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In Pursuit of Foresight - Disaster Incubation Theory Re-imagined (Paperback)
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In Pursuit of Foresight - Disaster Incubation Theory Re-imagined (Paperback)
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Many inquiry reports blame management for their failures of
foresight. These reports are based on the premise that, with a
little more thought, these oversights, and so the crisis, would
have been avoided. Is it really that simple? The important question
is whether, without hindsight, it would have even been possible to
identify the actual factors that lead to the failure. This book
explores this issue as a practical problem. The book takes Barry
Turner's Disaster Incubation Theory as its central theme. The first
chapter explores the way Turner structured his theory and the way
it has been used, before re-imagining it as a way to fostering
foresight. The next three chapters examine key issues in detail.
They explain why Turner's model was chosen, outline the issues that
need to be considered when seeking to prevent such failures and how
to use the proposed frameworks. Chapter 5 examines the lessons
learnt from this study and, in particular, looks at the mental
approach required when seeking such foresight. Finally, Chapter 6
provides a fully worked example. It uses work by Frank Stech who
has applied Turner's theory to a past case. Crises occur everywhere
and we continue to struggle to avoid them. In this book Mike Lauder
provides executives with thinking tools to help them avoid missing
the warning signs of their next crisis.
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