In recent years, investors have learned the hard truth that in the
international economy, politics often matters at least as much as
economic fundamentals for the performance of global markets. Too
many companies and investors haven't yet learned to read the
warning signs: their expertise lies much more in economics than
politics, and the temptation is to hope that highly volatile
situations such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation will be
few and far between. But as Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat
demonstrate, these scenarios--and their catastrophic effects on
business--happen much more frequently than we imagine. On the curve
that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of
their impact, the 'tail' of extreme political instability is not
reassuringly thin but dangerously fat.
This groundbreaking book is the first to both identify the wide
range of political risks that global firms face and show investors
how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's
leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while
the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no
means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is
easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the
lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of
contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United
States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still
dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran,
China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property
is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The
book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that
stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government
takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and
even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly,
the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts
to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand
political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis
works--and when it does not.
Authored by Ian Bremmer (author of the bestselling The J-Curve)
and Preston Keat, the president and research director
(respectively) of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk
consultancy firm, The Fat Tail is an indispensable guide for anyone
involved in the international economy.
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