As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book,
volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia
confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen
much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that
charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their
impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not
reassuringly thin but dangerously fat.
Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects
of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to
both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms
face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by
two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it
reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for
businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is
unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most
people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and
Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from
stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically
driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more
precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and
Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics
sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of
political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries,
terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak
leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy
prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of
unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money
managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when
and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not.
"The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political
risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to
use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and
useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh
answers to questions they may not yet know they have."
--Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World
"Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail
provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established
and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with
multinational interests."
--Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc.
"Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international
business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically
stable."
--Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist
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