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Books > Social sciences > Warfare & defence > Defence strategy, planning & research > Military intelligence

Spy - Uncovering Craig Williamson (Paperback): Jonathan Ancer Spy - Uncovering Craig Williamson (Paperback)
Jonathan Ancer 6
R280 R219 Discovery Miles 2 190 Save R61 (22%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

It was in 1972 when the seemingly ordinary Craig Williamson registered at Wits University and joined the National Union of South African Students (NUSAS). Williamson was elected NUSAS’s vice president and in January 1977, when his career in student politics came to an abrupt end, he fled the country and from Europe continued his anti-apartheid ‘work’. But Williamson was not the activist his friends and comrades thought he was. In January 1980, Captain Williamson was unmasked as a South African spy.

Williamson returned to South Africa and during the turbulent 1980s worked for the foreign section of the South African Police’s notorious Security Branch and South Africa’s ‘super-spy’ transformed into a parcel-bomb assassin.

Through a series of interviews with the many people Williamson interacted with while he was undercover and after his secret identity was eventually exposed, Jonathan Ancer details Williamson’s double life, the stories of a generation of courageous activists, and the book eventually culminates with Ancer interviewing South Africa’s ‘super-spy’ face-to-face. It deals with crucial issues of justice, reconciliation, forgiveness, betrayal and the consequences of apartheid that South Africans are still grappling with.

Agent 407 - A South African Spy Breaks Her Silence (Paperback): Olivia Forsyth Agent 407 - A South African Spy Breaks Her Silence (Paperback)
Olivia Forsyth 2
R546 Discovery Miles 5 460 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

In the world of espionage, truth is the first victim and nothing is as it seems. Here, for the first time, South Africa’s most notorious apartheid spy, Olivia Forsyth, lays bare the story of her remarkable life. With remarkable courage and brutal honesty she attempts to set the record straight.

Olivia Forsyth was a romantic young woman in search of adventure when she joined the Security Police with visions of international derring-do. But Craig Williamson, her unit head, had other ideas. Olivia was trained to spy on students before being dispatched to Rhodes University, a supposed ‘hotbed’ of anti-apartheid radicalism. It wasn’t long before Olivia had infiltrated various student organisations, feeding vital information back to her handler.

She came to hold prominent positions on campus and, as reward, was promoted to Lieutenant. Having reached the end of her studies, Olivia set her sights on a much more ambitious – and dangerous – target: the ANC in exile. But what should have been her greatest triumph as a spy turned into disaster when the ANC threw her into Quatro, the notorious internment camp in Angola. This is a riveting story set in the final years of apartheid.

SAS - The Illustrated History of the SAS (Hardcover): Joshua Levine SAS - The Illustrated History of the SAS (Hardcover)
Joshua Levine
R525 Discovery Miles 5 250 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The authorised illustrated history of the SAS by the number one bestselling author of Dunkirk, Joshua Levine. With never-before-seen photographs and unheard stories, this is the SAS’s wartime history in vivid and astonishing detail. The SAS began as a lie, a story of a British parachute unit in the North African desert, to convince the Axis they were under imminent threat. The lie was so effective that soon a small band of men were brought together to make it real. These recruits were the toughest and brightest of their cohort, the most resilient, most dynamic and most self-sufficient. Their first commanders, David Stirling and Paddy Mayne, would go down in history as unorthodox visionaries. Yet this book tells much more than the usual origin story of the unit and seeks out less well-known leaders like Bill Fraser, who was essential in helping the SAS achieve fame for their devastating raids. By looking beyond the myth, this book brings back to life a group of men who showed immense bravery and endured unimaginable risks behind enemy lines. Written with the full cooperation of the SAS and with exclusive access to SAS archives, Levine draws on individual stories and personal testimony, including interviews with veterans and family members. On every page, the book gives a visceral sense of what it was like to fight and train in the SAS in both North Africa and Europe during the Second World War, focusing on their failures as well as their successes. This book is vivid with the characters of the men, their eclectic personalities, their strengths, weaknesses and many disagreements. Levine has uncovered a remarkable portrait of this enigmatic unit with photographs and stories long thought lost to history

Marriage and Mayhem for the Tobacco Girls - The BRAND NEW page-turning historical saga from Lizzie Lane (Hardcover): Lizzie Lane Marriage and Mayhem for the Tobacco Girls - The BRAND NEW page-turning historical saga from Lizzie Lane (Hardcover)
Lizzie Lane
R614 Discovery Miles 6 140 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Discover the brand new instalment in Lizzie Lane's bestselling Tobacco Girls series! War is fleeting, but true love last forever...May 1944 Hope and excitement is in the air when news breaks of the allied forces landing in Normandy. D Day has arrived. However, the day-to-day struggles for the Tobacco Girls continue. Carole Thomas wants her old life back. She is burdened with the guilt of being a young single mother and considers having baby Paula adopted, but Maisie Miles will do anything to stop her. Phyllis Mason having found the love of her life is getting married in Malta to Mick Fairbrother, but will the dangerous legacies of war plague her happy day? Bridget O'Neill finds herself posted to one of the hospitals receiving the injured from the D-Day landing beaches. Her most fervent hope is that her husband, Lyndon, does not become one of them. Peace is on the horizon, but will their wishes and dreams win through and bring them a happy ever after? Praise for Lizzie Lane: 'A gripping saga and a storyline that will keep you hooked' Rosie Goodwin 'The Tobacco Girls is another heartwarming tale of love and friendship and a must-read for all saga fans.' Jean Fullerton 'Lizzie Lane opens the door to a past of factory girls, redolent with life-affirming friendship, drama, and choices that are as relevant today as they were then.' Catrin Collier 'If you want an exciting, authentic historical saga then look no further than Lizzie Lane.' Fenella J Miller

Evading and Escaping Capture - Urban Escape and Evasion Techniques for Civilians (Hardcover): Sam Fury Evading and Escaping Capture - Urban Escape and Evasion Techniques for Civilians (Hardcover)
Sam Fury; Illustrated by Neil Germio
R888 Discovery Miles 8 880 Ships in 10 - 15 working days
Pegasus - The Secret Technology That Threatens The End Of Privacy And Democracy (Paperback): Laurent Richard, Sandrine Rigaud Pegasus - The Secret Technology That Threatens The End Of Privacy And Democracy (Paperback)
Laurent Richard, Sandrine Rigaud
R299 R234 Discovery Miles 2 340 Save R65 (22%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The gripping, behind-the scenes story of one of the most sophisticated surveillance weapons ever created – and an existential threat to democracy and human rights.

Pegasus is widely regarded as the most powerful cyber-surveillance system on the market – available to any government that can afford its multimillion-dollar price tag. The system’s creator, the NSO group, a private corporation headquartered in Israel, boasts about its ability to thwart terrorists and criminals.

But the Pegasus system doesn’t only catch terrorists and criminals.

Pegasus has been used by repressive regimes to spy on thousands of innocent people around the world: heads of state, diplomats, human rights defenders, lawyers, political opponents, and journalists.

Virtually undetectable, the system can track a person’s daily movement in real time, gain control of the device’s microphones and cameras at will, and capture all videos, photos, emails, texts, and passwords – encrypted or not. Its full reach is not even known.

This is the gripping story of how Pegasus was uncovered, written by Laurent Richard and Sandrine Rigaud, the two intrepid reporters who revealed the scandal in collaboration with an international consortium of journalists. Their findings shook the world.

Tense and compelling, Pegasus reveals how thousands of lives have been turned upside down by this unprecedented threat, and exposes the chilling new ways governments and corporations are laying waste to human rights – and silencing innocent citizens.

Political Decision-Making and Security Intelligence: Recent Techniques and Technological Developments (Hardcover): Luisa... Political Decision-Making and Security Intelligence: Recent Techniques and Technological Developments (Hardcover)
Luisa Dall'acqua, Irene M. Gironacci
R5,578 Discovery Miles 55 780 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

The enormous spread of devices gives access to virtual networks and to cyberspace areas where continuous flows of data and information are exchanged, increasing the risk of information warfare, cyber-espionage, cybercrime, and identity hacking. The number of individuals and companies that suffer data breaches has increased vertically with serious reputational and economic damage internationally. Thus, the protection of personal data and intellectual property has become a priority for many governments. Political Decision-Making and Security Intelligence: Recent Techniques and Technological Developments is an essential scholarly publication that aims to explore perspectives and approaches to intelligence analysis and performance and combines theoretical underpinnings with practical relevance in order to sensitize insights into training activities to manage uncertainty and risks in the decision-making process. Featuring a range of topics such as crisis management, policy making, and risk analysis, this book is ideal for managers, analysts, politicians, IT specialists, data scientists, policymakers, government officials, researchers, academicians, professionals, and security experts.

The First Code Talkers - Native American Communicators in World War I (Hardcover): William C Meadows The First Code Talkers - Native American Communicators in World War I (Hardcover)
William C Meadows
R1,085 Discovery Miles 10 850 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Many Americans know something about the Navajo code talkers in World War II - but little else about the military service of Native Americans, who have served in our armed forces since the American Revolution, and still serve in larger numbers than any other ethnic group. But, as we learn in this splendid work of historical restitution, code talking originated in World War I among Native soldiers whose extraordinary service resulted, at long last, in U.S. citizenship for all Native Americans. The first full account of these forgotten soldiers in our nation's military history, The First Code Talkers covers all known Native American code talkers of World War I - members of the Choctaw, Oklahoma Cherokee, Comanche, Osage, and Sioux nations, as well as the Eastern Band of Cherokee and Ho-Chunk, whose veterans have yet to receive congressional recognition. William C. Meadows, the foremost expert on the subject, describes how Native languages, which were essentially unknown outside tribal contexts and thus could be as effective as formal encrypted codes, came to be used for wartime communication. While more than thirty tribal groups were eventually involved in World Wars I and II, this volume focuses on Native Americans in the American Expeditionary Forces during the First World War. Drawing on nearly thirty years of research - in U.S. military and Native American archives, surviving accounts from code talkers and their commanding officers, family records, newspaper accounts, and fieldwork in descendant communities - the author explores the origins, use, and legacy of the code talkers. In the process, he highlights such noted decorated veterans as Otis Leader, Joseph Oklahombi, and Calvin Atchavit and scrutinizes numerous misconceptions and popular myths about code talking and the secrecy surrounding the practice. With appendixes that include a timeline of pertinent events, biographies of known code talkers, and related World War I data, this book is the first comprehensive work ever published on Native American code talkers in the Great War and their critical place in American military history.

Open Source Intelligence in a Networked World (Hardcover, New): Anthony Olcott Open Source Intelligence in a Networked World (Hardcover, New)
Anthony Olcott
R3,950 Discovery Miles 39 500 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The amount of publicly and often freely available information is staggering. Yet, the intelligence community still continues to collect and use information in the same manner as during WWII, when the OSS set out to learn as much as possible about Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan by scrutinizing encyclopedias, guide books, and short-wave radio. Today, the supply of information is greater than any possible demand, and anyone can provide information. In effect, intelligence analysts are drowning in information.
The book explains how to navigate this rising flood and make best use of these new, rich sources of information. Written by a pioneer in the field, it explores the potential uses of digitized data and the impact of the new means of creating and transmitting data, recommending to the intelligence community new ways of collecting and processing information.
This comprehensive overview of the world of open source intelligence will appeal not only to practitioners and students of intelligence, but also to anyone interested in communication and the challenges posed by the information age.

Female Intelligence - Women and Espionage in the First World War (Hardcover): Tammy M Proctor Female Intelligence - Women and Espionage in the First World War (Hardcover)
Tammy M Proctor
R2,522 Discovery Miles 25 220 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

When the Germans invaded her small Belgian village in 1914, Marthe Cnockaert's home was burned and her family separated. After getting a job at a German hospital, and winning the Iron Cross for her service to the Reich, she was approached by a neighbor and invited to become an intelligence agent for the British. Not without trepidation, Cnockaert embarked on a career as a spy, providing information and engaging in sabotage before her capture and imprisonment in 1916. After the war, she was paid and decorated by a grateful British government for her service. Cnockaert's is only one of the surprising and gripping stories that comprise Female Intelligence. This is the first history of the female spies who served Britain during World War I, focusing on both the powerful cultural images of these women and the realities, challenges, and contradictions of intelligence service. Between the founding of modern British intelligence organizations in 1909 and the demobilization of 1919, more than 6,000 women served the British government in either civil or military occupations as members of the intelligence community. These women performed a variety of services, and they represented an astonishing diversity of nationality, age, and class. From Aphra Behn, who spied for the British government in the seventeenth century, to the most well known example, Mata Hari, female spies have a long history, existing in juxtaposition to the folkloric notion of women as chatty, gossipy, and indiscreet. Using personal accounts, letters, official documents and newspaper reports, Female Intelligence interrogates different, and apparently contradictory, constructions of gender in the competing spheres of espionage activity.

The Central Intelligence Agency - Security under Scrutiny (Hardcover, Annotated Ed): Athan G. Theoharis, Richard H. Immerman,... The Central Intelligence Agency - Security under Scrutiny (Hardcover, Annotated Ed)
Athan G. Theoharis, Richard H. Immerman, Kathryn Olmsted, John Prados
R2,804 Discovery Miles 28 040 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Created in 1947, the Central Intelligence Agency plays an important part in the nation's intelligence activities, and is currently playing a vital role in the "war on terrorism." While the agency is often in the news and portrayed in television shows and films, it remains one of the most secretive and misunderstood organizations in the United States. This work provides an in-depth look into the Central Intelligence Agency and how its responsibilities affect American life. After a brief history of the agency, chapters describe its organization, intelligence/counterintelligence, covert operations, controversies, key events, and notable people.

Secret Soldiers of the Revolution - Soviet Military Intelligence, 1918-1933 (Hardcover, New): Raymond W. Leonard Secret Soldiers of the Revolution - Soviet Military Intelligence, 1918-1933 (Hardcover, New)
Raymond W. Leonard
R2,699 Discovery Miles 26 990 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

Leonard provides the first comprehensive history of the Red Army's Intelligence Directorate, known today as the GRU, from its inception during the Russian Civil War up to the rise of Nazi Germany in 1933. During these early years of Soviet Army intelligence, the GRU actively promoted Communism internationally through insurrection and partisan warfare. It became deeply involved in espionage in Western Europe, the United States, and Asia. Making extensive use of primary sources, many of which have only recently become available, Leonard completes a story that has until now been often inaccurate or simply confused.

The Hidden History of Bletchley Park - A Social and Organisational History, 1939-1945 (Hardcover, 1st ed. 2015): C Smith The Hidden History of Bletchley Park - A Social and Organisational History, 1939-1945 (Hardcover, 1st ed. 2015)
C Smith
R2,006 R1,816 Discovery Miles 18 160 Save R190 (9%) Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This book is a 'hidden' history of Bletchley Park during the Second World War, which explores the agency from a social and gendered perspective. It examines themes such as: the experience of wartime staff members; the town in which the agency was situated; and the cultural influences on the wartime evolution of the agency.

BEHIND THE BATTLE - Intelligence in the war with Germany, 1939-45 (Paperback): Ralph Bennett BEHIND THE BATTLE - Intelligence in the war with Germany, 1939-45 (Paperback)
Ralph Bennett
R393 R357 Discovery Miles 3 570 Save R36 (9%) Ships in 9 - 15 working days

Many studies have covered aspects of military intelligence available to Britain and her allies during the Second World War. This distinguished book provides a succinct and authoritative survey of the vital role Ultra played in achieving final victory., When war began Britain was as ill-prepared in intelligence as armaments. Civilian scientists had discovered the principle of radar in the mid-1930s, but everything had to be learned from scratch in the heat of emergency. First signs of improvement came in mid-1941, when Ultra targeted naval vessels and bomber aircraft onto so many of Rommel's supply ships that the Africa Corps almost withered on the vine. From then on intelligence played an increasingly indispensable part in final victory. Ultra won the Battle of the Atlantic, driving U-boats back to coastal waters by June 1943. Ultra confirmed the whereabouts of the German tanks as Montgomery planned the breakthrough to Alamein. Only 'Bomber' Harris refused to give intelligence the credit it deserved; on the basis of new evidence this fascinating book strongly reinforces criticism this costly mistake.

Nazi Secret Warfare in Occupied Persia (Iran) - The Failure of the German Intelligence Services, 1939-45 (Hardcover): Adrian... Nazi Secret Warfare in Occupied Persia (Iran) - The Failure of the German Intelligence Services, 1939-45 (Hardcover)
Adrian O'Sullivan
R3,960 Discovery Miles 39 600 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This is the first full-length work to be published about the spectacular failure of the German intelligence services in Persia (Iran) during WWII. Based on archival research it analyzes a compelling history of Nazi planning, operations, personalities, and intrigues, and follows the protagonists from Hitler's rise to power into the postwar era.

Intelligence Communication in the Digital Era: Transforming Security, Defence and Business (Hardcover): R. Arcos, R. Pherson Intelligence Communication in the Digital Era: Transforming Security, Defence and Business (Hardcover)
R. Arcos, R. Pherson
R3,785 Discovery Miles 37 850 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

This edited volume argues that producers of analysis need to shift from producing static, narrative products to much more dynamic, digitally-based platforms in order to remain competitive and relevant.

Selling AWACS to Saudi Arabia - The Reagan Administration and the Balancing of America's Competing Interests in the Middle... Selling AWACS to Saudi Arabia - The Reagan Administration and the Balancing of America's Competing Interests in the Middle East (Hardcover)
Nicholas Laham
R2,707 Discovery Miles 27 070 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

The AWACS debate represents one of the most critical and controversial events in the history of American diplomacy and legislative politics. It locked the Reagan administration and opponents of the AWACS sale in a fierce and pitched battle over American policy in the most economically and strategically vital region in the world: the Middle East.

Accordingly, Laham finds there are at least five political lessons to be drawn from the debate. First, contrary to the arguments of its critics in Congress, the pro-Israel lobby does not control American policy in the Middle East. Second, the Senate tends to defer to the authority of the president on matters of foreign policy and national security. Third, while remaining a passive president overall, Reagan was among the most active of chief executives on issues involving the economy and national security. Fourth, given the enormous contribution the AWACS sale made to the vital economic and national security interests of the United States, Reagan's masterful handling of this politically explosive issue provides evidence that he displayed attributes of presidential greatness, but much further study of the other major foreign and domestic policy issues Reagan confronted during his tenure in office will be required before any definitve judgment can be rendered concerning where he stands in the ranking of America's 42 presidents. Fifth, the AWACS debate shows that the United States need not sacrifice its special relationship with Israel in order to forge stronger ties with Saudi Arabia. This analysis will be of particular interest to scholars, students, and policy makers involved with national security issues, presidential politics, interest groups, and Middle East studies.

"Soft" Counterinsurgency: Human Terrain Teams and US Military Strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan (Hardcover): Paul Joseph "Soft" Counterinsurgency: Human Terrain Teams and US Military Strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan (Hardcover)
Paul Joseph
R1,440 Discovery Miles 14 400 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

'Soft' Counterinsurgency reviews the promise and actual achievement of Human Terrain Teams, the small groups of social scientists that were eventually embedded in every combat brigade in Iraq and Afghanistan. The book, based on interviews with both HTT personnel and their military commanders, examines the military's need for sociocultural information, the ethical issues surrounding research carried out in combat zones, and the tensions between military and social science organizational cultures. The account provides a close, detailed account of HTT activities, a critical reflection on the possibilities of creating a 'softer, ' less violent counterinsurgency, and the difficulty of attempting to make war more 'intelligent' and discriminating.

The Tiger Tank and Allied Intelligence - Grosstraktor to Tiger 231, 1926-1943 (Hardcover): Bruce Oliver Newsome The Tiger Tank and Allied Intelligence - Grosstraktor to Tiger 231, 1926-1943 (Hardcover)
Bruce Oliver Newsome
R1,086 Discovery Miles 10 860 Ships in 10 - 15 working days
Handbook of Warning Intelligence - Assessing the Threat to National Security (Paperback, abridged edition): Cynthia Grabo Handbook of Warning Intelligence - Assessing the Threat to National Security (Paperback, abridged edition)
Cynthia Grabo; Foreword by Jan Goldman
R1,651 Discovery Miles 16 510 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

Handbook of Warning Intelligence: Assessing the Threat to National Security was written during the cold war and was classified for 40 years. The majority of this manual, however, is now finally available to the general public. An abridged version, Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, was published, but this original document goes into much greater detail about the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting. It discusses military analysis, as well as the difficulties in understanding political, civil, and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment." Much of what Grabo writes in her book seems to appear in many of the numerous commission reports that emerged after the 9/11 attacks. However, this book was written in response to the "surprise attack" of the Soviet Union's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. According to the author, that event was no surprise. And while analysts have to take some of the blame for their failure to strenuously present their case that the threat was real and imminent, what occurred was a failure by policymakers to listen to the warning intelligence reports that were written at the time.

Macmillan, Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis - Political, Military and Intelligence Aspects (Hardcover): L. Scott Macmillan, Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis - Political, Military and Intelligence Aspects (Hardcover)
L. Scott
R2,796 Discovery Miles 27 960 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

In October 1962, the world went to the brink of Armageddon. This study provides an archive based account of the Cuban missile crisis, providing the first detailed and authoritative account from the British perspective. The book draws upon British and US archival material and scholarship in the west and the former USSR. The diplomatic, military and intelligence dimensions of British policy are scrutinized. Material is presented and existing interpretations of UK US relations at this crucial moment are reassessed. The book contributes a fresh aspect to the literature on the Cuban missile crisis, by exploring where the views of Washington and its closest ally converged and diverged.

Keeping Us Safe - Secret Intelligence and Homeland Security (Hardcover, New): Arthur S. Hulnick Keeping Us Safe - Secret Intelligence and Homeland Security (Hardcover, New)
Arthur S. Hulnick
R1,576 Discovery Miles 15 760 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

How can the United States guard against a clever unknown enemy while still preserving the freedoms it holds dear? Hulnick explains the need to revamp U.S. intelligence operations from a system focused on a single Cold War enemy to one offering more flexibility in combating non-state actors (including terrorists, spies, and criminals) like those responsible for the attacks of September 11, 2001. Offering possible solutions not to be found in the federal commission's official report, Hulnick's groundbreaking work examines what is really necessary to make intelligence and homeland security more efficient and competent, both at within the United States and abroad. The U.S. government's progress in establishing a system for homeland security is considerable, yet, besides shifts in alert status, most U.S. residents are unaware of the work being done to keep them safe. Describing the system already in place, Hulnick adds further ideas about what more is needed to protect Americans in the ever-changing world of intelligence. To create a truly valuable program, it is suggested the the United States consider not only new strategies and tactics, but also the need to break down the barriers between intelligence agencies and law enforcement.

Understanding the Globalization of Intelligence (Hardcover): A. Svendsen Understanding the Globalization of Intelligence (Hardcover)
A. Svendsen
R1,471 Discovery Miles 14 710 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

In this concise introduction to the complexities of contemporary western intelligence and its dynamics during an era of globalization, Adam Svendsen discusses intelligence cooperation in the early 21st century, with a sharp focus on counter-terrorism and WMD counter-proliferation during the 'War on Terror.'

Righteous Deception - German Officers Against Hitler (Hardcover, New): David A. Johnson Righteous Deception - German Officers Against Hitler (Hardcover, New)
David A. Johnson
R1,633 Discovery Miles 16 330 Ships in 10 - 15 working days

In the spring of 1944, Adolf Hitler firmly believed that the Allies would invade the Continent by landing troops on the beaches of Normandy, but anti-Nazi officers in German Intelligence ultimately persuaded him that Normandy would be a mere diversion. The "real" invasion, Hitler was assured, would be at Calais. "Righteous Deception" focuses on the activities of two officers whose consciences kept them from siding with Hitler and the Nazis. Their campaign of misinformation and deception convinced Hitler to keep half of the German forces in northern France to defend against an invasion that would never come. This decision ultimately cost Hitler the war.

Admiral Wilhelm Canaris, head of German Military Intelligence, turned against Hitler within a year after he had come to power. Canaris and his circle of friends in an opposition movement known as the "Schwarze Kapelle" (Black Orchestra) did everything possible to prevent Hitler from winning the war, which believed would be a catastrophe. Colonel Alexis von Roenne headed the "Fremde Heere West," the branch of Intelligence responsible for evaluating the strength of Allied forces. In a key position to alter findings and other information pertaining to Allied forces in Britain, he doubled the estimated number of troops assembling for D-Day, giving the impression that the Allies had enough men and equipment in Britain for both an invasion in Calais and a diversion in Normandy.

The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) - A Method for Predictive Intelligence Analysis (Hardcover, New): Jonathan... The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) - A Method for Predictive Intelligence Analysis (Hardcover, New)
Jonathan S. Lockwood
R4,595 Discovery Miles 45 950 Ships in 12 - 17 working days

The Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction (LAMP) is a systematic technique for predicting short-term, unique behaviors. Using primarily qualitative empirical data, LAMP allows the analyst to predict the most likely outcomes for specific research questions across a wide range of intelligence problems, such as cyber threats in the U.S., the possibility of an Al Qaeda attack, the likelihood of Iran providing nuclear capability to terrorist groups, or the future actions of the Mexican drug cartel. LAMP offers an innovative and powerful method for organizing all available information based on the perceptions of the national actors, using it to make relevant predictions as to which alternate future is most likely to occur at a given moment in time. Its transparent structure enables anyone to see how an analyst gets from point A to point B to produce an intelligence estimate. LAMP differs from other analytical techniques in that it is based on determining the relative probability of a range of alternate futures, rather than attempting to determine the quantitative probability of their occurrence. After explaining its theoretical framework, the text leads the reader through the process of predictive analysis before providing practical case studies showing how LAMP is applied against real world problems, such as the possible responses of Israel, the U.S., and Lebanon to the behavior of Hezbollah or the competing visions of the future of Afghanistan. Evaluation of the method is provided with the case studies to show the effectiveness of the LAMP predictions over time. The book is complemented by a website with downloadable software for use by students of intelligence in conducting their own predictive analysis. It will be an essential tool for the analyst and the student, not only for national security issues but also for competitive intelligence.

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