The classical ARMA models have limitations when applied to the field of financial and monetary economics. Financial time series present nonlinear dynamic characteristics and the ARCH models offer a more adaptive framework for this type of problem. This book surveys the recent work in this area from the perspective of statistical theory, financial models, and applications and will be of interest to theorists and practitioners. From the view point of statistical theory, ARCH models may be considered as specific nonlinear time series models which allow for an exhaustive study of the underlying dynamics. It is possible to reexamine a number of classical questions such as the random walk hypothesis, prediction interval building, presence of latent variables etc., and to test the validity of the previously studied results. There are two main categories of potential applications. One is testing several economic or financial theories concerning the stocks, bonds, and currencies markets, or studying the links between the short and long run. The second is related to the interventions of the banks on the markets, such as choice of optimal portfolios, hedging portfolios, values at risk, and the size and times of block trading.

'... a well written book ... covering ... a vast amount of material ... well balanced between the theoretical and applied works. The authors are judicious and fair in providing a balanced treatment of the two alternative theories of growth performance: supply-oriented and demand-oriented. The book will serve as a guideline to researchers and policymakers ... as a textbook for upperdivision undergraduate and graduate courses.'- Kashi Nath Tiwari, Kennesaw State College This is the first book of its kind to argue in a consistent and comprehensive way the idea that a country's growth performance cannot be properly understood without reference to the performance of its tradeable goods sector and the strength of its balance of payments. It puts forward a demand orientated theory of why growth rates differ between countries where the major constraint on demand is the balance of payments. The book is critical of neoclassical growth analysis and provides an alternative theory of growth performance to the supply orientated approach of neoclassical theory. There are theoretical chapters comparing and contrasting neoclassical growth analysis with the new demand orientated approach, and empirical sections which apply the new model to regions and countries, including two case studies of the UK and Australia.

On October 23 and 24, 1987, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted its twelfth annual economic policy conference, "The U.S. Trade Deficit: Causes, Consequences, and Cures." This book contains the papers and comments delivered at that conference. A sharp decline in the value of the dollar against major foreign cur rencies began in March 1985 and continued through December 1987. Despite this decline, the U.S. trade deficit experienced considerable growth during this time. Many consider the simultaneous occurrence of these two events over so long a period to be a problem requiring a policy response. The conference addresses this issue. Various papers discuss the cause of the trade deficit, the reason for its size and persistence, its relation ship with other macroeconomic variables, its impact on other industrialized countries, and various policy proposals aimed at reducing the deficit. Session I Peter Hooper and Catherine L. Mann provide an analytical setting for the conference with their "The U.S. External Deficit: Its Causes and Persistence." Their observation that the unprecedentedly large U. S. trade imbalance is striking in both its size and its persistence could well be the subtitle of each of the papers presented. The macroeconomic studies, which Hooper and Mann summarize in their review of the existing literature, uniformly conclude that the deficit has not responded to fundamental macroeconomic determinants-relative U.S. income growth and the dollar's exchange rate-in the way that earlier, smaller U.S."

In the past fifteen years a new field of research has emerged in economics: the application of control theory methods to macroeconomics and to microeconomics. The papers and books which have resulted from this research are important to the development of theoretical and applied economics. However, they are inaccessible to many with interest in economics because of the technical nature of the discussion. This book attempts to make the macro economic portion of this literature more accessible by providing a discussion of the key issues using words and figures rather than mathematical symbols. I would like to thank my mentors and colleagues in control theory and economics for their help over the years: Masanao Aoki, Michael Athans, Yaakov Bar-Shalom, Jeremy Bray, Arthur Bryson, Gregory Chow, Ray Fair, Laurie Henrikson, David Livesey, Raman Mehra, Alfred Norman, Robert Pindyck, Franklin Shupp, John Taylor, Lance Taylor, Peter Tinsley, Edison Tse, and Stephen Turnovsky."

The Evolution of Monetary Policy Strategies in Europe provides a comprehensive review of the advances in European monetary policy-making over the past decades. This book examines the considerations that determine a central bank's monetary strategy and explains how these considerations have featured in recent European monetary history. In so doing, it establishes what European monetary policy-makers have learned (or should have learned) and how they learned it. At the same time, Aerdt Houben maps out the rich monetary traditions that now flow together in the new-born Eurosystem and provides important insight into a prime influence on the system's decision-making, that is, the participating countries' past experiences. The book's distinctiveness lies in its sweeping coverage of policy developments in the individual central banks of the European Union, its penetrating analysis of the country-specific learning curves and its balanced assessment of the viability of alternative monetary policy strategies, including the strategy recently adopted by the Eurosystem. It combines theoretical insights with an in-depth empirical study of monetary policy design in Europe, highlighting the specific features that have contributed to policy success or failure. While the subject of monetary policy strategy (especially that of the Eurosystem) is currently very topical, the book's detailed information on how monetary policy has actually been implemented in each of the 15 European Union countries makes it a useful reference work with a long life-span.

This collection arises from the proceedings of a conference held in 2003 on the subject of the monetary theory of production. The contributors look at a number of issues including the tradition of the monetary theory of production; stocks and flows in the monetary circuit; unemployment; monetary distribution and monetary circuit and economic policy.

Privatising firms and liberalizing their market environment generates in Eastern Europe a variety of problems, many of which are not common to the analogous attempts in industries countries. A first difference between the two experiences resides in establishing the value of the firm or of the assets that are being privatized. A second main difference concerns the lack of the record of market performance for the firm. The book explores these open questions through an overview of on-going and proposed processes in Section 1. In Section 2 theoretical foundations of privatization processes are proposed with respect to the financial market, industrial relations and foreign trade. A final key question is faced in Section 3: 'is there any alternative to privatization?'

This book challenges the mainstream paradigm, which is based on the inter-temporal optimisation of welfare by individual agents. It introduces a new methodology for studying how it is institutions which create flows of income, expenditure and production together with stocks of assets (including money) and liabilities, thereby determining how whole economies evolve through time. Starting with extremely simple stock flow consistent (SFC) models, the text describes a succession of increasingly complex models. Solutions of these models are used to illustrate ways in which whole economies evolve when shocked in various ways. Readers will be able to download all the models and explore their properties for themselves. A major conclusion is that economies require management via fiscal and monetary policy if full employment without inflation is to be achieved.

In the most comprehensive analysis of Taiwan's economic development available to date, Y. Dolly Hwang traces the economic, political, and historical factors that enabled the island to transform itself from a poor country burdened with heavy foreign debt and rampant inflation into an emerging world economic power in a period of only forty years. Hwang explores the role played by the cultural and individual aspirations of the Taiwanese; the improvements in political, social, and educational life that were made possible by the island's economic growth; Taiwan's growing contribution to the global economy; and the country's ability to rapidly narrow the technological gap between itself and the industrialized nations. Throughout, Hwang emphasizes the dynamic interrelationships among the various factors that have created Taiwan's phenomenal success. Following an overview of Taiwan's postwar economic development, Hwang surveys events in Chinese history which laid the groundwork for Taiwan's rise to a world economic power. Hwang then devotes separate chapters to the influence of Taiwan's struggle for survival on its economic development, the role of government and the technocrats, and the contribution of specific economic policies, particularly the drive to develop an export-based economy. Subsequent chapters address industrialization, international trade, Taiwan's monetary, fiscal, and financial system, Confucianism and the capitalist spirit in Taiwan, entrepreneurs and small- to medium-sized enterprises, and the parts played by the United States and Japan in Taiwan's economic development. The concluding chapter looks at likely future scenarios for the island nation, including a possible reunification with mainland China. Students of economic history, economic development, and Asian Studies will find Hwang's study enlightening reading.

Gathering contributions by leading social development scholars, this report offers a comprehensive description of the national development of cultural consumption in China. By comparing the annual growth of cultural consumption, GDP growth, per-capita income growth and savings growth, the authors reveal the disparity between urban and rural areas in terms of cultural consumption, as well as that between provinces. Based on an analysis of the status quo of cultural consumption in China, the book explores the road to a prosperous society and enhancing China's cultural development.

Among the concepts used to assess the sustainability of fiscal policy in a changing demographic environment, generational accounting has become the most prominent. This book gives a complete and up-to-date introduction to the theory and practice of the method. It reveals deficiencies of the original residual concept and discusses various measures of intergenerational redistribution based on the recent sustainability approach to generational accounting. An application using data on German public finances serves to provide an in-depth explanation and practical illustration of the technique. The study develops new procedures to evaluate the fiscal externalities of migration and the redistribution of net wealth among living generations resulting from Social Security reform. The book is an indispensable source of reference for analysts employing generational accounting and for those wishing to study intertemporal redistribution through fiscal policy.

The papers in this volume review and evaluate the wave of income tax reforms that have taken place in the industrial world over the last five years. The key issues which are singled out include the effect of the income tax on labor supply, the tax unit, the relationship with social security taxes, the taxation of capital income, international issues and the political economy of income taxation. Special attention is given to the choice between income and consumption as the appropriate tax base on efficiency and horizontal equity grounds.

This book presents the latest findings on network theory and agent-based modeling of economic and financial phenomena. In this context, the economy is depicted as a complex system consisting of heterogeneous agents that interact through evolving networks; the aggregate behavior of the economy arises out of billions of small-scale interactions that take place via countless economic agents. The book focuses on analytical modeling, and on the econometric and statistical analysis of the properties emerging from microscopic interactions. In particular, it highlights the latest empirical and theoretical advances, helping readers understand economic and financial networks, as well as new work on modeling behavior using rich, agent-based frameworks. Innovatively, the book combines observational and theoretical insights in the form of networks and agent-based models, both of which have proved to be extremely valuable in understanding non-linear and evolving complex systems. Given its scope, the book will capture the interest of graduate students and researchers from various disciplines (e.g. economics, computer science, physics, and applied mathematics) whose work involves the domain of complexity theory.

Tax practitioners are unfamiliar with tax theory. Tax economists remain unfamiliar with tax law and tax administration. Most textbooks relate mainly to the US, UK or European experiences. Students in emerging economies remain unfamiliar with their own taxation history. This textbook fills those gaps. It covers the concept of taxes in regards to their rationale, principles, design, and common errors. It addresses distortions in consumer choices and production decisions caused by tax and redressals. The main principles of taxation-efficiency, equity, stabilization, revenue productivity, administrative feasibility, international neutrality-are presented and discussed. The efficiency principle requires the minimisation of distortions in the market caused by tax. Equity in taxation is another principle that is maintained through progressivity in the tax structure. Similarly, other principles have their own ramifications that are also addressed. A country's constitutional specification of tax assignment to different levels of government-central, state, municipal-are elaborated. The UK is more centralised than the US and India. India has amended its constitution to introduce a goods and services tax (GST) covering both central and state governments. Drafting of tax law is crucial for clarity and this aspect is addressed. Furthermore, the author illustrates different types of taxes such as individual income tax, corporate income tax, wealth tax, retail sales/value added/goods and services tax, selective excises, property tax, minimum taxes such as the minimum alternate tax (MAT), cash-flow tax, financial transactions tax, fringe benefits tax, customs duties and export taxes, environment tax and global carbon tax, and user charges. An emerging concern regarding the inadequacy of international taxation of multinational corporations is covered in some detail. Structural aspects of tax administration are given particular attention.

The intention of this book is threefold: presenting and advancing German reporting on income distribution and poverty, looking at experiences with advanced reporting schemes in two other EU countries, and discussing concepts for comparable social monitoring in the European Union. The first group of papers elaborates on recent findings for Germany (trends in the personal distribution of income and income poverty, multidimensional approaches to measure poverty and extreme poverty, redistribution). Of special interest is a critical methodological review of the two main German databases for distribution analyses, taking the suggestions of the Canberra Group as a reference. The second group of contributions reviews research on income distribution and poverty in Great Britain and Ireland. The last paper discusses concepts of comparable indicators for poverty and social exclusion in the EU.

This book examines sustainable wealth formation and dynamic decision-making. The global economy experienced a veritable meltdown of asset markets in the years 2007-9, where many funds were overexposed to risky returns and suffered considerable losses. On the other hand, the long-term upswing in the stock market since 2010 has led to asset price booms and some new, but also uneven, wealth formation. In this book a broader set of constraints and guidelines for asset management and wealth accumulation is developed. The authors investigate how wealth formation and the proper management of financial funds can help to adequately buffer income risk and obtain sufficient risk-free income at a later stage of life, while also being socially and environmentally sustainable. The book explores behavioral and institutional rules for decision-making that reflect such constraints and guidelines, without necessarily being optimal in the narrow sense. The authors explain the need for such a dynamic decision-making and dynamic re-balancing of portfolios, by putting forward dynamic programming as an approach to dynamic decision-making that can allow sustainable wealth accumulation and dynamic asset allocation to be successfully integrated. This book provides a clear and comprehensive treatment of asset accumulation and dynamic portfolio models with an emphasis on long term and sustainable wealth formation. An important concern in public debate is the sustainability of our economy and this book employs cutting edge quantitative techniques and models to highlight important facts that cannot be disputed under any reasonable assumptions. It has the potential to become a standard reference for both academic researchers and quantitatively trained practitioners. Eckhard Platen, Professor of Quantitative Finance, University of Technology Sydney, Australia This book should be read by both academics and practitioners alike. The former will find intellectually rigorous discussions and innovative solutions. The latter may find a few of the concepts a bit challenging. Yet, theory and technology are there to help simplify the work of those who worry about what time it is rather than how to make a watch--- but they do need a watch. Jean Brunel, Founder of Brunel Associates and Editor of The Journal of Wealth Management

This book develops current thinking on fiscal policy, emphasizing the role which fiscal policy can play in macroeconomic policy and challenging the view that macroeconomic policy should rely on monetary policy alone. This book offers theoretical insights in defence of fiscal policy as a valid macroeconomic instrument.

This work examines the role of comptetence, organization and strategies of firms in industrial dynamics linking eceonomic, management and historical persectives. In the first part of the book, a series of economic and managerial contributions discuss the concepts, dimensions and effects of routines, competence, adaptation, learning, organizational structure and strategies in the evolution of industrial enterprises at the theoretical and empirical levels. In the second part of the book, a series of historical papers examine these issues in a long-term perspective for the United States, Japan and several European countries.

We are now living in a period of disillusion in the ability of economic policy to stabilise the economy. This is proven by the onset of severe world recession in the early 1980s and the inability to invert the negative phase of the business cycle under way in the industrialized countries in the early 1990s. The failure of old policies motivates the research into the causes of economic fluctuations and their measurement whose results are published in this volume

The chapters in this book are based on papers prepared for a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, held at the bank September 23-25, 1987, to review and compare monetary policy experiences of Pacific Basin countries during the past 15 years. The theme of the conference was conceived with two purposes in mind. First, there was (and still is) a great need to enhance knowledge on the workings of economies in the Pacific Basin, which has been the fastest growing region in the world economy during the past 30 years. While much has been written on Pacific Basin trade and economic growth, relatively few studies have been published on the conduct of monetary policy in these economies. Second, as we in the United States and others elsewhere have learned, rapid financial market changes over the last 15 years have led to considerable adjustment in the conduct of monetary policy. A comparative study of various national experiences can yield insights into the inter actions between monetary policy and financial market changes more than is obtainable by examining indi vidual national experiences separately."

Originally published between 1951 and 1987, the 8 volumes in this set: Provide a wide-ranging and critical review of both first and second generation theories of inflation (and the related problem of unemployment), including the classical approach to macroeconomics. Examine how inflation as a policy has come about in modern democracies, how it works, how to avoid it and at what cost Reassess the strengths and weaknesses of incomes policies Examine pay control policies in major Western economies and survey developments from 1945, explore the aims of pay policies and discusse the problems of implementation, comparing the different kinds of policies.

This book advances Post-Keynesian Institutional economics, an integrative tradition-inspired by keen economic observers such as John Kenneth Galbraith, Joan Robinson, and Hyman Minsky-that bridges Institutional and Post Keynesian economics. The tradition proved its worth by addressing the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, as well as by analyzing long-term trends accompanying the evolution of investor-driven ("money manager") capitalism, including financialization, spreading worker insecurity, and rising inequality. This Modern Guide begins with the history and contours of Post-Keynesian Institutionalism, and then breaks new ground, extending recent analyses of contemporary economic problems, sharpening concepts and methods, sketching new theories, and synthesizing ideas across research traditions. Written by leading scholars, this authoritative collection identifies policy-relevant frontiers-on matters ranging from social capital and economic democracy to feminism and environmental sustainability-thereby setting an ambitious agenda for further Post-Keynesian Institutionalist research. In addition to being useful as a statement of current Post-Keynesian Institutionalist issues and research, the book serves as both a valuable reference volume and a source of material appropriate for course adoption for undergraduate and graduate students. Policymakers and policy analysts dissatisfied with the status quo should also find the book of interest. It will likely be especially relevant to those concerned with financial instability, worker insecurity, and inequality, problems that in recent years have had considerable economic and political consequences.

This book makes clear that systematic gender biases are present at all levels - in institutions, markets and the household - and presents options for introducing social structures to the macro-economic agenda. The intention is to offer a new framework that brings economic theory and policy-making closer to the circumstances and motivations of real life economic agents. The contributors cover three broad areas - macro-economics and gender, gender and the state, and the institutionalisation of gender considerations in national and international organizations. Using original empirical material, in particular from Latin American countries, they explore a wide range of key issues. These include the gender-differentiated effects of economic policy and public spending decisions; unpaid household labour and its measurement; gender statistics; gender equality in planning and public policy; and the notion of economies as gendered structures. With backgrounds in a variety of disciplines, the authors go beyond a theoretical debate and place the practical realities of policy making centre stage. Their work should be relevant to development research and activity worldwide, while being particularly valuable in its emphasis on how state reform processes can advance a democratic development for women and men on equal terms.

IS-LM is perhaps the prime example of `cognitive dissonance' in economics, and is problematic to many economists. On the one hand, the IS-LM model is still taught by many academic economists or they use it to derive the AD-AS approach. On the other hand, the same economists realize the limitations of the basic IS-LM model and would not now use it for policy analysis, as they did in the past. The distinction between pedagogical and analytical efficacy is made by all the authors in this volume regarding the IS-LM model. Indeed, even those who would reject using the model for modern policy analysis still see the basic model as useful for teaching purposes. Moreover, in an augmented form, some of the authors in this volume would even see fit to use IS-LM for modern policy analysis. As will be seen, therefore, the IS-LM model is `not yet dead'. Rather, the model's `plasticity' has enabled it to undergo a metamorphosis into augmented form, enabling its continuing utilization in economics accordingly.

This book explores new topics in modern research on empirical corporate finance and applied accounting, especially the econometric analysis of microdata. Dubbed "financial microeconometrics" by the author, this concept unites both methodological and applied approaches. The book examines how quantitative methods can be applied in corporate finance and accounting research in order to predict companies getting into financial distress. Presented in a clear and straightforward manner, it also suggests methods for linking corporate governance to financial performance, and discusses what the determinants of accounting disclosures are. Exploring these questions by way of numerous practical examples, this book is intended for researchers, practitioners and students who are not yet familiar with the variety of approaches available for data analysis and microeconometrics. "This book on financial microeconometrics is an excellent starting point for research in corporate finance and accounting. In my view, the text is positioned between a narrative and a scientific treatise. It is based on a vast amount of literature but is not overloaded with formulae. My appreciation of financial microeconometrics has very much increased. The book is well organized and properly written. I enjoyed reading it." Wolfgang Marty, Senior Investment Strategist, AgaNola AG