In this volume, which was originally published in 1982, Paul
Horwich presents a clear and unified approach to a number of
problems in the philosophy of science. He diagnoses the failure of
other attempts to resolve them as stemming from a too-rigid,
all-or-nothing conception of belief, and adopts instead a Bayesian
strategy, emphasising the degree of confidence to which we are
entitled the light of scientific evidence. This probabilistic
approach, he argues, yields a more complete understanding of the
assumptions and procedures characteristic of scientific reasoning.
It also accounts for the merits of simplicity, severe tests and
surprising predictions, and provides a way in which the dispute
between the realist and instrumentalist views of science might be
resolved. The result is a crisp, well-focused contribution to the
philosophy of science. The elaboration of an important conception
of probability will stimulate anyone with an interest in the field.
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