Computer programs that simulate complex processes in the real world can provide a quantitative tool for determining how much debt can be added safely to a company's capital structure. The increasing number of bankruptcies and defaults in today's international business arena result from debt overload and point to major shortcomings in the conventional financial evaluation process. In this book, Roy L. Nersesian describes why current methods of risk management fail and how computer simulation can be employed to determine the safe level of debt more accurately. Because the decision to add debt to an organization requires favorable, and essentially independent, decisions from both the borrower and lender, it is necessary to quantify both perspectives. Through actual examples readers will learn how to do this and to translate an actual business situation into a simulation model or program.

Current evaluation systems, according to Nersesian, fail to incorporate the cyclical nature of business activity. They result all too often in an overly optimistic projection of cash flow. Simulation techniques are better able to incorporate the transience of good times and put quantitative analysis of risk on par with quantitative analysis of reward. Simulation techniques also reduce the role of speculative, and highly subjective, judgment. For example, decisionmakers who are not familiar personally with a particular business area, assign more risk to that area than those who are. A quantified risk management system enables executives to rank projects by the degree of risk much as they currently rank them by degree of profitability. The book presents the concept of simulation in terms that can be understood by generalists in corporations and financial institutions. At the same time, it provides computer programmers with an understanding of risk management principles. It will provide a valuable resource for: financial executives, planners and strategists in corporate and governmental organizations; bank lending officers; and computer programmers working with these organizations.

In the global marketplace, the companies that can draw on worldwide operations to meet commercial challenges accrue a competitive advantage. Those who remain homebound will not sustain the competitive onslaught of globally oriented firms. Companies from all nations are entering into mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures, and strategic alliances in the race for survival. This book encompasses, in a single volume, a broad description of the global aspects of management, human resource management, marketing, accounting, and finance. It is tailored to be a practical guide for managers in order to broaden their background in global operations and to enhance their appreciation for such operations for the benefit of their companies and their careers.

Managers, executives, and students of international business will find this practical guide a one-stop resource for understanding the practice of doing business on a global scale.

Roy L. Nersesian challenges traditional forecasting methods that rely strictly on econometric models, arguing that they ignore a fundamental aspect of the business cycle--human emotional responses to economic stimuli. Nersesian advocates instead the development of forecasting models that incorporate human behavior into the process, and he provides a tool--computer simulation--which can be used for this purpose. As Nersesian demonstrates, such consumer attitudes as confidence in the future, fear of depression, even passing fads can have a profound effect on business activity and are often far more predictive of the future than are the thousands of mathematical equations used to develop a forecast built upon econometrics. By using simulation to factor potential consumer responses into the forecasting process, Nersesian is able to tie forecasting to the consequences of human behavior and thereby determine the way in which attitudes play a role in affecting the future course of business.

Nersesian's study is organized around a series of questions about the business cycle: If economic activity is influenced by the nature of decisions, and if decisions are based partly on human responses to such things as prices and costs, and partly on human emotions, shouldn't the forecasting process itself incorporate human behavior? If human behavior in turn is influenced by factors such as price, cost, and inventory, and the general level of confidence in the future, should these not be incorporated in the forecasting process? In order to address these questions, Nersesian creates a simple island society and demonstrates how to use simulation to assess the effects of elements that might cause a change of consumer sentiment during the forecast period. As Nersesian concludes, a change of consumer sentiment at any time during the forecast period can have significant implications for the accuracy or usefulness of a forecast used in the corporate planning process. Both students of forecasting and corporate planners will find Nersesian's work illuminating reading.

All too often, books on accounting are written for accountants. In this unique book, accounting is used as a means, not as an end unto itself. Heely and Nersesian have written a guide for managers of multinational companies who wish to better understand the complex workings of a global business.

The book describes the globalization of business, the increasing complexity and related accounting treatments of doing business internationally. Recent developments in the standardization and harmonization of accounting practices around the world are discussed, accompanied by numerous examples from annual reports of both foreign and domestic companies. The process by which a parent company consolidates its results from foreign affiliates is described, along with the accounting which would accompany typical business transactions. Emphasis is placed on the connection between transfer pricing and taxation, including a discussion of the considerations which management must face when setting transfer prices. Accounting practices for inflation, along with currency exchange fluctuations, are dealt with from both accounting and risk management perspectives.

Operations management is a set of disciplines that transform raw materials, labor and capital into finished goods and services. These various disciplines are discussed for an intended audience of executives and operations managers who desire to be updated on the current curriculum in business schools. The book emphasizes why Japan has ascended to its dominant position in global commerce largely at the expense of U.S. manufacturers. The intent is to learn lessons from Japanese achievements that can be applied to make U.S. manufacturers more competitive in the global market. Trends in operations management are augmented with new software tools (Evolver and RISKOptimizer) which can solve previously unsolvable problems in scheduling and other operational matters.

Additional material provides a fuller discussion on certain key managerial issues and problem solving. This readable and informative book examines the various disciplines that managers must integrate into their jobs and key workplace practices that enhance a company's competitiveness in the global marketplace.

Here is a comprehensive guide to the incorporation of computer simulation in all levels of the planning function of an organization. Writing for managers of planning, planners, and programmers, the author enables readers to gain an overall understanding of the potential role of simulation in planning, to apply simulation to their own particular needs, and to translate planning concepts into computer instructions. Nersesian demonstrates that for manager, planner, and programmer alike, simulation is not difficult in concept nor complicated to put into practice. The author argues that simulation is a necessary activity in a planning environment characterized by uncertain futures and rapidly changing conditions.

The book is organized into separate chapters, each of which acts as a case study of an aspect in the use of simulation. The synopsis that begins every chapter provides the manager of a planning operation with an appreciation of the general application of simulation to one facet of planning. The chapters themselves focus on particular situations which might befall a planner within the general application of simulation to the planning process. Special appendices--designed to aid programmers who have not had much previous experience in setting up simulation programs--follow each chapter and provide descriptive material and the applicable simulation program. As a comprehensive yet easily understood guide to the benefits of utilizing simulation in the planning process, this book will be an invaluable resource for planners, corporate executives, and programmers.

A unique, practical guide to the power of simulation in the art of logistics management. Authors show better ways to manage complex logistics systems than seat of the pants decision making, and argue that information systems people must provide management with simulations that are timely and easily understood. In doing so, Nersesian and Swartz demonstrate the inadequacy of conventional quantitative methods in dealing with complex logistical systems, and show how simulation can address various logistics management issues. Important reading for logistics managers and computer staffs and for educators seeking better ways to make logistical decisions.

A compendium of current knowledge about conventional and alternative sources of energy. It clarifies complex technical issues, enlivens history, and illuminates the policy dilemmas we face today. This revised edition includes new material on biofuels, an expanded section on sustainability and sustainable energy, and updated figures and tables throughout. There are also online instructor materials for those professors who adopt the book for classroom use.

A compendium of current knowledge about conventional and alternative sources of energy. It clarifies complex technical issues, enlivens history, and illuminates the policy dilemmas we face today. This revised edition includes new material on biofuels, an expanded section on sustainability and sustainable energy, and updated figures and tables throughout. There are also online instructor materials for those professors who adopt the book for classroom use.