The research presented in this work qualitatively investigates the
morphodynamic response of a large tidal inlet/basin system to
future relative sea level rise (RSLR) using the state-of-the-art
Delft3D numerical model. Understanding the potential impacts of
RSLR on these systems is a prerequisite for their sustainable
management due to their rich bio-diversity and the increase in
economic activities and local communities in recent decades. The
adopted approach used a highly schematised model domain analogous
to the Ameland inlet in the Dutch Wadden Sea. Model simulations
were undertaken applying tidal and wave boundary forcings with
three IPCC projected RSLR scenarios (no RSLR, low RSLR and high
RSLR). Predicted inlet evolution indicated a channel/shoal pattern
typically observed at the Ameland inlet. RSLR enhances the existing
flood-dominance of the system leading to erosion on the ebb-tidal
delta and accretion in the basin. Under the no RSLR case, resulting
bed evolution of the process-based model (Delft3D) tends to agree
with empirical-equilibrium relations of the ASMITA model.
Application of the low RSLR scenario resulted in quite stable tidal
flat evolution. Model simulations with the high RSLR scenario
indicated disappearing the tidal flats over time and turning the
system into a lagoon. Applying nourishment hardly compensated the
RSLR induced sediment demand of tidal flat evolution.
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