Israel's flawed intelligence assessment in October 1973 has been
studied intensively and been the subject of much public and
professional debate. This book adds a unique dimension to
previously disclosed material, as its author served as head of the
Research Branch of Israeli Military Intelligence on the eve of and
during the Yom Kippur War and as such was responsible for the
national intelligence assessment at the time. Drawing on his
personal records, and on interviews and extensive research
conducted in the intervening decades, Aryeh Shalev examines the
preconceptions and common beliefs that prevailed among Israeli
intelligence officials and ultimately contributed to their flawed
assessment: the excessive self-confidence in Israel's prowess,
particularly in the aftermath of the Six Day War; the confidence
that any surprise attack could be repelled with the regular army
until the reserves were mobilised; the accepted profile of Sadat as
a weak leader with limited powers and initiative; and the belief in
Israel's correct understanding of Egyptian and Syrian operational
plans . . . Beyond explaining where Israeli intelligence erred, the
book probes expectations of military intelligence in general and
the relationship between military and political assessments. It
considers what kind of assessment an intelligence branch is capable
of producing with a great degree of certainty, and conversely, what
kind of assessment it should not be asked to produce. Based on the
intelligence failure of the Yom Kippur War, this book also reviews
possible organisational changes and methodological improvements to
guard as much as possible against surprise attacks in the future,
relevant not only to Israel's circumstances but to all countries
with enemies capable of launching an attack. Published in
association with the Institute for National Strategic Studies.
General
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