With the vision that machines can be rendered smarter, we have witnessed for more than a decade tremendous engineering efforts to implement intelligent sys tems. These attempts involve emulating human reasoning, and researchers have tried to model such reasoning from various points of view. But we know precious little about human reasoning processes, learning mechanisms and the like, and in particular about reasoning with limited, imprecise knowledge. In a sense, intelligent systems are machines which use the most general form of human knowledge together with human reasoning capability to reach decisions. Thus the general problem of reasoning with knowledge is the core of design methodology. The attempt to use human knowledge in its most natural sense, that is, through linguistic descriptions, is novel and controversial. The novelty lies in the recognition of a new type of un certainty, namely fuzziness in natural language, and the controversality lies in the mathematical modeling process. As R. Bellman [7] once said, decision making under uncertainty is one of the attributes of human intelligence. When uncertainty is understood as the impossi bility to predict occurrences of events, the context is familiar to statisticians. As such, efforts to use probability theory as an essential tool for building intelligent systems have been pursued (Pearl [203], Neapolitan [182)). The methodology seems alright if the uncertain knowledge in a given problem can be modeled as probability measures.

Today's MIS manager must understand and apply the latest thinking on the crucial management functions: planning, organizing, directing, and controlling. Moreover, not only must managers understand the research-based foundations underlying this thinking, they must also know how to leverage the new MIS technologies and incorporate them into it. Thierauf's new book guides managers through the technology/managerial function interface, explains latest research and its applications, and then provides MIS managers, their external auditors and consultants, with a unique questionnaire to help them assess the performance of their MIS groups and their own managerial effectiveness. With illustrations, checklists, guidelines, and unusual clarity of presentation, not only will Thierauf's book help MIS managers and those they report to understand better their day-to-day tasks, but it will also shed new light on the technologies themselves and their inevitable work impacts.

Problems with high stakes, involving human perceptions and judgements, and whose resolutions have long-term repercussions, call for a rational approach to their solution. Strategic Decision Making provides an effective, formal methodology that gives assistance to such strategic level decision making problems. Focusing on applying the AHP to decision-making problems in engineering, Strategic Decision Making explores the three main endeavours of human existence: business, defence and governance. Many years of successfully applying Strategic Decision Making in these domains have created extensive results covering many complex planning, resource, allocation and priority setting problems throughout industry and business. Case studies drawn from years of successful, practical application experience. Discusses applications of decision making for real life problems. Worked examples and solutions to problems throughout. The reader will gain comprehensive exposure to the extent of assistance that a formal methodology, such as AHP, can provide to the decision maker in evolving decisions in complex and varied domains. Decision makers, in business and industry around the world, will find this valuable for practical use as a working tool.

This book arose out of an invited feature article on visualization and opti mization that appeared in the ORSA Journal on Computing in 1994. That article briefly surveyed the current state of the art in visualization as it ap plied to optimization. In writing the feature article, it became clear that there was much more to say. Apparently others agreed, and thus this book was born. The book is targeted primarily towards the optimization community rather than the visualization community. Although both optimization and visualization both seek to help people understand complex problems, prac titioners in one field are generally unaware of work in the other field. Given the common goals of the respective fields, it seemed fruitful to consider how each can contribute to the other. One might argue that this book should not be focused specifically on optimization but on decision making in general. Perhaps, but it seems that there is sufficient material to create a book targeted specifically to optimization. Certainly many of the ideas presented in the book are appli cable to other areas, including computer simulation, decision theory and stochastic modeling. Another book could discuss the use of visualization in these areas."

Knowledge Management and Organizational Memories presents models, methods, and techniques for building, managing and using corporate memories. These models incorporate knowledge bases, ontologies, documents, FAQs, workflow systems, case-based reasoning systems, multi-agent systems, and CSCW. The book is divided into five parts: methods; knowledge-based approaches; ontologies and documents; case-based reasoning approaches; and distributed and collaborative approaches.

This practical book serves as a comprehensive guide to quantitative portfolio optimization, asset allocation, and risk management. Providing an accessible yet rigorous approach to investment management, it gradually introduces ever more advanced quantitative tools for these areas. Using extensive examples, this book guides the reader from basic return and risk analysis, all the way through to portfolio optimization and risk characterization, and finally on to fully fledged quantitative asset allocation and risk management. It employs such tools as enhanced modern portfolio theory using Monte Carlo simulation and advanced return distribution analysis, analysis of marginal contributions to absolute and active portfolio risk, Value-at-Risk and Extreme Value Theory.

The Cold War Era left the major participants, the United States and the former Soviet Union (FSU), with large legacies in terms of both contamination and potential accidents. Facility contamination and environmental degradation, as well as the accident vulnerable facilities and equipment, are a result of weapons development, testing, and production. Although the countries face similar issues from similar activities, important differences in waste management practices make the potential environmental and health risks of more immediate concern in the FSU and Eastern Europe. In the West, most nuclear and chemical waste is stored in known contained locations, while in the East, much of the equivalent material is unconfined, contaminating the environment. In the past decade, the U.S. started to address and remediate these Cold War legacies. Costs have been very high, and the projected cost estimates for total cleanup are still increasing. Currently in Russia, the resources for starting such major activities continue to be unavailable."

Metadecisions: Rehabilitating Epistemology constitutes an epistemological inquiry about the foundations of knowledge of a scientific discipline. This text warns contemporary scientific disciplines that neglecting epistemological issues threatens the viability of their pronouncements and designs.

It shows that the processes by which complex artefacts are created require a pluralistic approach to artefact design.

It argues that viable solutions to fundamental problems in each discipline require cooperation, creativity and respect for contributions from all walks of life, all levels of logic and all standards of rigor - be they in the natural sciences, the social sciences, engineering sciences, management, the law or political sciences.
Several true cases, obtained from different walks of life are used to illustrate logic levels in problems and how the application of the process of modeling/metamodeling helps to conceptualize problem dysfunctions and to convert decisions into metadecisions.

Ten cases spanning subjects like Doctor Assisted Suicides (DASs), Advising Women on The Risks of Mammograms, a Deregulation Crusade, The Crash of TWA Flight 800, The Control of The World Wide Web, The Creation of the US Department of Homeland Security, among others, are used to illustrate the application of the metasystem framework to increase knowledge and meaning of fundamental problems.

The design of any human activity requires the intervention of several inquiring systems where the manager, the engineer, the scientist, the lawyer, the epistemologist, the ethicist and even the artist contribute to shape how problems in the real-world are formulated, how decisions/metadecisions to solve problems are taken, and finally, how actions are implemented.

Radical Decision Making offers a controversial new framework to the conventional strategic change management conversation. While many approaches provide a discussion on a singular level, Dr. Hruska blends theory and research of decision making and social interaction to develop a consistent framework of strategic change.

As its title implies, Advances in Multicriteria Analysis presents the most recent developments in multicriteria analysis and in some of its principal areas of application, including marketing, research and development evaluation, financial planning, and medicine. Special attention is paid to the interaction between multicriteria analysis, decision support systems and preference modeling. The five sections of the book cover: methodology; problem structuring; utility assessment; multi-objective optimisation; real world applications. Audience: Researchers and professionals who are operations researchers, management scientists, computer scientists, statisticians, decision analysts, marketing managers and financial analysts.

This book is a report to the Executive Board of the Rijnmond Public Authority. The report presents the results of a pilot study of the risks to the employees in, and the population around six industrial installations. The installations were selected to illustrate various materials and technologies present in this area e.g. toxic, flammable, cryogenic and pressure storage. The study was performed in close cooperation between authorities, industry and consultants. The report consists of 5 parts: Part I is the report of the Steering Committee, which managed the whole project. It contains the background, the aims of the study, conclusions, general comments and recommendations. Appendices I and 2 give information about the parties involved in the study and the screening process applied to the collected safety data respectively. Part 2, the main report by Cremer and Warner Ltd., presents the way the risk analysis of the six industrial installations was performed. All the steps necessary to carry out such an analysis are presented and discussed. The final results are given in tables showing the average number of fatalities per year both for employees and the population. Appendices I to VII contain the calculation models used (dischar ge rates, dispersion, combustion, etc.). Appendices VII to X give a historical review of incidents, fai lure rate data and meteorological data respectively. Appendix XII gives the final results of the consequence analyses and appendix XIII presents the fault trees and derivation of failure rates."

This book brings together three great motifs of the network society: the seeking and using of information by individuals and groups; the creation and application of knowledge in organizations; and the fundamental transformation of these activities as they are enacted on the Internet and the World Wide Web. Of the three, the study of how individuals and groups seek information probably has the longest history, beginning with the early "information needs and uses" studies soon after the Second World War. The study of organizations as knowledge-based social systems is much more recent, and really gained momentum only within the last decade or so. The study of the World Wide Web as information and communication media is younger still, but has generated tremendous excitement, partly because it has the potential to reconfigure the ways in which people seek information and use knowledge, and partly because it offers new methods of analyzing and measuring how in fact such information and knowledge work gets done. As research endeavors, these streams overlap and share conceptual constructs, perspectives, and methods of analysis. Although these overlaps and shared concerns are sometimes apparent in the published research, there have been few attempts to connect these ideas explicitly and identify cross-disciplinary themes. This book is an attempt to fill this void. The three authors of this book possess contrasting backgrounds and thus adopt complementary vantage points to observe information seeking and knowledge work.

Run every project smoothly, successfully and on time This book contains a range of essential checklists for busy project managers, each one of which has been developed, tested and proven to work. Brilliant Checklists for Project Managers quickly provides hundreds of practical tips, techniques and strategies, based on proven insider knowledge and expertise to help you to deliver brilliant projects. Complete your projects successfully, on time and within budget Understand and master all aspects of any project Run any type of project, no matter what size Quickly find the answers you need just when you need them Everything you need to know, think about and do to run your project successfully and efficiently.

This is the first comprehensive book to present, in English, the multicriteria methodology for decision aiding. In the foreword the distinctive features and main ideas of the European School of MCDA are outlined. The twelve chapters are essentially expository in nature, but scholarly in treatment. Some questions, which are too often neglected in the literature on decision theory, such as how is a decision made, who are the actors, what is a decision aiding model, how to define the set of alternatives, are discussed. Examples are used throughout the book to illustrate the various concepts. Ways to model the consequences of each alternative and building criteria taking into account the inevitable imprecisions, uncertainties and indeterminations are described and illustrated. The three classical operational approaches of MCDA: synthesis in one criterion (including MAUT), synthesis by outranking relations, interactive local judgements, are studied. This methodology tries to be a theoretical or intellectual framework directed towards formulating recommendations for action. The book is addressed to graduate students, postgraduates and researchers in management sciences, or operations research or decision analysis, as well as all scientists who use models and methods for guiding decisions. In addition all those who, in business and administration, wish to take part in decision-making through scientific reasoning will be interested.

Offshore Risk Assessment is the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for some years in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions. The book starts with a thorough discussion of risk analysis methodology. Subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems. Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: Fire, explosion, collision and falling objects. Risk mitigation and control are then discussed, followed by an outline of an alternative approach to risk modelling that focuses especially on the risk of short-duration activities. Not only does the book describe the state of the art of QRA, it also identifies weaknesses and areas that need development. Readership: Besides being a comprehensive reference for academics and students of marine/offshore risk assessment and management, the book should also be owned by professionals in the industry, contractors, suppliers, consultants and regulatory authorities.

Business modelling is a vast arena of research and practice, which is gaining increasing important in the rapid development of e-commerce, globalization, and in particular, the movement toward global e-business. The ability to utilize advanced computing technology to model, analyse and simulate various aspects of ever-changing businesses has made a significant impact on the way businesses are designed and run these days. With the current global e-business and e-commerce initiatives, it has become important that all businesses carefully validate their business objectives, requirements, and strategies through a careful process of formal business modelling. It is important for effective enterprise decision making to have clear, concise business models that allow the extraction of critical value from business processes and specify the rules to be globally enforced. Particularly in e-business specifications, the need to be unambiguous, accurate, and complete becomes even greater, because there may be no human mediator or agent to rely on in complex or unforeseen situations. Business Modelling: Multidisciplinary Approaches - Economics, Operational, and Information Systems Perspectives, arranged in three parts, brings scholarly perspectives from various disciplines to bear on some of the critical aspects of business modeling. The first part (chapters 1-8) focuses on business modelling fundamentals and starts with a series of economics and operations research perspectives. The second part (chapters 9-19) concentrates on modelling in electronic businesses and focuses on Management Information Systems and Decision Support Systems. The third part (chapters 20-22) centers on multidisciplinary business modelling progress, in particular on the seminal work of Professor Andrew B. Whinston.

This book proposes a conception of the corporate strategy making process that recognizes the individual strategy maker as a center-stage corporate actor. This individual-centered view of the stategy making process is needed in order to better understand the interplay between objective factors and the subjective perceptions and values of strategy makers. Using a large sample of executives working in two of the ten largest U.S. commercial banks, Das examines empirically the dynamics of two critical aspects of the role of individual strategy makers: future orientation and perceptions of the strategic planning milieu. He discusses the various implications of his findings for further research into the strategy making process. The author demonstrates the utility of individual future orientation in understanding how strategy makers influence the character of the eventual corporate strategy. The results of Das' study help to explain why long-range planning is really more short-range than anyone cares to admit.

One of the greatest challenges facing those concerned with health and environmental risks is how to carry on a useful public dialogue on these subjects. In a democracy, it is the public that ultimately makes the key decisions on how these risks will be controlled. The stakes are too high for us not to do our very best. The importance of this subject is what led the Task Force on Environmental Cancer and Heart and Lung Disease to establish an Interagency Group on Public Education and Communication. This volume captures the essence of the "Workshop on the Role of Government in Health Risk Communication and Public Education" held in January 1987. It also includes some valuable appendixes with practical guides to risk communication. As such, it is an important building block in the effort to improve our collective ability to carry on this critical public dialogue. Lee M. Thomas Administrator, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, and Chairman, The Task Force on Environmental Cancer and Heart and Lung Disease Preface The Task Force on Environmental Cancer and Heart and Lung Disease is an interagency group established by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 (P.L. 95-95). Congress mandated the Task Force to recommend research to determine the relationship between environmental pollutants and human disease and to recommend research aimed at reduc ing the incidence of environment-related disease. The Task Force's Project Group on Public Education and Communication focuses on education as a means of reducing or preventing disease."

This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.

Decision Theory and Decision Analysis: Trends and Challenges is divided into three parts. The first part, overviews, provides state-of-the-art surveys of various aspects of decision analysis and utility theory. The second part, theory and foundations, includes theoretical contributions on decision-making under uncertainty, partial beliefs and preferences. The third section, applications, reflects the real possibilities of recent theoretical developments such as non-expected utility theories, multicriteria decision techniques, and how these improve our understanding of other areas including artificial intelligence, economics, and environmental studies.

The successful first edition provided an introduction to the valuation and risk management of modern financial instruments, formulated in a precise mathematical expression and comprehensively covering all relevant topics using consistent and exact notation. In this edition, Deutsch continues with this philosophy covering new and more advanced topics including risk adjusted performance and portfolio optimization. This edition also includes a CD-ROM in the form of Excel workbooks giving detailed models of the concepts discussed in the book.

The authors of this book have developed a clear and effective framework for evaluating IT strategies - Information Orientation. Information Orientation does this by determining the degree to which a company implements and realizes the synergies across three information capabilitiess - information behaviour and values; information management practices; and IT practices. The book combines a focus on business relevance with strong empirical research.