first-of-its-kind attempt to analyze the effects of an ongoing crisis on remittance flows globally. Data analyzed by the book reveals three trends. First, The more diversified the destinations and the labour markets for migrants the more resilient are the remittances sent by migrants. Second, the lower the barriers to labor mobility, the stronger the link between remittances and economic cycles in that corridor. And third, as remittances proved to be relatively resilient in comparison to private capital flows, many remittance-dependent countries became even more dependent on remittance inflows for meeting external financing needs. There are several reasons for migration and remittances to be relatively resilient to the crisis. First, remittances are sent by the stock (cumulative flows) of migrants, not only by the recent arrivals (in fact, recent arrivals often do not remit as regularly as they must establish themselves in their new homes). Second, contrary to expectations, return migration did not take place as expected even as the financial crisis reduced employment opportunities in the US and Europe. Third, in addition to the persistence of migrant stocks that lent persistence to remittance flows, existing migrants often absorbed income shocks and continued to send money home. Fourth, if some migrants did return or had the intention to return, they tended to take their savings back to their country of origin. Finally, exchange rate movements during the crisis caused unexpected changes in remittance behavior: as local currencies of many remittance recipient countries depreciated sharply against the US dollar, they produced a sale effect on remittance behavior of migrants in the US and other destination countries."

The slow-down in economic growth and the rise in unemployment in the 1970s revived some of the uncertainties experienced by industrialized economies during the inter-war period. After more than a decade of stagnation, the period of sustained growth in the thirty years following the Second World War now seems increasingly to have been an exceptional phase in an overall development process still dominated by wide fluctuations in economic growth rates. Slow Growth and the Service Economy examines what it means to live in a period of economic recession and analyses social patterns in response to the slowing down of financial and economic growth.

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, why has the reform process been incremental although the conditions for more rapid and abrupt transformations appeared to exist? Is there anything specific about financial policy that prevents more radical reforms? Drawing from Comparative Politics and Historical Institutionalism in particular, as well as International Political Economy, this book answers these questions by examining the particular institutional frictions that characterise global financial governance and influence the activity of agents and veto players involved in the process of global regulatory change. The chapters in this volume collectively demonstrate that the process of change in financial rule-making as well as in the institutions governing finance does not fit with the punctuated model of policy change. The book also shows, however, that incremental changes can lead to fundamental shifts in the basic principles that inform global financial governance. 'In this timely, tightly argued, and empirically trenchant study, Moschella and Tsingou provide the strongest statement yet of why national and international post-crisis reform packages have fallen short of their most ambitious goals. Covering virtually every area of the international fi nancial system, the editors and their collaborators detail the origins and consequences of incremental policy changes, but note that, in the end, reforms may produce a subtle transformation in fi nancial market regulation. Great Expectations, Slow Transformations will long remain a major resource for scholars of post-crisis capitalism.' Dr. Orfeo Fioretos, Temple University, Philadelphia, USA 'The Global Financial Crisis was, by any measure, a great systemic shock that has so far led to a series of less-than-great systemic transformations - at least in the area of financial reform. Moschella and Tsingou explain why this is the case. By harnessing the insights of historical institutionalism to those of agent centered constructivism, they show us why great institutional transformations may take a lot longer, and may be significantly more contingent, than we generally think.' Mark Blyth, Professor of International Political Economy, Brown University, Providence, USA 'Many expected the financial collapse of 2007/8 to evoke signifi cant reform of financial systems around the globe. So far, at least, national governments have been slow to act. Moschella and Tsingou's fascinating volume, Great Expectations, Slow Transformations, helps us understand why. In this thoughtful volume the editors have pulled together a series of well reasoned and persuasive essays examining the politics and political economy of financial reform efforts around the globe. Eschewing the temptation to blame specific interests and their compliant politicians, these authors give us a set of nuanced stories that go beyond the politics of fi nancial reform helping us better understand why institutional change itself is so diffi cult. This book will be of great interest both for political economists interested in the politics of banking and financial regulation in the early 21st century, as well as for Historical Institutionalists interested in the politics of institutional change. Sven Steinmo, Professor and Chair in Political Economy and Public Policy, European University Institute, Florence, Italy

This book is available as open access through the Bloomsbury Open Access programme and is available on www.bloomsburycollections.com. This book examines the role of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other key players in the American mortgage market, in precipitating the current global financial crisis. From President Clinton's announcement of the 'National Home Ownership Strategy' in 1995 to its collapse in 2008, this book deftly explains the aims and consequences of extending mortgage lending to people who could not afford home ownership. Bankers, investment banks, rating agencies and derivatives have all been awarded their share of the blame, while politicians, regulators and government agencies have successfully avoided theirs. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been implicated, but the true story of their marriage made in hell has never been told.