Europe's notoriously high level of unemployment is one of the big
puzzles of empirical macroeconomics. In recent years the
unemployment rate has fallen in The Netherlands, but the overall
level in OECD Europe remains high. An investigation into why Dutch
economic policy has been relatively effective could be useful for
the unemployment debate in Europe. This book contributes to this
investigation with its empirical analysis covering three important
topics.
The first part of the book investigates whether (macro) economic
policies could be effective in reducing unemployment in the short
run. This depends on the cause of unemployment: is it due to lack
of demand for goods, or is it due to a shortage of capacity.
Another question is whether macroeconomic policies can be directed
to one side of the market.
The high rate of unemployment among low-skilled workers is the
topic of the second part of this book. How important is the impact
of wage inflexibility at the lower tail of the income distribution
due to institutional factors? To what extent is it caused by
skill-biased technological change? A central issue is, again, how
economic policy could contribute to reducing unemployment among
low-skilled workers?
The persistence of unemployment is investigated in the third part.
Since the early eighties, Dutch policymakers have employed wage
moderation as a remedy for unemployment in The Netherlands.
Substantial cutbacks were made in the social security programme.
This had a moderating effect on wages, which is thought to have
contributed to employment growth. However, unemployment remained
rather high up to 1997. Why didn't unemployment fall
morequickly?
To answer these questions, economists have developed different
structural macroeconometric models. The Netherlands has a rich
tradition in using macroeconomic models for policy analysis. This
tradition originates in the work of Jan Tinbergen, Nobel laureate
in economics, and the first director of CPB Netherlands Bureau for
Economic Policy Analysis. This book, which builds on CPB's broad
experience with macroeconomic modelling, makes an important
contribution to this fine Dutch tradition.
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