More than half a century after the advent of the nuclear age, is
the world approaching a tipping point that will unleash an epidemic
of nuclear proliferation? Today many of the building blocks of a
nuclear arsenal -scientific and engineering expertise, precision
machine tools, software, design information -are more readily
available than ever before. The nuclear pretensions of so-called
rogue states and terrorist organizations are much discussed. But
how firm is the resolve of those countries that historically have
chosen to forswear nuclear weapons? A combination of changes in the
international environment could set off a domino effect, with
countries scrambling to develop nuclear weapons so as not to be
left behind -or to develop nuclear "hedge" capacities that would
allow them to build nuclear arsenals relatively quickly, if
necessary. The Nuclear Tipping Point examines the factors, both
domestic and transnational, that shape nuclear policy. The authors,
distinguished scholars and foreign policy practitioners with
extensive government experience, develop a framework for
understanding why certain countries may originally have decided to
renounce nuclear weapons -and pinpoint some more recent
country-specific factors that could give them cause to reconsider.
Case studies of eight long-term stalwarts of the nonproliferation
regime -Egypt, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Syria,
Turkey, and Taiwan -flesh out this framework and show how even
these countries might be pushed over the edge of a nuclear tipping
point. The authors offer prescriptions that would both prevent such
countries from reconsidering their nuclear option and avert
proliferation by others. The stakes are enormous and success is far
from assured. To keep the tipping point beyond reach, the authors
argue, the international community will have to act with unity,
imagination, and strength, and Washington's leadership will be
essential. Contributors include Leon Feurth, George Washington
University; Ellen Laipson, Stimson Center; Thomas W. Lippman,
Middle East Institute; Jenifer Mackby, Center for Strategic and
International Studies; Derek J. Mitchell, Center for Strategic and
International Studies; Jonathan D. Pollack, U.S. Naval War College;
Walter B. Slocombe, Caplin and Drysdale; and Tsuyoshi Sunohara,
Center for Strategic and International Studies.
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