Forecasting exchange rates is a variable that preoccupies economists, businesses and governments, being more critical to more people than any other variable. In Exchange Rate Forecasting the author sets out to provide a concise survey of the techniques of forecasting - bringing together the various forecasting methods and applying them to the exchange rate in a highly accessible and readable manner. Highly practical in approach, the book provides an understanding of the techniques of forecasting with an emphasis on its applications and use in business decision-making, such as hedging, speculation, investment, financing and capital budgeting. In addition, the author also considers recent developments in the field, notably neural networks and chaos, again, with easy-to-understand explanations of these "rocket science" areas. The practical approach to forecasting is also reflected in the number of examples that pepper the text, whilst descriptions of some of the software packages that are used in practice to generate forecasts are also provided.

In this book, the author describes that the relationship based shareholding was the hidden key factor to explain Japan's miraculous economic success after WWII. The stock market which valued the low profitability Japanese companies highly enabled them to provide 'better and cheaper' manufactured goods in the export markets, leading resource poor Japan to a leading exporter and economic and financial superpower. The book also casts critical eyes to the weakness of the traditional Japanese financial system as a catch-up model, in comparison with the open US system.

The rising unhappiness that leaders didn't see That's because while leaders pay close attention to measures like GDP or unemployment, almost none of them track their citizens' wellbeing. The implications of this blind spot are significant and far-reaching-leaders missed the citizen unhappiness that triggered events ranging from the Arab uprisings to Brexit to the election of Donald Trump. What are they going to miss next? Grounded in Gallup's global research, Blind Spot makes the urgent case that leaders should measure and quantify wellbeing and happiness-how citizens' lives are going-and shows them how. It also discusses the five key elements of a great life and where the world needs to improve in each of them to better the lives of people everywhere.

Challenges in Economic and Financial Policy Formulation provides an introductory, yet comprehensive, treatment of macroeconomic policies and their implementation in an Islamic-designed economic system.

Most people have some idea what Greeks and Romans coins looked like, but few know how complex Greek and Roman monetary systems eventually became. The contributors to this volume are numismatists, ancient historians, and economists intent on investigating how these systems worked and how they both did and did not resemble a modern monetary system. Why did people first start using coins? How did Greeks and Romans make payments, large or small? What does money mean in Greek tragedy? Was the Roman Empire an integrated economic system? This volume can serve as an introduction to such questions, but it also offers the specialist the results of original research.

Understanding the process of shaping investor expectations is essential to describe and predict changes in the value of assets on the financial markets, especially stock prices on the capital markets and thus the value of companies listed on them. The main objective of this book is to include the investor expectations in the concept of enterprise value management and measurement of shareholders value creation. It seems that the role of expectations, as a determinant of investment decisions on the capital market, requires a deep insight and highlight the importance of managing the expectations for creating value for shareholders, in particular in the context of the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Creating value for shareholders is to overcome investor expectations for the rate of return on their initial investment. That means that managers must understand how investors build their expectations. According to studies conducted by T. Copeland and A. Dolgoff'a there is a strong and statistically significant relation between the shareholders returns and the two types of variables: changes in expectations for the future earnings and changes in the level of interference of provided information. Almost 50% of the variance of return rates can be explained by these two variables. Studies have also shown that changes in expectations for long-term profits have a significant and immediate impact on the share price. Readers of this book will be able to understand the process of investor expectation formulation, will know how to create value in response to investor expectations and how to consciously shape investor expectations in order to increase company value.

This book analyzes one of the most important and difficult macroeconomic questions at the beginning of the 21st century: how to overcome the growing threat to economic progress and political stability posed by negative aspects of globalization. Economic problems are becoming increasingly international, demanding action at the supranational level, yet the only effective institutional framework for dealing with them remains national. The essays make a valuable and timely contribution to a highly topical debate by integrating micro and macroeconomic analysis, covering a wide range of specific institutional and policy issues drawn from the experience of many countries - all from the perspective of an academic economist with an unusually intimate knowledge of decisionmaking at the highest level.

Growth Theory in Historical Perspective is a collection of thirteen carefully selected essays by Theo van de Klundert which demonstrate the development of growth theory over the past forty years. The sequence of chapters reveals the shifts in focus which have occurred since the first formal growth models of the 1940s and 1950s. He illustrates how the Keynesian paradigm was replaced by neo-classical models, which in turn have been superseded by theories of endogenous technical progress, the focus of growth theory in the 1990s. The author explains how the theory of economic growth is strongly shaped by ideas developed in the past. To this extent the book provides a comprehensive overview of the fundamentals of growth theory and develops important modern themes such as firm-specific research and development and the relationship between growth and international trade. Moreover, several of the chapters explore themes which, in the author's view, have been unfairly neglected in recent writings on the theory of growth. These include the role of demand factors, vintage models and issues of distribution, which he believes can still contribute to the current thinking on growth theory. By balancing insights from old and new theories of economic growth, this comprehensive book should prove fascinating reading for students, researchers and scholars of growth theory.

The idea that each country should have one currency is so deeply rooted in people's minds that the possibility of multiple and concurrent currencies seems unthinkable. Monetary systems contribute to problems of high unemployment and social distress during financial and economic crisis, so reforms to increase the responsiveness and flexibility of the monetary system can be part of the solution. This book discusses 'monetary plurality', which is the circulation of several currencies at the same time and space. It addresses how multiple currency circuits work together and transform socio-economic systems, particularly by supporting economies at the local level of regions and cities. The book shows that monetary plurality has been ubiquitous throughout history and persists at present because the existence of several currency circuits facilitates small-scale production and trade in a way that no single currency can accomplish on its own. Monetary plurality can improve resilience, access to livelihoods and economic sustainability. At the same time, it introduces new risks in terms of economic governance, so it needs to be properly understood. The book analyses experiences of monetary plurality in Europe, Japan, and North and South America, written by researchers from East and West and from the global North and South. Replete with case studies, this book will prove a valuable addition to any student or practitioner's bookshelf.

How did Europe get to monetary union in 1999 and how will EMU work out? Are the member countries starting in good shape and is the European Central Bank going to be a success? Should the UK enter EMU too, and if so when and how? This book provides a stocktaking of the process of European monetary integration as of early 1999 - at the start of European Monetary Union and twenty years after the creation of the European Monetary System. Based upon the first academic conference on the subject since the start of EMU by the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group and bringing together leading academics, researchers and policy-makers - including members of the European Central Bank - the book assesses recent experiences and evaluates likely future developments.

The recent dramatic wave of terrorist attacks has further focussed worldwide attention on the money laundering phenomena. The objective of this book is to offer the first systematic analysis of the economics of money laundering and its connection with terrorism finance. The authors first present the general principles of money laundering. They go on to illustrate an institutional and empirical framework that is useful in evaluating the causes and effects of money laundering phenomena in the banking and financial markets. They also analyse the design of the national and international policies aimed at combating them. The book focuses on several crucial issues and offers an analysis of each, including: * modelling the behaviour and process of making dirty money appear clean, hiding the originally criminal or illegal source of the economic activity * demonstrating how the financing of terrorism resembles money laundering in some respects and differs from it in others * explaining how the banking and financial industry can play a pivotal role for the development of the criminal sector as a preferential vehicle for money laundering * showing how schemes of international economics and of tax competition can be applied to black finance issues, claiming that competition for criminal money can lead to a race to the bottom * building up indicators of money laundering attractiveness among developed and emerging countries, with a particular attention on the role of the Offshore centres * dealing with anti-money laundering and counter terrorism finance (AML-CTF) enforcement problems, with a focus on Europe and the USA. Black Finance will be a valuable and accessible tool for scholars and academics, principally in economics, though also in politics and law, as well as for regulators and supervisory institutions. All royalties from this book to go to The Collegiate Foundation for Life

Europe's notoriously high level of unemployment is one of the big puzzles of empirical macroeconomics. In recent years the unemployment rate has fallen in The Netherlands, but the overall level in OECD Europe remains high. An investigation into why Dutch economic policy has been relatively effective could be useful for the unemployment debate in Europe. This book contributes to this investigation with its empirical analysis covering three important topics.

The first part of the book investigates whether (macro) economic policies could be effective in reducing unemployment in the short run. This depends on the cause of unemployment: is it due to lack of demand for goods, or is it due to a shortage of capacity. Another question is whether macroeconomic policies can be directed to one side of the market.

The high rate of unemployment among low-skilled workers is the topic of the second part of this book. How important is the impact of wage inflexibility at the lower tail of the income distribution due to institutional factors? To what extent is it caused by skill-biased technological change? A central issue is, again, how economic policy could contribute to reducing unemployment among low-skilled workers?

The persistence of unemployment is investigated in the third part. Since the early eighties, Dutch policymakers have employed wage moderation as a remedy for unemployment in The Netherlands. Substantial cutbacks were made in the social security programme. This had a moderating effect on wages, which is thought to have contributed to employment growth. However, unemployment remained rather high up to 1997. Why didn't unemployment fall morequickly?

To answer these questions, economists have developed different structural macroeconometric models. The Netherlands has a rich tradition in using macroeconomic models for policy analysis. This tradition originates in the work of Jan Tinbergen, Nobel laureate in economics, and the first director of CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. This book, which builds on CPB's broad experience with macroeconomic modelling, makes an important contribution to this fine Dutch tradition.

When General Motors and Chrysler declared bankruptcy in 2009 and immediately targeted thousands of dealerships for closure, tens of thousands of jobs and billions of dollars were on the line. Staring down two of the largest manufacturers in the world - as well as President Obama's Automotive Task Force - a determined triumvirate of car dealers banded together and went to Washington, D.C. to make their voices heard. Alan and Alison Spitzer's fast-paced memoir takes readers behind the scenes as "citizen's lobbyists" traverse throughout all of the major corridors of power in the nation's capital to make their case and bring justice to thousands of small business across the country.

Hayek Book Prize Finalist An Economist Best Book of the Year A Foreign Affairs Best Book of the Year A Financial Times Summer Reading Favorite "Sweeping, authoritative and-for the times-strikingly upbeat...The overall argument is compelling and...it carries a trace of Schumpeterian subversion." -The Economist "[An] important book...Lucid, empirically grounded, wide-ranging, and well-argued." -Martin Wolf, Financial Times "Offers...much needed insight into the sources of economic growth and the kinds of policies that will promote it...All in Washington would do well to read this volume carefully." -Milton Ezrati, Forbes Inequality is on the rise, growth stagnant, the environment in crisis. Covid seems to have exposed every crack in the system. We hear calls for radical change, but the answer is not to junk our economic system but to create a better form of capitalism. An ambitious reappraisal of the foundations of economic success that shows a fair and prosperous future is ours to make, The Power of Creative Destruction draws on cutting-edge theory and hard evidence to examine today's most fundamental economic questions: what powers growth, competition, globalization, and middle-income traps; the roots of inequality and climate change; the impact of technology; and how to recover from economic shocks. We owe our modern standard of living to innovations enabled by free-market capitalism, it argues, but we also need state intervention-with checks and balances-to foster economic creativity, manage social disruption, and ensure that yesterday's superstar innovators don't pull the ladder up after them.

The volume focuses on the demand side phenomena of the soaring economic growth of the past few centuries. Growth theory has basically ignored the massive changes that occur here: the huge increase in the variety of products and services and the growing specialization in consumption behavior. The papers in the present volume argue, in contrast, that precisely these changes are crucial for understanding why ever more goods and services can be sold and, thus, economic growth can continue. The papers explore the historical and empirical developments in consumption and offer first theoretical orientations on this important, though neglected, topic.

The collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s resulted in a transition to fluctuating rather than fixed currency system. This brought sterling into the turmoil of the world currency markets, and by the end of the 1970s, sterling had quietly ended its role as an international currency. Sterling-dollar diplomacy collapsed, bringing to an end what had hitherto been considered Britain's prime relationship. Britain and European Monetary Cooperation, 1964-1979 provides a unique perspective on these events, shedding light on the complexities of the historical context of British monetary diplomacy and exploring the country's attempt at a European approach to sterling in the 1960s and '70s. The book describes the political and economic approach Britain took at the turn of the 1970s, and explains how the country became restricted by the burden of the sterling balances. In this book, the author illustrates how these developments offered opportunity for both cooperation and conflict in the light of monetary diplomacy. He demonstrates how Britain's struggle to achieve exchange rate stability, twinned with controversy over European Economic Community membership, finally prompted serious reconsideration of economic policy-making. This book challenges the commonly-held perception of the decline of sterling, and explains that, although Britain's attempt at a European approach failed, the decline of the currency was more complicated than a 'managed decline'.

This book is about exchange rate regime choice. The role played by the exchange rate in the economy is demonstrated, then the pros and cons of fixed and flexible rates are discussed. The classification of exchange rate regimes is examined from theoretical, practical and historical perspectives. Macroeconomic performance under various exchange rate regimes is assessed, followed by a survey of models of exchange rate regime choice. Some factual case studies are presented and related to the theoretical foundations, including the choice of exchange rate regime in the post-conflict case of Iraq.

Input-Output Analysis contains new contributions to inter-industry economics by a set of internationally respected authors. The first part sketches the current state-of-the-art and explores the frontiers for traditional topics in input-output analysis such as inter-industry linkages, feedback effects, and the composition of economic changes. The second part crosses the borders of traditional input-output analysis, covering issues that change the visualization of economic structures, the application of generalized cost functions, and the adoption of alternative modeling frameworks.

While consumers are recognized as valuing market goods and services for the activities they can construct from them in the frameworks of several disciplines, consequences of the characteristics of goods and services they use in these activities have not been well studied. In this book, knowledge-yielding and conventional goods and services are contrasted as factors in the construction of activities that consumers engage in when they are not in the workplace. Consumers are seen as deciding on non-work activities and the inputs to these activities according to their objectives, and the values and accumulated skills they hold. It is suggested that knowledge content in these activities can be efficient for consumer objectives and also have important externalities through its effect on productivity at work and economic growth. The exposition seeks to elaborate these points and contribute to multi-disciplinary dialogue on consumption. Introduction: Consuming Knowledge Dimensioning Consumption: The Use of Knowledge in Non-Work Activities The Construct of the Valuing of Knowledge and Personal Consumption Expenditure in the U.S. National Accounts 1929-1989 The Interaction of Non-Work and Work Activities: Cross-Domain Transfers of Skill and Affect Integrating Non-Work Activities into Frameworks of Economic Growth Directions for the Study of Knowledge Use in Non-Work Activities

This landmark study of economic history since World War II systematically explores why postwar trade and payments have evolved as they have, the prospects for their future evolution, and the range of policy adjustments likely to be required. Through a rigorous examination and analysis of historical records, the author makes two significant and unique contributions to the scholarship on the subject. First, he reveals the existence of distinct cycles in world trade and payments, beginning in 1959. While scholars have recognized postwar business cycles, none have identified--until now--trade and payments cycles which seem to run parallel. Second, Cohen utilizes newly researched data to explore the much-heralded J-curve and its relevance in relating exchange rates to trade balances, and he identifies several important factors which have slowed the maturation of the J-curve effect on U.S. balances.

The study is divided into four parts and begins by looking at the forces that have shaped the postwar trade and payments order. Cohen then turns to an investigation of the period of advance in the trade and payments order from 1945-1967, describing three distinct stages that reflect the emergence, the establishment, and the peak of this period. Section three begins with an analysis of the structure and causes of the four postwar trade and payments cycles and includes an examination of the differences among them. Subsequent chapters address the different cycles themselves, reviewing the history of each and evaluating the growing challenges to the postwar trade and payments order. In the concluding section, Cohen explores why the J-curve in the U.S. has been so weak during the current cycle and assesses the likely consequences of the failure of existing policies to reduce external imbalances. Finally, the author offers a set of recommendations to reduce such imbalances through a new Cycle of Adjustment. Students of economic history, policy makers, and investors will find in Cohen's work significant new insights into economic processes and the probable future economic terrain.

Quantum Macroeconomics presents a new paradigm in macroeconomic analysis initiated by Bernard Schmitt. It explains the historical origin, the analytical contents, and the actual relevance of this new paradigm, with respect to current major economic issues at national and international level. These issues concern both advanced and emerging market economies, referring to inflation, unemployment, financial instability, and economic crises. In the first part of this volume, leading scholars explain the historical origin and analytical content of quantum macroeconomics. The second part explores its relevance with respect to the current major economic issues such as the sovereign debt crisis and European monetary union. The volume also features two previously unpublished papers by Bernard Schmitt. The main findings of this book concern the need to go beyond agents' behaviour to understand the structural origin of a variety of macroeconomic problems, notably, inflation, unemployment, financial instability, and economic crises. The originality that pervades all contributions is plain, when one considers the lack of any structural explanation of national and international economic disorders in the literature within the mainstream approach to economics. This edited volume is of great interest to those who study macroeconomics, monetary economics and money and banking.

Since the first edition of Foreign Exchange Options in 1993, trading in foreign exchange options has undergone rapid expansion and now accounts for a daily turnover of some $100 billion world-wide. This revised and expanded second edition takes into account recent changes in both market practice and regulatory requirements and contains many new explanatory diagrams and practical examples.
As with the first edition, the emphasis is on practicality, taking the reader through the basics, clarifying jargon when and where appropriate. This book will be invaluable for accountants, auditors, experienced practitioners and those entering the world of currency options for the first time.
The benefits of using options to hedge foreign exchange riskDetailed examination of both the OTC market and the main exchange listingSpecific coverage of pricing, trading risk and market practice

lE. King Michael Kalecki (1899-1970) was one of the most important, and also one of the most underrated, economists of the twentieth century. In the 1930s he made a series of fundamental contributions to macroeconomic theory which anticipated, complemented and in some ways surpassed those of Keynes. Almost entirely self-educated in economics, and influenced rul much by Marxism as by mainstream theory, Kalecki very largely escaped the fatal embrace of pre-Keynesian orthodoxy, which blunted the thrust of the General Theory. Many Post Keynesians, in particular, have found in his work the elements of a convincing alternative to what Joan Robinson -Kalecki's greatest advocate in the English-speaking world - was scathingly to describe as 'bastard Keynesianism' . But Kalecki was never interested in theory for its own sake. He approached economics from a practical perspective, wrote extensively on applied and policy questions, and in the [mal decades of his life turned his attention increasingly to problems of economic development and the management of state socialist economies.

Uncertain Decisions: Bridging Theory and Experiments presents advanced directions of thinking on decision theory - in particular the more recent contributions on non-expected utility theory, fuzzy decision theory and case-based theory. This work also provides theoretical insights on measures of risk aversion and on new problems for general equilibrium analysis. It analyzes how the thinking that underlies the theories described above spills over into real decisions, and how the thinking that underlies these real decisions can explain the discrepancies between theoretical approaches and actual behavior. This work elaborates on how the most recent laboratory experiments have become an important source both for evaluating the leading theory of choice and decision, and for contributing to the formation of new models regarding the subject.

The new classical revolution seems to have transformed macroeconomics into the theory of economic fluctuations. It is, in a sense, a return to the origins of macroeconomics as a discipline as fashioned by Hayek, Keynes and Lindahl. But the scope has shifted in the intervening five decades and more. It is this new scope - and the new tools that force its expansion - that are surveyed and analysed in this volume. Foundations of deterministic and random fluctuations, equilibrium and non-equilibrium macroeconomics of cycles; economic historical and political bases of crises; and the theoretical and descriptive statistics of time series analysis - all these provide nettings for the study of business cycles.