How can we effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ?wisdom of the crowd Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies in providing, for example, improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services.

The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza outbreaks to the spread of other infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like surveys, group deliberations, and expert opinion. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes.

This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should appeal to all those with an interest in economics, forecasting or public policy, and in particular those with an interest in the study of money, investment and risk.

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) encompasses the legislative text and political resolutions regulating fiscal policy and public finances in EMU. The contributions in this volume analyze the institutional, legal, theoretical and empirical aspects of the SGP, examine its development and evaluate its main implications. The authors include academic economists, who provide insightful analysis, and policy makers who have contributed to the shaping of the pact and have a direct responsibility for its implementation. This book is the definitive source of reference on the SGP for academics, policy makes and economists.

Sir Alan Walters ex-chief economic advisor to PM Margaret Thatcher Whether it succeeds or fails, Europe is everyone's concern. The idea of a united Europe has been entertained, even partially at least, achieved, inter alia, CharlemagI e, Napoleon, Hitler, and in our da)' by Spaak, Monet and Chancellor Kohl: the first three by military conquest, the last three by "negotiation" and the creation of integrating institutional arrangements. The motives varied from the twisted paranoia of the Nazis to the idealism of SpaaklMonet/Kohl in avoiding conflicts and wars. Under the protection of NATO the European Coal and Steel Community soon was transformed into the EEC by the 1957 Treaty of Rome. The massive reduction of trade barriers, particularly between France and Germany, was rewarded by vigorous growth over the next 15 years. Even as late as 1972, when Britain acceeded to the Treaty of Rome, the EEC was thought to be lar ely a customs union: in de Gaulle eyes the EEC was simply a collection of sovereISJ: l states who cooperated primarily on trade. Each state however enjoyed a veto; deCIsions had to be unanimous.

The European economy is emerging from its deepest recession since the 1930s. This volume, which brings together economic analysis from the European Commission services, explains how swift policy response avoided a financial meltdown; but turning the ongoing recovery into sustained growth requires action on five challenges: boosting potential output, enhancing labour market flexibility, preparing fiscal consolidation, facilitating intra-EU adjustment, and unwinding global imbalances. Europe also needs an improved co-ordinated crisis-management framework to help it respond to any similar situations that may arise in the future. Economic Crisis in Europe shows that the beginnings of such a crisis-management framework are emerging, building on existing institutions and legislation and complemented by new initiatives. Naturally, initial EU policy efforts, such as fiscal stimulus, focused on crisis control and mitigation. But first steps have also been taken to redesign financial regulation and supervision with crisis prevention in mind. The design of crisis resolution policies is now becoming a main task. While any premature withdrawal of policy stimulus should be avoided, exit strategies should be ready for implementation, embedded in a broader policy framework that also includes growth-enhancing structural reforms.

This book began when a letter reached my desk in November 1989. Written by Warren Samuels, professor of economics at Michigan State University and editor for Kluwer Academic Publishers, the letter reviewed the philosophy behind Kluwer's series on recent economic thought and accordingly expressed interest in the controversies that surround con temporary topics in the discipline. It graciously went on to invite me to organize, consonant with that philosophy, a volume of chapters on saving. Soon thereafter I learned that the chapters were to be original compositions. I also learned that I would have substantial flexibility in structuring the volume and in recruiting contributors, who logically would be authorities in the field. Succinctly, Samuels was inviting me to work with leading scholars in exploring the current controversies in saving, one of my favorite subjects. That invitation was simply too tempting to refuse. Preparation of the book's outline went smoothly. It was obvious that the statistics of saving should be covered along with the theories of saving. It was equally obvious that special issues must be addressed: Ricardian Equivalence, supply-side doctrine, and economic development among others. These themes should be handled so as to bring out the ideological tensions in the profession, and that criterion helped to shape the list of potential contributors. That is, both sides of a conflict should be represented, and both should be given the same treatment."

The aim of this book is to deepen our understanding of financial crimes as phenomena. It uses concepts of existential philosophies that are relevant to dissecting the phenomenon of financial crimes. With the help of these concepts, the book makes clear what the impact of financial crimes is on the way a human being defines himself or the way he focuses on a given notion of humankind. The book unveils how the growth of financial crimes has contributed to the increase of the anthropological gap, and how the phenomenon of financial crimes now distorts the way we understand humankind. Using the existential philosophies of Kierkegaard, Nietzsche, Jaspers, Buber, Heidegger, and Marcel, the book sheds light on how these philosophies can help to better perceive and describe financial crimes. Next it looks at prevention strategies from an organizational perspective, using concepts of Sartre, Gadamer and Tillich. The book provides readers with existential principles that will help them be more efficient when they have to design and implement prevention strategies against corporate crime.

The Routledge Handbook of South Asian Economics addresses the recent economic transformation in South Asia. Leading experts in the field look at the major economic achievements and challenges for the region and examine why economic development across the South Asia region has diverged so significantly since the early 1990s. Providing a cutting-edge review of the economies of South Asia, the Handbook analyzes key growth areas as well as key structural weaknesses and policy challenges facing these economies. Furthermore, it anticipates trends and suggests corrective measures for the South Asian economic region. Sections focus on issues of human development, such as inequality, poverty and quality of schooling, and monetary and fiscal issues, particularly in light of the ongoing global financial crisis. Further sections discuss issues relating to employment and infrastructure, and on the experience of the region with international trade and financial flows, and environmental challenges. Written by renowned and respected experts on South Asian economics, this Handbook will be an invaluable reference work for students and academics as well as policy makers interested in South Asian Studies, Economics and Development Studies.

The focus of this study is the economic performance of East Asia since the 1960s. It looks at the common forces, generated by each country's policies, that jointly produced successful outcomes. The roles of macroeconomic and microeconomic factors are analysed. For comparison, the same framework is used to examine the less successful performance of the Indian economy. The analysis emphasises the significance of the overall institutional context in which policies are implemented in determining their effectiveness.

This reissue, first published in 1982, is the first of two volumes on the causes and cure of Stagflation - the two-headed monster that combines mass unemployment with rapid inflation, which affected contemporary economies across the industrially developped world in the 1970s.

Professor Meade outlines the nature of the problem, contrasting the Great Slump of the 1930s with the Great Stagflation of the 1970s and comparing the Orthodox Keynesian and Monetarist approaches with the New Keynesian strategy. Various proposals for the reform of wage-fixing institutions are discussed, including the limitation of trade-union bargaining powers, an official incomes policy, labour management and ownership in business, and tax or subsidy measures to discourage inflationary rises in wages and prices.

The book will be essential reading for all concerned with both the theory and policy of contemporary macroeconomics, industrial relations, labour economics and labour law. It has been written so that the general argument in the main text is accessible to the general reader as well as of interest to the professional economist.

This book explores the new economics of monetary union. It carefully discusses the effects of shocks and policies on output and prices. Shocks and policies are country-specific or common. They occur on the demand or supply side. Countries can differ in behavioural functions. Wages can be fixed, flexible, or slow. In addition, fixed wages and flexible wages can coexist. Take for instance fixed wages in Germany and flexible wages in France. Or take fixed wages in Europe and flexible wages in America. A special feature of this book is the numerical estimation of shock and policy multipliers. Further topics are inflation and disinflation. Take for instance inflation in Germany and price stability in France. Then what policy is needed for disinflation in the union? And what will be the dynamic effects on Germany and France?

First published in 1983, this is the second of two volumes on the causes and cure of stagflation ? that combination of mass unemployment and rapid inflation that is currently afflicting the mixed economies of the industrially developed world. The authors deplore the unemployment due to the failure of governments to adopt Keynesian measures for the expansion of economic activity, but recognise that in present conditions such measures would lead to an unacceptable and explosive inflation of money wages and prices. They therefore advocate a dual strategy of financial policies for a steady expansion of total money incomes combined with individual wage rates set at levels to promote employment.

The book is of importance for all those concerned with macroeconomic theory and policy. The description of the meaning of a New Keynesian policy and of the arguments for it have been written in a way which should be intelligible to policy-makers and students, and not only to economists with technical training. Professional macroeconomists will be interested not only in these sections but also in the fully specified macroeconomic model used to analyse New Keynesian policies in economic terms and to carry out a counterfactual re-running of history. In addition, the unusually detailed exposition of the application of control techniques to a difficult multivariable control problem also makes the book of interest to control engineers who wish to acquaint themselves with recent generalisations of classical frequency response methods.

Innovation in banking should be directed at improving the infrastructure that fosters efficient financial services and international trade. In this work, innovation theory is used to show how modern payment systems have transformed the technology of banking and facilitated changes in the strategy and structure of financial services organisations. Design, implementation and dissemination of payment systems are described and the analysis of their costs and benefits is combined with case studies of banks undergoing change. By studying firm capabilities, competencies, and resources, the approach is extended to services in general and linked to the ability of firms to compete and promote national economies. Payment systems vary and advanced and developing economies face obstacles in their legal and technical infrastructure, and maturity of banks. By adopting an international perspective, the book offers a unique comparative analysis that shows what kind of investments are likely to be effective.

The book aims to give non-economists a detailed understanding of how macroeconomic policy works in modern economies, and the issues it faces. The world has recently been through a huge economic crisis and thinking people everywhere have reason to wonder whether something is not seriously wrong with the policy regimes underlying these dramatic events in the major economies, and whether changes should be made. The author reviews the history of the successive regimes tried and found wanting in the second half of the last century and proposes a set of reforms designed to convert the flawed neo-liberal consensus of the 1990s into a durable regime for the present century.

Financial Crisis, penned by Adrian Buckley, offers a fascinating close-up analysis of the causes of the 2007/8 financial crisis and its consequences placing the world of finance under the microscope, bringing together evidence of the involvement of banks, governments and regulators. It questions some of its most dangerous and dubious practices, witnessed while searching for the answer to the question: What really caused the financial crisis?

Originally published in 1994, this book, divided into three parts, examines macroeconomic models in a non-technical way. Part I discusses the importance of macroeconomic modelling; Part II examines the rise and fall of Keynesian income-expenditure models; and part III evaluates the evidence and presents a critique of how we can learn from these models now and in the future.

First published in 1991, this book uses a property rights perspective to analyse why there is such widespread resistance to change in the Soviet Economic System. Many within the ruling stratum benefit considerably from their positions, particularly in terms of access to goods and services. In an original conclusion Jan Winiecki argues that a cost-effective way of removing the resistance of the parasitic ruling stratum would be a system of compensatory payments.

This book sheds new light on the critical importance of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), a remarkably successful central bank that is a model for developing oil exporters worldwide. As a "swing producer", Saudi Arabia has traditionally stepped in to make up for oil supply shortfalls in other OPEC countries, or to scale back their own production when overabundance might lead to a price crash. Since 2014, Saudi Arabia has changed its policy in response to the rise of American shale oil, in search of a long-term strategy that will, once again, help balance supply and demand at a steady price. In its informal dual role of central bank and sovereign wealth fund, SAMA must navigate the paradoxes faced by monoline oil producing countries: the need for diversification vs. dependence on oil-based revenue; the loss of foreign exchange reserves that follows oil-financed government spending; the unreliability of revenue from oil; the challenges of using a Western model for supervising Shariah-compliant banks; and the need to have a balancing mix of oil and financial assets. As SAMA (now the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority) reassesses its role in 2017, this history and guide to current policy issues will prove invaluable for policymakers in oil producing economies looking to apply lessons from the past as they plan for the future.

The Reconstruction of Poland, 1914-23 is a significant reappraisal of the political, social and economic problems associated with the rebirth of an independent Polish state. The book spans a chronological period beginning in the First World War and culminates in the de jure recognition of the last of Poland's borders in 1923. This book provides essential background for the more recent attempt to rebuild Poland in the 1990s.

Usually, when we consider the information that is given in a household budget survey, we do so in terms of expenditures for different goods and services and how these relate to income, prices, and socio demographic factors such as age, family size, and education. Allocation of expenditures amongst different categories of consumption is seen as being determined by tastes and preferences acting in conjunction with a constraint imposed by prices and income. The parameters thus obtained are obviously useful in analyzing the impact on consumption resulting from changes in income and prices (should the latter be available), but income and price elasticities, in themselves, say little about the internal structure of consumption spending. How expenditures for housing, transportation, and personal care to pick three standard categories of consumption spending - are related to expenditures for food, for example, has never been a direct focus of empirical study. This book focuses on these relationships and provides insight into consumer behavior that complements and goes beyond that given by conventional price and income elasticities, making it of interest to students as well as economists in both government and academia concerned with consumer behavior.

The single European Market, the Second Banking Directive, relaxation of cross-border capital and funds movements and the possible introduction of a single European currency have led most corporations to adopt new cash management strategies, or to plan for major structural changes in the near future. This book focuses upon treasury and electronic banking practices in European Cash Management. It is based upon research done by 19 leading European Business Schools and practitioners involved in planning, gathering and analysing data and will include discussion of recent themes and issues.

Originally published in1985, Jim Tomlinson charters the route of British macroeconomic policy in the post-war era. This book argues that the objectives of macroeconomic policy have not been constant; that the emphasis has shifted from one item to another over time; and that this uncertainty and inconsistency over objectives goes a long way to explaining why macroeconomics management has not been a startling success.

First published in 1977, this is an applied economics text, in which the basic theory of any introductory economics couurse is applied to a whole range of UK macro- and micro-economic policy issues. The book is designed specifically for first and second year university students, with the aim of demonstrating the relevance of theory to policy, how theory can be applied to policy problems and, in the process, to improve their understanding of the theory itself.

The main purpose of this book is to discuss the issues in globalization and financial system from an international political economic perspective. This book also covers the manuscripts closely related to the current instruments and actors in the global financial system. The novelty of the book is to discuss the managerial and financial issues on the global financial strategies. Thecontributions in this volumeare peer-reviewed by the society for study of business andfinance.

An authoritative examination for top international policymakers and academics conducting monetary policy arising from a conference organised by the Banca d'Italia. The yield curve - the relation among market interest rates of different maturities - is a key benchmark for evaluating investment strategies in the global financial market. To a growing extent, central banks use it to evaluate, explain to the public and monitor the results of policy decisions.

This book provides the first comprehensive and accessible account of the evolution of exchange rate regimes in the twentieth century. It presents a chronological, non-technical history and in doing so manages to link the past with the present to shed new light on the merits of different exchange rate systems.Since the golden age before the First World War, the international monetary system has experienced several changes in exchange rate regimes, alternating between fixed and floating rate systems interspersed with managed or dirty floats. The authors examine and assess the evolution of exchange rate regimes since the First World War to the present day. They discuss the forces that have brought about change in order to determine how different regimes affected the economic environment. They consider the merits or otherwise of the respective regimes and assess the evidence and arguments for and against fixed and floating exchange rate systems. Exchange Rate Regimes in the Twentieth Century provides a coherent and manageable analysis of a complex subject. It will prove invaluable to both undergraduates and postgraduates studying economic history, international economics and international studies.