This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR, one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, has been focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis, and it started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China's major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-six quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and thirteen annual reports have been published. This report, the twenty-sixth quarterly report, has been presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on February 26, 2019. This conference was jointly held at Beijing by the CMR and the Economic Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency

This volume contains bibliographic information for more than 500 serial publications in the areas of accounting, banking, finance, insurance, and investments. A full range of types of publications is represented, including scholarly journals, popular periodicals, newsletters, association publications, house organs, and loose-leaf services. Chapter one looks at the areas of accounting, auditing, and taxation. The second chapter examines banking-related publications. The third chapter, covering the general area of finance, is divided into four parts: general and public, which contains titles dealing with finance as a field of study and those that deal with the collection and allocation of public revenues; international finance; corporate finance; and personal finance. Chapter four covers titles available in insurance, including risk management and actuarial science. Chapter five contains investment-oriented titles, including those focusing on the stock exchanges, commodities markets, precious metals, real estate, currency, and more. Chapter six describes major indexing and abstracting services for these subjects. For the user's convenience, all indexes, abstracts, and databases cited in the annotations are included in the subject index.

This book introduces a new approach in the field of macroeconomic inventory studies: the use of multivariate statistics to evaluate long-term characteristics of inventory investments in developed countries. By analyzing a 44-year period series of annual inventory change in percentage of GDP in a set of OECD countries, disclosing their relationship to growth, industry structure and alternative uses of GDP (fixed capital investments, foreign trade and consumption), it fills a gap in the economic literature. It is generally accepted that inventories play an important role in all levels of the economy. However, while there is extensive literature on micro- (and even item-) level inventory problems, macroeconomic inventory studies are scarce. Both the long-term processes of inventory formation and their correlation with other macroeconomic factors provide interesting conclusions about economic changes and policies in our immediate past, and present important insights for the future.

Lowy avoids the easy answers, like blaming it on fraud and greed, and explains how something of this magnitude could occur under the noses of those who should have protected the taxpayer.

"Paul M. Horvitz, University of Houston"

Market forces, not scoundrels, destroyed the savings and loan business. So says Martin Lowy in what is truly an inside look at the savings and loan crisis. Drawing upon his experience as a practicing attorney, bank officer, and savings and loan director, Lowy provides an expert account of the problems that have overwhelmed the nation's savings institutions and their government regulators.

"High RollerS" is the first book on the S&L crisis that provides an analytical groundwork for technical and nontechnical readers--so that both can comprehend what happened. Lowy's clear, readable style allows him to quickly describe the origins of the problems in new market forces and new technologies, and how the problems grew out of control as a result of regulatory mistakes and congressional inaction. Even his discussions of real estate lending practices and accounting issues are, in the words of Professor Horvitz, both clear to the novice and instructive to the professional.

As decisively as the collapse of the Soviet Union signaled a most definite conclusion to that utopian undertaking gone mad, so has NAFTA ended an economic counterpart in Mexico. The United States and Canada are embarking on a grand experiment, incorporating Mexico into their very own economies, creating the largest trading bloc in the world consisting of more than 360 million consumers in an economy that will surpass seven trillion American dollars. For corporate America, an enormous opportunity lies in the integration of the Mexican nation into the economic and social fabric of North America. International business consultant and economist Louis Nevaer explains what these opportunities are and offers sage advice on how U.S. corporations can capitalize on them.

The implementation of NAFTA heralds the final conclusion of the Mexican Revolution, and Mexico is now embarked on a race against time to make up for lost decades. Ernesto Zedillo, who will deliver Mexico to the 21st century, confronts enormous challenges as the authoritarian hegemony that characterizes the political economy of the Mexican nation-state is dismantled. NAFTA constitutes a blueprint for the systematic surrender of the Mexican economy. There is, however, no blueprint for the transformation of Mexico into a democracy. Herein lies the greatest risks to corporate America, for there is always the danger of self-destruction, as witnessed in some of the republics of the former Soviet Union. The discussion presented in this book examines the present realities of the Mexican nation in the age of free trade. In Part I opportunities and risks for corporate America are analyzed, not only within an economic context, but also within a cultural and historical one, as well. Presented in Part II are the processes that have shaped Mexico over the centuries--Spanish rule, Native American civilizations, the trauma of conquest--which have given rise to the Mexican persona and character. With this understanding as background, the American reader gains a strategic advantage in understanding how the Mexican psyche works and which buttons to push. Finally, Part III presents a practical approach to conducting business in Mexico, which ranges from the legal requirements of opening a subsidiary, to a warning about the prevalence of corruption in Mexican society, as well as the existence of racism in Mexican culture.

.Economic reform measures introduced in Poland have been the most radical and ambitious in the newly free countries of Eastern Europe. In a short time that country has moved from a centrally planned economy to a free-market system. The ramifications and implications of these economic reforms are influencing economic thought and planning in other recently liberalized, formerly communist societies.

Raphael Shen asserts that measures taken to transform the Polish economy should be implemented over time rather than overnight, and should be moderate rather than radical. Throwing the centrally planned system out and replacing it with the free-market system instantly means that, in the short term at least, Poland will have no smoothly functioning system in place. The necessary economic infrastructure and basic institutions have had no time to develop. The contrived market system cannot function in a meaningful way. The current experience in Poland has already led to extensive disillusionment among Polish consumers and doubts among academicians. The Polish experience will be a valuable lesson in economics for students and decision makers. Shen's book valuable to students, teachers, and researchers in the areas of comparative economic systems, economic development, and economic history.

European Union and the Euro Revolution is a challenging study of the progression of the historic movement towards one European family. This volume is the first, most comprehensive exposition of the treatise of supranational macroeconomics. The Keynesian Revolution taught us macroeconomics in the context of a sovereign nation state. In the post-WWII decades, the concept of supra-national macroeconomics became the core theme of the European Union. Indeed, the traditional concept of a sovereign nation state economy begs a thorough reexamination.
One common economic unit with its well-specified micro and macroeconomic parameters has been mapped onto one common geographic unit, the continent of Europe, a group of sovereign European nation states voluntarily surrendering their erstwhile sovereignty. The official inauguration of one common money, the euro, managed by one common supra-national central bank, the European Central Bank (ECB), on January 1, 1999, has been an epochal event in the eventful history of the European Union (EU) from 1958 through the present. As of 1999, with the euro and the ECB firmly established, the debate became: one money to one Europe.
European Union and the Euro Revolution draws on the authors extensive field studies as a Visiting Scholar with three European national central banks, De Netherlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Banque de France in Paris, and Der Deutsche Bundesbank in Frankfurt and Japans Ministry of Finance in Tokyo.
His personal conferences with Dr. Otmar Issing, Chief Economist and a Member of the Executive Board of the ECB enriched his understanding of the related issues. His personal conferences with ranking economists and policy-makers ofBank of Japan and Japan Bank for International Development Tokyo, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) Beijing, Reserve Bank of Australia Canberra and Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington, the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, San Francisco, and Atlanta plus his invited presentations at universities and research institutions in USA, Japan, China, Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Viet Nam, Nepal, India, Australia, and New Zealand have added resourceful inputs to this volume. His invited presentation in 2002 at the special workshop sponsored by the United Nations International Training and Research (UNITAR) at the United Nations Headquarter in New York City, of course, brought meaningful insights.
*Contributions to Economic Analysis was established in 1952
*The series purpose is to stimulate the international exchange of scientific information
*The series includes books from all areas of macroeconomics and microeconomics

Against the background of the globalization of private finance, the predominance of states in global affairs cannot be taken for granted. New actors, such as commercial banks or securities houses, have entered the global arena and, therefore, need to be included in any informed analysis of social reality. The actions of these institutions have to be regarded as influential forces impacting world politics. The theory of transnational regimes is advocated as a new way of structuring the global system.

This book is devoted to the analysis of the three main financial crises that have marked this century: 2001 Argentina's defaulting on its external debt, the American subprime crisis in 2008, and the current European debt crisis in Europe. The book pursues three major objectives: firstly, to accurately portray these three financial crises; secondly, to analyze what went wrong with mainstream economic theory, which was unable to foresee these types of economic turmoil; and thirdly, to review macroeconomic theory, re-evaluating Keynes' original contribution to economic analysis and pointing out the need to rebuild macroeconomics with a view to studying economic illness rather than trying to prove the non-existence of economic problems.

James Tobin, 1981 Nobel laureate in economics, was the outstanding monetary economist among American Keynesian economists. This book, the first written about James Tobin, examines his leading role as a Keynesian macroeconomist and monetary economist, and considers the continuing relevance of his ideas.

The development of the welfare state has been accompanied by greater freedom being granted to workers in industrialized capitalist countries. The themes of this probing volume concern how governments, employers, trade unions, and workers have acted to promote economic growth and accountability with active industrial policies and forms of co-determination, worker self-management, and/or employee ownership. The book's essays address the key dimensions of economic, social, and political change in five industrial democracies: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Sweden. A major focus of the volume as a whole is on economic management and workplace reform in a variety of national settings. Managing Modern Capitalism is divided into three sections, covering strategies for industrial renewal, workplace democracy in practice and theory, and future perspectives. In the first section, each of the five countries are compared and contrasted in light of their attempts to stimulate economic growth and reduce unemployment under conditions of international interpendence of capital and markets. Country-by-country profiles highlight the second section, which also examines various forms of employee consultation, participation in managerial decisions, and ownership. The third section and conclusion evaluate prospective economic trends and workplace democracy in the capitalist nations. This book will be of interest to policymakers, scholars, and journalists, as well as to advanced students in political science, economics, history, and sociology.

This volume fills an important gap in the existing economic literature. While much has been written about Japan's pre-1990s institutions and economic performance, this text is unique in its forward-looking orientation - trying to understand not only the institutional and structural changes that have already reshaped Japan in the 1990s, but to identify the critical trends and institutional changes that will mould Japan's new economy over the next decade.

This book analyzes the effects of wives' employment on the economic status of families, using both descriptive and empirical research. The historical and socio-economic causes of change in the employment status of wives and husbands are detailed. The empirical studies respond to some basic questions about dual-earner families: How does having an employed wife influence family lifestyles? What effects do dual-earners have on the finances of their households and on the distribution of income? What policy changes are needed to recognize the economic importance of dual-earner families? In Working Wives and Dual-Earner Families, one-earner and dual-earner families are differentiated, with particular attention to the impact of wives' employment status (full-time or part-time) on household decision making. Among the most interesting research findings are: total family income or tax bracket and the cost of child care are among the critical determinants of dual-earner employment; married-couple families at the same level of income have very similar expenditure patterns regardless of whether the wife is employed; full-time working wives make the distribution of income less equal, but part-time working wives generate greater equality in the distribution of income; families with full-time working wives have higher income, but they do not save more or have greater financial assets than other families; families with part-time employed wives are similar to those with non-employed wives and differ from families with full-time employed wives. The authors conclude that the real incomes of dual-earner families will continue to grow, as one-earner real income remains the same or declines. Household planning and decision making will increasingly be predicated upon having two earners, which will be perceived as the norm. Dual-earner families, based on amenities, mobility, growing families, and demands for public goods, will drive private markets and public policy.

Macroeconomic models and assumptions have traditionally been evaluated using non-experimental "field" data. However, in many instances the field data necessary to evaluate such models and assumptions are not available. Recently, researchers have begun to explore ways of implementing micro-founded macroeconomic models in the controlled conditions of the experimental laboratory as an alternative means of gathering the data necessary to address the empirical relevance of macroeconomic models and assumptions as well as to understand questions of equilibrium selection or policy prescriptions. This volume is the first-ever collection of laboratory studies aimed at understanding macroeconomic phenomena. The chapters, by leading researchers in the field, explore consumption behavior, expectation formation, monetary economics and central bank policy in a variety of different macroeconomic models. Readers will come away with a better understanding of how to implement macroeconomic models in the laboratory and the valuable insights that laboratory research can bring to our understanding of macroeconomics.

The standing of industrialization has fallen in the list of social and economic objectives of developing countries in recent years. Turkey provides an ideal example of this beginning with a program adopted in 1980 under the auspices of the IMF and the World Bank. The macroeconomic and microeconomic issues concerning Turkish industrialization in global context with particular emphasis on the decade of the 1980s are examined. The rapid transformation in industrialization strategy from import substitution under heavy state direction to outward orientation has had a profound effect on industrialization of Turkey.

Tanzania is now the fourth poorest country in the world. Its economic development, since independence in 1961, has been characterized by a series of internal and external shocks that have tested the resilience of the economy, the stability of its institutions, and the tolerance and inventiveness of its people. This book presents information that will have profound implications for economic policy in Tanzania. Questioning earlier reports and conclusions, the authors reject official economic statistics as failing to give even a moderately accurate picture of economic developments. This study outlines the structure of the Tanzanian economy and considers the impact of previous policies and current stabilization and adjustment measures on the poorer segments of the Tanzanian population.

This book deals with the structural origins of economic and financial crises. It explains that both economic theories and policies need to be grounded on a monetary macroeconomic analysis of the working of domestic and international economies. The volume outlines reform proposals to make sure that banking activities respect the nature of money.

Making Fiscal Policy in Japan is written for those who want to understand the role and performance of fiscal policy as an integral component of macroeconomic policy, and the attendant effects on economic growth. Ishi traces and analyses the central features of postwar Japanese fiscal policy and considers the institutional framework and policy objectives which shaped the budget process. The overall conclusion is that the Japanese government has been generally passive in guiding the state's economic activities, using fiscal policy to support the private market economy rather than directly to influence the economy through deliberate expenditure and tax policies.

From the beginning of our nation's history, with the Puritan and Protestant work ethics, through the 1950s, thrift was considered an important virtue, both with regard to the moral fiber of the country and as a support for its continuing economic well-being. The idea that deferring immediate pleasures to accumulate wealth for increased future value was considered virtuous, not just by the citizens but by politicians and the government as well. In this fascinating history of thrift, David Tucker describes how, after the Eisenhower period, thrift became an outdated, outmoded concept, and how the abandonment of thrift is in large part responsible for our current economic position.

Tucker begins his study by tracing the thrift culture in which America was born, which continued its dominance for more than a century. The notion that frugality was the best means for promoting the general welfare remained unchanged until the late nineteenth century, when an angry protest against more thrifty Chinese immigrants led to a reversal in cultural attitudes. A new ideal of a higher standard of living--supported by spending, consumption, and debt-- undercut the old virtue of thrift. Throughout the twentieth century, advertising, consumer credit, and a self-indulgent psychology have eroded the practice of frugality. In addition to this history, Tucker explores the dangers of the thriftless society, comparing America's current position to the economic rise and decline of the United Kingdom. With a savings rate that has fallen from 15 percent to 4 percent, and a government that routinely appropriates more than 100 percent of tax revenues, Tucker sees a moral deficiency in Americans. Thrift is no obsolescent virtue, he observes, if the nation is concerned with preserving a standard of living. This unique history and commentary will be a useful supplement to courses in current affairs, American history, and economics, as well as a significant addition to college, university, and public libraries.

This book explores the role of national fiscal policies in a selected group of Euro-area countries under the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). In particular, the authors characterize the response of output to fiscal consolidations and expansions in the small Euro-area open economies affected by high public and private debt. It is shown that the macroeconomic outcome of fiscal shocks is strongly related to debt levels. The Euro-area countries included in the investigation are Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Portugal, over the sample period 1999-2016, i.e., the EMU period. The main econometric tools used in this research are structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models, including panel VAR models. The available literature relating to the subject is also fully reviewed. A further closely investigated topic is the potential spillover effects of German fiscal policies on the selected small Euro-area economies. Moreover, in the perspective of the evolution of the Euro Area towards a full Monetary and Fiscal Union, the authors study the effects of area-wide government spending shocks on aggregate output and other macroeconomic variables during the EMU period. The closing chapter of the book considers evidence on the consequences of austerity policies for European labour markets during recent years.

This book contributes to the debate on the decoupling of emerging economies from the advanced economies with a new, empirical investigation approach. Taking counterfactual experiments performed using a time-varying panel VAR model, the author argues that over the last thirty years, emerging economies have become less vulnerable to shocks spreading from advanced economies. This resilience to external shocks has changed in a non-progressive manner over time, with phases of greater resilience followed by others of lower resilience and vice versa. This research outlines its wave-like path and presents new results that contribute to the discussion.

This book explains why inflation remains subdued after recessions, based on three revolutionary concepts: defensive expectations, compensatory savings, and cumulative wage gap. When income falls, consumption falls, and savings rise, as people rebuild their past wealth. Households will not spend more until they fully recover what they lost. The revised Phillips Curve explains that current inflation depends on the cumulative difference between current income and past income. This new theory is tested and validated by data for US since 1960 to date and for 35 OECD countries from 1990 to date. A number of policy implications are derived from these results. The book calls for an optimal policy mix between monetary policy and fiscal policy; it also discusses the coronavirus crisis as an extreme case of defensive expectations.

This book utilizes an innovative approach combining qualitative and quantitative methods to investigate the correlations between monetary policy, economic growth, inflation and asset price volatility, explores the creation of financial risk prevention systems and reaches conclusions with both theoretical and practical value. The book offers an empirical analysis of the effectiveness of monetary policy, specifies the correlations between monetary policy, economic growth and inflation and provides a theoretical basis for and empirical demonstration of monetary policy implementation in China. Previous research in China has primarily focused on the correlation between monetary policy and a specific asset price, while this book comprehensively addresses the appropriateness of real estate, stock, bond and futures price regulation through monetary policies, lending it a high degree of practical significance. In order to arrive at a systemic risk prevention and regulation mechanism for China, the book uses the GARCH mean value model and MGARCH-BEKK model to create a pressure index and provide a three-level pre-warning system for currency crises, bank crises and asset bubble crises. The book systemically introduces the idea of macro-prudential regulation into the Chinese financial system by first clarifying the necessity of implementing macro-prudential regulation in China and then proving its effectiveness in mitigating pro-cyclicality and enhancing steady economic growth by constructing a mitigation model.