How can we effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ?wisdom of the crowd Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies in providing, for example, improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services.

The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza outbreaks to the spread of other infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like surveys, group deliberations, and expert opinion. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes.

This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should appeal to all those with an interest in economics, forecasting or public policy, and in particular those with an interest in the study of money, investment and risk.

This reissue, first published in 1982, is the first of two volumes on the causes and cure of Stagflation - the two-headed monster that combines mass unemployment with rapid inflation, which affected contemporary economies across the industrially developped world in the 1970s.

Professor Meade outlines the nature of the problem, contrasting the Great Slump of the 1930s with the Great Stagflation of the 1970s and comparing the Orthodox Keynesian and Monetarist approaches with the New Keynesian strategy. Various proposals for the reform of wage-fixing institutions are discussed, including the limitation of trade-union bargaining powers, an official incomes policy, labour management and ownership in business, and tax or subsidy measures to discourage inflationary rises in wages and prices.

The book will be essential reading for all concerned with both the theory and policy of contemporary macroeconomics, industrial relations, labour economics and labour law. It has been written so that the general argument in the main text is accessible to the general reader as well as of interest to the professional economist.

First published in 1983, this is the second of two volumes on the causes and cure of stagflation ? that combination of mass unemployment and rapid inflation that is currently afflicting the mixed economies of the industrially developed world. The authors deplore the unemployment due to the failure of governments to adopt Keynesian measures for the expansion of economic activity, but recognise that in present conditions such measures would lead to an unacceptable and explosive inflation of money wages and prices. They therefore advocate a dual strategy of financial policies for a steady expansion of total money incomes combined with individual wage rates set at levels to promote employment.

The book is of importance for all those concerned with macroeconomic theory and policy. The description of the meaning of a New Keynesian policy and of the arguments for it have been written in a way which should be intelligible to policy-makers and students, and not only to economists with technical training. Professional macroeconomists will be interested not only in these sections but also in the fully specified macroeconomic model used to analyse New Keynesian policies in economic terms and to carry out a counterfactual re-running of history. In addition, the unusually detailed exposition of the application of control techniques to a difficult multivariable control problem also makes the book of interest to control engineers who wish to acquaint themselves with recent generalisations of classical frequency response methods.

With the rapid growth of China and India and the resurgence of Southeast Asia post-1997 8, emerging Asia has once again become one of the most dynamic regions in the world. This dynamism has in turn been fuelled largely by a carefully calibrated embracement of economic openness to international trade, investments and capital flows. While much has been written about international trade, there has been somewhat less work on the issue of capital flows, macroeconomic management and foreign direct investment (FDI) to and from the region, a gap that this book attempts to fill.

The book is divided into two parts. The first part deals with selected issues pertaining to macroeconomic management in small and open economies, with particular focus on exchange rates. The second part of the book deals with the trends and determinants of FDI in emerging Asia, its importance as a source of finance, its impact on growth and development, and the nexus between FDI and foreign portfolio flows (FPI).

Overall, the chapters in this book tackle important policy issues of contemporary relevance, but are informed by analytical frameworks, data and empirics. While each of the topic areas chosen in individual chapters is intentionally narrow, the book as a whole covers a number of areas and countries/regions within Asia (i.e. East, Southeast and South Asia). While the chapters have been written in a manner that can stand up to academic scrutiny, they are also meant to be accessible to policy makers, researchers and others who might be interested in FDI and related issues in Asia.

This book represents the first of three volumes offering a complete reinterpretation and restructuring of Keynesian macroeconomics and a detailed investigation of the disequilibrium adjustment processes characterizing the financial, the goods and the labour markets and their interaction. It questions in a radical way the evolution of Keynesian macroeconomics after World War II and focuses on the limitations of the traditional Keynesian approach until it fell apart in the early 1970s, as well as the inadequacy of the new consensus in macroeconomics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism. Professors Chiarella, Flaschel and Semmler investigate basic methodological issues, the pitfalls of the Rational Expectations School, important feedback channels in the tradition of Tobin's work, and theories of the wage-price spiral and the evidences for them. The book uses primarily partial approaches, the integration of which will be the subject of subsequent volumes. With its focus on Keynesian propagation mechanisms, the research in this book provides a unique alternative to the black-box shock-absorber approaches that dominate modern macroeconomics. Reconstructing Keynesian Macroeconomics should be of interest to students and researchers who want to look at alternatives to the mainstream macrodynamics that emerged from the Monetarist critique of Keynesianism.

From the bestselling author of The Black Swan, a bold book that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility Why should we never listen to people who explain rather than do? Why do companies go bust? How is it that we have more slaves today than in Roman times? Why does imposing democracy on other countries never work? The answer: too many people running the world don't have skin in the game. In his inimitable, pugnacious style, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows that skin in the game applies to all aspects of our lives. It's about having something to lose and taking a risk. Citizens, lab experimenters, artisans, political activists and hedge fund traders all have skin in the game. Policy wonks, corporate executives, theoreticians, bankers and most journalists don't. As Taleb says, "The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that's necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster," and "Never trust anyone who doesn't have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them".

The European economy is emerging from its deepest recession since the 1930s. This volume, which brings together economic analysis from the European Commission services, explains how swift policy response avoided a financial meltdown; but turning the ongoing recovery into sustained growth requires action on five challenges: boosting potential output, enhancing labour market flexibility, preparing fiscal consolidation, facilitating intra-EU adjustment, and unwinding global imbalances. Europe also needs an improved co-ordinated crisis-management framework to help it respond to any similar situations that may arise in the future. Economic Crisis in Europe shows that the beginnings of such a crisis-management framework are emerging, building on existing institutions and legislation and complemented by new initiatives. Naturally, initial EU policy efforts, such as fiscal stimulus, focused on crisis control and mitigation. But first steps have also been taken to redesign financial regulation and supervision with crisis prevention in mind. The design of crisis resolution policies is now becoming a main task. While any premature withdrawal of policy stimulus should be avoided, exit strategies should be ready for implementation, embedded in a broader policy framework that also includes growth-enhancing structural reforms.

State and Local Public Finance provides a comprehensive and sophisticated analysis of state and local government public finance practices and issues, using the basic tools of economics. This fifth edition maintains its focus on key local services such as education, health care, and transportation and brings in new coverage of land use and housing, applications from behavioral economics, and more international comparisons. This textbook provides an examination and analysis of public finance practices and problems in a federal fiscal system, focusing on the fiscal behavior and policies of state and local governments. Modern economic theory is applied to examine the way key institutions are used to produce and finance services and to provide evaluation of alternative policies. This stalwart text will continue to be invaluable reading for those who study public finance, local government finance, urban economics, public policy, and public administration.

First published in 1977, this is an applied economics text, in which the basic theory of any introductory economics couurse is applied to a whole range of UK macro- and micro-economic policy issues. The book is designed specifically for first and second year university students, with the aim of demonstrating the relevance of theory to policy, how theory can be applied to policy problems and, in the process, to improve their understanding of the theory itself.

Originally published in1985, Jim Tomlinson charters the route of British macroeconomic policy in the post-war era. This book argues that the objectives of macroeconomic policy have not been constant; that the emphasis has shifted from one item to another over time; and that this uncertainty and inconsistency over objectives goes a long way to explaining why macroeconomics management has not been a startling success.

This important book analyses evolutionary approaches to economic policy. Its main purpose is to explore the policy implications of evolutionary economics, in particular of approaches inspired on the one hand by Schumpeter and revived by Nelson and Winter which deal with industrial evolution under constant institutions and, on the other hand, of approaches inspired by Hayek and North, which analyse the ways in which institutions themselves evolve. Hitherto evolutionary economists have paid little attention to policy issues, and the relatively few policy implications that they have produced are divergent. Whereas the Neo-Schumpeterian approach has often been used to support political interventions, the Hayekian viewpoint holds that economic policy detracts from economic performance. More systematic evolutionary analysis of economic policy is required if these one-sided findings are to be transcended. Furthermore, such analysis can be expected to develop a coherent theory of economic policy which will plug the gaps and rectify the errors (such as approval of socialist planning and Japanese industrial policies) of both neoclassical and alternative approaches to policy. Evolutionary economists and policy analysts will find this book of great interest, as will economists and students of economics who are interested in enlarging their views with excursions outside the standard curriculum.

The Routledge Handbook of South Asian Economics addresses the recent economic transformation in South Asia. Leading experts in the field look at the major economic achievements and challenges for the region and examine why economic development across the South Asia region has diverged so significantly since the early 1990s. Providing a cutting-edge review of the economies of South Asia, the Handbook analyzes key growth areas as well as key structural weaknesses and policy challenges facing these economies. Furthermore, it anticipates trends and suggests corrective measures for the South Asian economic region. Sections focus on issues of human development, such as inequality, poverty and quality of schooling, and monetary and fiscal issues, particularly in light of the ongoing global financial crisis. Further sections discuss issues relating to employment and infrastructure, and on the experience of the region with international trade and financial flows, and environmental challenges. Written by renowned and respected experts on South Asian economics, this Handbook will be an invaluable reference work for students and academics as well as policy makers interested in South Asian Studies, Economics and Development Studies.

Originally published in 1994, this book, divided into three parts, examines macroeconomic models in a non-technical way. Part I discusses the importance of macroeconomic modelling; Part II examines the rise and fall of Keynesian income-expenditure models; and part III evaluates the evidence and presents a critique of how we can learn from these models now and in the future.

First published in 1991, this book uses a property rights perspective to analyse why there is such widespread resistance to change in the Soviet Economic System. Many within the ruling stratum benefit considerably from their positions, particularly in terms of access to goods and services. In an original conclusion Jan Winiecki argues that a cost-effective way of removing the resistance of the parasitic ruling stratum would be a system of compensatory payments.

This book argues that in many jurisdictions free market advocates have resorted to public sector downsizing and privatization as a means of alleviating problems of unemployment and slow economic growth and that, as a consequence, the strategy of reducing public deficits, balancing budgets and achieving surpluses has become widely accepted as the only road to prosperity. The Economics of Public Spending shows in clear and simple terms that the strategy of public sector downsizing is based on a misleading conception of public finance. The book dispels several myths about public deficits and debts, offering alternative approaches to fiscal and monetary policies. The contributors argue convincingly and authoritatively that the public sector is crucial for economic growth, that budget deficits are required for improving the performance of the private sector and that there is a real need for an economic agenda based on public deficits and low stable real interest rates in order to achieve full employment with high wages, more generous social programmes and sustainable inflation. This fascinating and challenging book will be of great interest to policymakers in government, academic researchers as well as public finance experts and economists.

This set reprints three classic volumes on Jeremy Bentham's economic writings. Before these volumes were published a great deal of Jeremy Bentham's economic work was completely unknown. All three volumes contain historical introductions and collections of passages from Bentham's non-economic writings which illustrate his views on economics as a science and the problems of methodology.
First published by George Allen & Unwin in the 1950s.

First published in 1913, this Routledge Revivals title reissues J. A. Hobson's seminal analysis of the causal link between the rise in gold prices and the increase in wages and consumer buying power in the early years of the Twentieth Century. Contrary to the assertions of some notable contemporary economists and businessmen, Hobson contended that the relationship between gold prices and wages (and the resulting social unrest across much of Europe) was in fact much more complex than it initially appeared and that there were significantly more important factors in the rise of contemporary wealth, such as the rapid enlargement of state enterprise and joint stock companies; a wide extension of banking and general financial apparatus; and the opening of profitable fields of investment for the development of underdeveloped countries, which helped raise the rate of interest and profits.

The book aims to give non-economists a detailed understanding of how macroeconomic policy works in modern economies, and the issues it faces. The world has recently been through a huge economic crisis and thinking people everywhere have reason to wonder whether something is not seriously wrong with the policy regimes underlying these dramatic events in the major economies, and whether changes should be made. The author reviews the history of the successive regimes tried and found wanting in the second half of the last century and proposes a set of reforms designed to convert the flawed neo-liberal consensus of the 1990s into a durable regime for the present century.

'This is an extremely important and long-awaited book. The authors provide a cogent guide to all that is wrong with the theory and empirical applications of the discredited notion of an aggregate production function. Their critique has devastating implications for orthodox macroeconomics.' - Anwar Shaikh, New School for Social Research, US 'This is a very important book. Proofs that aggregate production functions do not exist have been around for more than 50 years. This casts doubt not only on macroeconomic theory but also on empirical work and policy. Yet, this has not deterred macro-economists. The authors show in great detail that the apparent 'fit' of such functions to value-based data is a tautology and not a proof that such aggregates exist. One hopes that the profession will finally take note.' - Franklin M. Fisher, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, US 'Felipe and McCombie have gathered all of the compelling arguments denying the existence of aggregate production functions and showing that econometric estimates based on these fail to measure what they purport to quantify: they are artefacts. Their critique, which ought to be read by any economist doing empirical work, is destructive of nearly all that is important to mainstream economics: NAIRU and potential output measures, measures of wage elasticities, of output elasticities and of total factor productivity growth.' - Marc Lavoie, University of Ottawa, Canada This authoritative and stimulating book represents a fundamental critique of the aggregate production function, a concept widely used in macroeconomics. The authors explain why, despite the serious aggregation problems that surround it, aggregate production functions often give plausible statistical results. This is due to the use of constant-price value data, rather than the theoretically correct physical data, together with an underlying accounting identity that relates the data definitionally. It is in this sense that the aggregate production function is 'not even wrong': it is not a behavioral relationship capable of being statistically refuted. The book examines the history of the production function and shows how certain seminal works on neoclassical growth theory, labor demand functions and estimates of the mark-up, among others, suffer from this fundamental problem. The book represents a fundamental critique of the aggregate production function and will be of interest to all macroeconomists. Contents: Prologue: 'Not Even Wrong' Introduction 1. Some Problems with the Aggregate Production Function 2. The Aggregate Production Function: Behavioural Relationship or Accounting Identity? 3. Simulation Studies, the Aggregate Production Function and the Accounting Identity 4. 'Are There Laws of Production?' The Work of Cobb and Douglas and its Early Reception 5. Solow's Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function', and the Accounting Identity 6. What does Total Factor Productivity Actually Measure? Further Observations on the Solow Model 7. Why Are Some Countries Richer than Others? A Sceptical View of Mankiw-Romer-Weil's Test of the Neoclassical Growth Model 8. Some Problems with the Neoclassical Dual-Sector Growth Model 9. Is Capital Special? The Role of the Growth of Capital and its Externality Effect in Economic Growth 10. Problems Posed by the Accounting Identity for the Estimation of the Degree of Market Power and the Mark-up 11. Are Estimates of Labour Demand Functions Mere Statistical Artefacts? 12. Why Have the Criticisms of the Aggregate Production Function Generally Been Ignored? On Further Misunderstandings and Misinterpretations of the Implications of the Accounting Identity References Index

Modern Principles means modern content and modern delivery and Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok deliver with a knack for revealing the 'invisible hand' of economics at work and a unique combination of vivid writing, up-to-date relevant examples and unparalleled online resources, perfect for your principles of economics course. Modern Principles of Macroeconomics places an emphasis on the power of incentives which underscores how economics helps us understand why we do what we do (in other words, the decisions we make in the face of incentives in the real world). These are brought to life via examples including a discussion of housing prices and the elasticity of supply, the declining labor force participation rate of young men, the platform economics of free goods like Facebook and Twitter, monetary policy in a pandemic and the politics and economics of trade in the Trump era. Modern Principles of Macroeconomics is supported by Achieve, our integrated, online learning system which allows you to engage every student with powerful multimedia resources, an integrated e-Book, robust homework, and a wealth of interactives, creating an extraordinary new learning resource for students. Key features include: 170+ Marginal Revolution University videos have been deeply integrated into the text and pedagogy, providing valuable tools for both instructors and students Animated pre-lecture tutorials reinforce in-class learning Access to an eBook for easy reading and searching LearningCurve adaptive quizzing offers practice questions and feedback - Step-by-Step graphs and Discovering data activities help students develop their economic thinking

This book provides the first comprehensive and accessible account of the evolution of exchange rate regimes in the twentieth century. It presents a chronological, non-technical history and in doing so manages to link the past with the present to shed new light on the merits of different exchange rate systems.Since the golden age before the First World War, the international monetary system has experienced several changes in exchange rate regimes, alternating between fixed and floating rate systems interspersed with managed or dirty floats. The authors examine and assess the evolution of exchange rate regimes since the First World War to the present day. They discuss the forces that have brought about change in order to determine how different regimes affected the economic environment. They consider the merits or otherwise of the respective regimes and assess the evidence and arguments for and against fixed and floating exchange rate systems. Exchange Rate Regimes in the Twentieth Century provides a coherent and manageable analysis of a complex subject. It will prove invaluable to both undergraduates and postgraduates studying economic history, international economics and international studies.

This text is part of a series of five volumes which offers a comprehensive overview of the regulation approach to capitalism and its crisis-tendencies. Edited by a major British contributor to the approach, the volumes contain not only key theoretical and empirical works from French regulationists but also representative work from other regulation schools and scholars. They also feature major critiques of the approach. Topics covered throughout the series include regulationist approaches to the labour process, accumulation regimes (especially Fordism and post-Fordism), modes of social regulation, forms of state intervention, and the crisis tendencies of capitalism. Contributions cover different periods and different countries as well as different sectors and the changing global economy as a whole. The set includes both pioneer works and theoretical innovations and also explores the links between regulationism and other approaches, such as institutionalism, radical geography, critical discourse analysis, and feminism. The contributors include M. Aglietta, R. Boyer, R. Brenner, J. Jenson and L. McDowell.

In this volume, Louis-Philippe Rochon and Hassan Bougrine bring together key post-Keynesian voices in an effort to push the boundaries of our understanding of banks, central banking, monetary policy and endogenous money. Issues such as interest rates, income distribution, stagnation and crises - both theoretical and empirical - are woven together and analysed by the many contributors to shed new light on them. The result is an alternative analysis of contemporary monetary economies, and the policies that are so needed to address the problems of today. Students and professors of economics, policymakers interested in alternative policies, academics and scholars in all fields will benefit from the explorations therein, and would also appreciate the companion publication, Economic Growth and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies in Post-Keynesian Economics, also published by Edward Elgar Publishing. Contributors include: R. Bellofiore, H. Bougrine, J. Chen, L. Cordonnier, E. Correa, S. Dow, T. Ferguson, G. Fontana, C. Gnos, R. Guttmann, P.D. Jorgensen, P. Kriesler, E. Le Heron, J. Leclaire, V. Monvoisin, A. Parguez, E. Perez Caldentey, P. Petit, J.-F. Ponsot, L.-P. Rochon, S. Rossi, S. Thabet, J. Toporowski, M. Vernengo

This book focuses on the core issues in money and banking. By using simple applications for anyone that understands basic economics, the lessons in the book provide any student or reader with a background in how financial markets work, how banks as businesses function, how central banks make decisions, and how monetary policy affects the global economy.

Money and Banking is split into sections based on subject matter, specifically definitions and introductions, financial markets, microeconomic issues, macroeconomy policy, and international finance. It also covers:

- derivative and currency markets

- the microeconomics of banking

- trade and currency movements

- asymmetric information and derivative markets

- the future of financial markets and their participants

By providing a mix of microeconomic and macroeconomic applications, focusing on both international examples and open economy macroeconomics, this book reduces the minutiae seen in competing books. Each chapter provides summaries of what should be learned along the way and why the chapter's topic is important, regardless of current events. For undergraduate business, economics or social science students otherwise, this book is a concise source of information on money, banking and financial markets.