Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

This book explores and analyzes the effects of the globalization strategies of multinational enterprises (MNEs) on national and local development and highlights the implications of these effects for policy makers. Containing contributions from leading international business scholars, the text addresses this previously little explored but critically important issues for the future of the world economy.

In recent years, analysts, researchers and environmental policy makers have been faced with a serious shortage of empirical data on environmental phenomena. In fact, the information gathered by various organisations has not yet been systematically classified into a consistent system of accounts. This book presents the results of a joint research effort by the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Italy's Central Statistical Office (ISTAT) to design a system of accounts for natural and environmental resources. The resulting environmental accounts can be integrated with the existing system of national accounts, in order to estimate the so-called green GDP' or net national product' (NNP).

In all countries debt and deficits of the public sector are at the heart of economic policy debate. Debt and deficits pose major problems, all the more pressing in Europe because of the Maastricht criteria for entry into European Monetary Union. And in the developing world debt has been associated with major financial crises. This volume, arising from an International Economic Association conference at the Bundesbank, sees academics and policy makers debate the key issues and their implications in theory and practice.

This volume of "Research in Transportation Economics" reflects the changes that are occurring in the transportation arena as we enter the twenty-first century. In the US, the transportation industries, rail and trucking in particular, are still adjusting to deregulation that has taken place since the 1970's. The emerging transportation issues focus less on economic regulation of the transport sector and more on policies to deal with congestion, optimal pricing, and the allocation of scarce resources. The papers presented represent a diverse view of transportation economics, in a field that is forever changing as regulations change, ecnomic growth continues, and our econometric and modeling methods become increasingly refined.

"The series is abstracted and indexed in Journal of Economic Literature and in EconLit."

Observers and Macroeconomic Systems is concerned with the computational aspects of using a control-theoretic approach to the analysis of dynamic macroeconomic systems. The focus is on using a separate model for the development of the control policies. In particular, it uses the observer-based approach whereby the separate model learns to behave in a similar manner to the economic system through output-injections. The book shows how this approach can be used to learn the forward-looking behaviour of economic actors which is a distinguishing feature of dynamic macroeconomic models. It also shows how it can be used in conjunction with low-order models to undertake policy analysis with a large practical econometric model. This overcomes some of the computational problems arising from using just the large econometric models to compute optimal policy trajectories. The work also develops visual simulation software tools that can be used for policy analysis with dynamic macroeconomic systems.

In recent decades, the financial markets have experienced various crises, shocks and disruptive events, driving high levels of volatility. This volatility is too strong to be fully justified simply by changes in fundamentals. This volume discusses these highly relevant issues with special focus on asset pricing and behavioral finance. Financial price assets of the 2020s appear to be driven by various attractors in addition to fundamentals, and there is no doubt that investor emotions, market sentiment, the news, and external factors such as uncertainty all play a key role. This has been clearly observed in recent years, especially during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic that has changed the common perception of the way financial markets work.

Beginning with the key changes brought about in the economy by advanced technology and organizational and institutional innovations, this book elucidates their impact on industrial systems, accumulation, firms and the processes of European integration.;This approach enables the reader to establish the links in the conceptual jungle to real processes and to chart clearly, by eliminating chaos and chance factors, the interlocking grid of political destablization and economic marginalizaton that the advance of capitalist globalization has introduced in all countries. The author suggests an alternative approach founded upon a polycentric system of co-operation and solidarity to loosen the bonds of capitalism in the 21st century.

This book from the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) deals with the implications of the exchange rate regimes and capital flows of the 1990s for government macroeconomic policy-making and EC policy co-ordination. Under the fixed exchange rates of the 1950s, economists and policy-makers had a much clearer idea of the nature of the external constraints. The commitment to defending the exchange rate is stronger in the 1990s than in the 1970s and 1980s, but at the same time international capital flows are far greater and freer than in the 1950s and 1960s, with many countries able to borrow almost indefinitely and on good terms on the Eurodollar market in order to finance their balance-of-payments deficits. This volume, derived from a conference organised jointly by CEPR and the Bank of Greece, deals with these issues in depth and includes both cross-country comparisons and case studies of individual countries.

This book examines the causes, consequences and policy significance of international capital movements and nations' external account imbalances. Traditional theoretical approaches to balance of payments analysis, such as the classical, elasticities, absorption, monetary and Mundell-Fleming models are critically evaluated against an extended international macroeconomic accounting framework. More meaningful capital theoretic models then link saving, investment and foreign capital movements to highlight the macroeconomic gains from international capital mobility and international trade in saving.

"Central bankers worldwide welcome the recent increase of research on payment systems. This volume, providing an expert overview on this timely subject, should be required reading for us all". - Erkki Liikanen, Governor of the Bank of Finland Monetary policy has been at the centre of economic research from the early stages of economic thought, but payment system research has attracted increased academic attention only in the past decade. This book's succeeds in merging these two so far largely separated fields. Innovative and groundbreaking, Schmitz and Woods initiate research on the interdependence of institutional change in the payments system and monetary policy, examining the different channels via which payment systems affect monetary policy. It explores important themes such as: conceptualization and methods of analysis of institutional change in the payments system determinants of institutional change in the payments system - political-economy versus technology empirics of institutional change in the retail and in the wholesale payments systems - policy initiatives and new technologies in the payments system implications of institutional change in the payments system for monetary policy and the instruments available to central banks to cope with it. The result is an accessible overview of conceptual and methodological approaches to institutional change in payment systems, and a comprehensive and yet thorough assessment of its implications for monetary policy. The insights this timely book provides will be invaluable for researchers and practitioners in the field of monetary economics.

The modern system-wide approach to applied demand analysis emphasizes a unity between theory and applications. Its fIrm foundations in economic theory make it one of the most impressive areas of applied econometrics. This book presents a large number of applications of recent innovations in the area. The database used consist of about 18 annual observations for 10 commodities in 18 OECO countries (more than 3,100 data points). Such a large body of data should provide convincing evidence, one way or the other, about the validity of consumption theory. A PREVIEW OF THE BOOK The overall importance of the analysis presented in the book can be seen from the following table which shows the signifIcant contribution of the OECO to the world economy. As can be seen, the 24 member countries account for about 50 percent of world GOP in 1975. In this book we present an extensive analysis of the consumption patterns of the OECO countries.

Original essays identify the channels through which inward investment can affect host economies and shape the size and structure of industrialized economies over the last decade. Leading experts in international investment and the behavior of national and multinational firms combine innovative methodologies and firm-level data to evaluate the impact of inward investment on such issues as productivity, technology, and innovation. They compare UK developments to those experienced by French, Italian, German and US economies.

The combined collapse of Iceland's three largest banks in 2008 is the third largest bankruptcy in history and the largest banking system collapse suffered by any country in modern economic history, relative to GDP. How could tiny Iceland build a banking system in less than a decade that proportionally exceeded Switzerland's? Why did the bankers decide to grow the system so fast? How did businesses tunnel money out of the banking system? And why didn't anybody stop them? Bringing Down the Banking System answers these questions. Gudrun Johnsen, Senior Researcher with Iceland's Special Investigation Commission, tells the riveting story of the rise and fall of the Icelandic banking system, describes the commission's findings on the damaging effects of holding company cross-ownership, and explains what we can learn from it all.

Lifetime distribution and redistribution is analysed in this book, in far more detail than has been attempted before. A dynamic cohort microsimulation model is used as an exciting new tool to analyse several questions which have previously been almost impossible to answer. These questions concern income distribution and redistribution, social security and income tax incidence. This book will be of interest to those working in social and economic policy who are concerned about such issues. It will also be of interest to the rapidly growing numbers of researchers and government analysts constructing microsimulation models.

Why did France, with its strong sense of national identity, want to give up the Franc for the Euro? This book, by a former British diplomat in Paris, draws on new archive evidence to explore France's drive for European Economic and Monetary Union, and how unresolved Franco-German tensions over its design led to crisis.

This is the second of two volumes to bear witness to the Cuban experience. Together with its predecessor, "Cuba: Twenty-Five Years of Revolution," it offers a positive account. Yet, it is sensitive to the dilemmas and flawed strategies in Cuba's thirty-year process of transformation. It warns that no preconceived notion of state or of development will help grasp the multifaceted nature of this nation, which reflects aspects of both developed and underdeveloped nations. Seventeen chapters, five of which are from Cuban contributors, thoroughly investigate recent political, economic, and social changes as well as the successes and failures of long-term development policies. Heavy attention is paid to the rectification process launched by Castro in 1986.

This volume portrays a Cuba facing the 1990s with a burst of increased vigor in its efforts to secure continued far-reaching transformation. Seventeen chapters describe major changes in the economic realm caught up in the rectification campaign; a slow process of liberalization in the political sphere; and a Cuba that, in social terms, is far better off than any other Latin American country.

America's Soluble Problems , while recognising the many successes of the US economy, analyses its well known problems with a fresh new approach. Are slow growth, stagnant living standards for many, increasing poverty for those worst off, the hollowing out of much US manufacturing, balance of payments and fiscal deficits, all inevitable? America's Soluble Problems argues that they are not, and that entirely achievable changes in macro - economic policy could transform the prospects for the US economy and for most American citizens.

This festschrift volume presents discussions on contemporary issues in international economics and finance. It is aimed to serve as a reference material for researchers. There are two broad sections of the book -- International Macroeconomics and International Finance. The chapters in the International Macroeconomics section discuss critical topics like aggregate level macro model for India with a new Keynesian perspective, balance of payments, service sector exports, foreign exchange constraints for import demands, foreign direct investment and knowledge spill over, the relationship between forex rate fluctuation and investment, Institutional quality-trade openness-economic growth nexus, currency crises and debt-deficit relationship in the BRICS countries in the backdrop of COVID-19. Apart from these, various analytical issues related to macroeconomic policies are also covered in this section. The topics discussed includes the nature of forex market interventions, the issue of disinvestment and privatization, changing nature of fiscal policy, the inflation-growth nexus, macroeconomic simulation modelling, measuring core inflation, central bank credibility, monetary policy, inflation targeting, Infrastructure, trade, unemployment and inequality nexus. In the International Finance section, topics such as COVID-19 induced financial crisis, commodity futures volatility, stock market connectivity, volatility persistence, determinants of sovereign bond yields, FII and stock market volatility, cryptocurrency price formation, financialization of Indian commodity market, and a Keynesian view of the financial crisis are discussed. Overall, thirty two chapters in the volume discuss cutting edge research in the areas of the two sections. A tour de force... a lucid guide to some of the diverse and complex issues in International Macroeconomics and Finance. This collection of scholarly works is a fitting tribute to respected Prof. Bandi Kamaiah and his enviable academic contributions. - Prof. Y V Reddy, Former Governor, Reserve Bank of India This volume comprising thoughtful essays by our leading scholars on some of important policy issues that India is facing is indeed a rich tribute to Professor Bandi Kamaiah . This book will greatly benefit the academic community as well as our policy makers. - Prof. Vijay Kelkar, Chairman, 13th Finance Commission of India; Chairman, India Development Foundation, Mumbai, India Noted economists from India and abroad gather to apply the rigorous searchlight that Professor Bandi Kamaiah used so effectively in his career. Major current topics in macroeconomics and international finance are effectively explored in the volume. - Prof. Ashima Goyal, Emeritus Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India; and Member, Monetary Policy Committee of Reserve Bank of India This volume of 32 papers in macroeconomics, international economics, and international finance is intended as a tribute to the eminent econometrician , Prof B Kamaiah. Post-graduate students and researchers will find much valuable literature in the volume, which is a fitting tribute to Prof Kamaiah. The editors and authors deserve rich compliments. - Prof. K L Krishna, Former Director, Delhi School of Economics, New Delhi, India I am so happy to hear that Dr. Kamaiah's colleagues and ex-students are bringing out a special volume of articles in his honor. Nothing can be more appropriate. Dr. Kamaiah, being a man of tremendous publications, deserves this tribute. I wish all the luck and success to the new book. - Prof. Kishore Kulkarni, Distinguished Professor of Economics, Metropolitan State University of Denver, USA

This book offers a comprehensive analysis of the problems that the current working of capital markets are generating on both developed and developing economies. It pays special attention to the reasons explaining the unstable and volatile working of international financial markets and to the consequences of that behaviour on both the economic performance of the involved countries and on the economic policies implemented.

First Published in 2005. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.