From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities presents and unusual perspective on economics and economic analysis. Current economic theory largely depends upon assuming that the world is fundamentally continuous. However, an increasing amount of economic research has been done using approaches that allow for discontinuities such as catastrophe theory, chaos theory, synergetics, and fractal geometry. The spread of such approaches across a variety of disciplines of thought has constituted a virtual intellectual revolution in recent years. This book reviews the applications of these approaches in various subdisciplines of economics and draws upon past economic thinkers to develop an integrated view of economics as a whole from the perspective of inherent discontinuity.

1 DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was initially developed as a method for assessing the comparative efficiencies of organisational units such as the branches of a bank, schools, hospital departments or restaurants. The key in each case is that they perform feature which makes the units comparable the same function in terms of the kinds of resource they use and the types of output they produce. For example all bank branches to be compared would typically use staff and capital assets to effect income generating activities such as advancing loans, selling financial products and carrying out banking transactions on behalf of their clients. The efficiencies assessed in this context by DEA are intended to reflect the scope for resource conservation at the unit being assessed without detriment to its outputs, or alternatively, the scope for output augmentation without additional resources. The efficiencies assessed are comparative or relative because they reflect scope for resource conservation or output augmentation at one unit relative to other comparable benchmark units rather than in some absolute sense. We resort to relative rather than absolute efficiencies because in most practical contexts we lack sufficient information to derive the superior measures of absolute efficiency. DEA was initiated by Charnes Cooper and Rhodes in 1978 in their seminal paper Chames et al. (1978). The paper operationalised and extended by means of linear programming production economics concepts of empirical efficiency put forth some twenty years earlier by Farrell (1957).

Studies in Global Econometrics is a collection of essays on the use of cross-country data based on purchasing power parities. The two major applications are the development over time of per capital gross domestic products, (including that of their inequalities among countries and regions) and the fitting of cross-country demand equations for broad groups of consumer goods. The introductory chapter provides highlights of the author's work as relating to these developments. One of the main topics of the work is a system of demand equations for broad groups of consumer goods fitted by means of cross-country data. These data are from the International Comparison Program, which provides PPP-based figures for a number of years and countries. Similar data are used for the measurement of the dispersion of national per capita incomes between and within seven geographic regions.

This book provides an overview of three generations of spatial econometric models: models based on cross-sectional data, static models based on spatial panels and dynamic spatial panel data models. The book not only presents different model specifications and their corresponding estimators, but also critically discusses the purposes for which these models can be used and how their results should be interpreted.

Each chapter of Macroeconometrics is written by respected econometricians in order to provide useful information and perspectives for those who wish to apply econometrics in macroeconomics. The chapters are all written with clear methodological perspectives, making the virtues and limitations of particular econometric approaches accessible to a general readership familiar with applied macroeconomics. The real tensions in macroeconometrics are revealed by the critical comments from different econometricians, having an alternative perspective, which follow each chapter.

NOW WITH NEW PROLOGUE ABOUT DEMYSTIFYING CORONAVIRUS NUMBERS, DONALD TRUMP AND WHY STATISTICS MATTER MORE THAN EVER 'The Number Bias combines vivid storytelling with authoritative analysis to deliver a warning about the way numbers can lead us astray - if we let them.' TIM HARFORD Even if you don't consider yourself a numbers person, you are a numbers person. The time has come to put numbers in their place. Not high up on a pedestal, or out on the curb, but right where they belong: beside words. It is not an overstatement to say that numbers dictate the way we live our lives. They tell us how we're doing at school, how much we weigh, who might win an election and whether the economy is booming. But numbers aren't as objective as they may seem; behind every number is a story. Yet politicians, businesses and the media often forget this - or use it for their own gain. Sanne Blauw travels the world to unpick our relationship with numbers and demystify our misguided allegiance, from Florence Nightingale using statistics to petition for better conditions during the Crimean War to the manipulation of numbers by the American tobacco industry and the ambiguous figures peddled during the EU referendum. Taking us from the everyday numbers that govern our health and wellbeing to the statistics used to wield enormous power and influence, The Number Bias counsels us to think more wisely. 'A beautifully accessible exploration of how numbers shape our lives, and the importance of accurately interpreting the statistics we are fed.' ANGELA SAINI, author of Superior

Over the last decade or so, applied general equilibrium models have rapidly become a major tool for policy advice on issues regarding allocation and efficiency, most notably taxes and tariffs. This reflects the power of the general equilibrium approach to allocative questions and the capability of today's applied models to come up with realistic answers. However, it by no means implies that the theoretical, practical and empirical problems faced by researchers in applied modelling have all been solved in a satisfactory way. Rather, a promising field of research has been opened up, inviting theorists and practitioners to further explore and exploit its potential. The state of the art in applied general equilibrium modelling is reflected in this volume. The introductory Chapter (Part I) evaluates the use of economic modelling to address policy questions, and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of applied general equilibrium models. Three substantive issues are dealt with in Chapters 2-8: Tax Reform and Capital (Part II), Intertemporal Aspects and Expectations (Part III), and Taxes and the Labour Market (Part IV). While all parts contain results relevant for economic policy, it is clear that theory and applications for these areas are in different stages of development. We hope that this book will bring inspiration, insight and information to researchers, students and policy advisors.

This handbook covers DEA topics that are extensively used and solidly based. The purpose of the handbook is to (1) describe and elucidate the state of the field and (2), where appropriate, extend the frontier of DEA research. It defines the state-of-the-art of DEA methodology and its uses. This handbook is intended to represent a milestone in the progression of DEA. Written by experts, who are generally major contributors to the topics to be covered, it includes a comprehensive review and discussion of basic DEA models, which, in the present issue extensions to the basic DEA methods, and a collection of DEA applications in the areas of banking, engineering, health care, and services. The handbook's chapters are organized into two categories: (i) basic DEA models, concepts, and their extensions, and (ii) DEA applications. First edition contributors have returned to update their work.

The second edition includes updated versions of selected first edition chapters. New chapters have been added on: different approaches with no need for a priori choices of weights (called multipliers) that reflect meaningful trade-offs, construction of static and dynamic DEA technologies, slacks-based model and its extensions, DEA models for DMUs that have internal structures network DEA that can be used for measuring supply chain operations, Selection of DEA applications in the service sector with a focus on building a conceptual framework, research design and interpreting results.

"

Figure 1. 1. Map of Great Britain at two different scale levels. (a) Counties, (b)Regions. '-. " Figure 1. 2. Two alternative aggregations of the Italian provincie in 32 larger areas 4 CHAPTER 1 d . , b) Figure 1. 3 Percentage of votes of the Communist Party in the 1987 Italian political elections (a) and percentage of population over 75 years (b) in 1981 Italian Census in 32 polling districts. The polling districts with values above the average are shaded. Figure 1. 4: First order neighbours (a) and second order neighbours (b) of a reference area. INTRODUCTION 5 While there are several other problems relating to the analysis of areal data, the problem of estimating a spatial correlO!J'am merits special attention. The concept of the correlogram has been borrowed in the spatial literature from the time series analysis. Figure l. 4. a shows the first-order neighbours of a reference area, while Figure 1. 4. b displays the second-order neighbours of the same area. Higher-order neighbours can be defined in a similar fashion. While it is clear that the dependence is strongest between immediate neighbouring areas a certain degree of dependence may be present among higher-order neighbours. This has been shown to be an alternative way of look ing at the sca le problem (Cliff and Ord, 1981, p. l 23). However, unlike the case of a time series where each observation depends only on past observations, here dependence extends in all directions.

Observers and Macroeconomic Systems is concerned with the computational aspects of using a control-theoretic approach to the analysis of dynamic macroeconomic systems. The focus is on using a separate model for the development of the control policies. In particular, it uses the observer-based approach whereby the separate model learns to behave in a similar manner to the economic system through output-injections. The book shows how this approach can be used to learn the forward-looking behaviour of economic actors which is a distinguishing feature of dynamic macroeconomic models. It also shows how it can be used in conjunction with low-order models to undertake policy analysis with a large practical econometric model. This overcomes some of the computational problems arising from using just the large econometric models to compute optimal policy trajectories. The work also develops visual simulation software tools that can be used for policy analysis with dynamic macroeconomic systems.

Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data brings together a coherent and accessible set of chapters on recent research results on this topic. To make such methods readily useful in practice, the contributors to this volume have agreed to make available to readers upon request all computer programs used to implement the methods discussed in their respective chapters. Modelling and Forecasting Financial Data is a valuable resource for researchers and graduate students studying complex systems in finance, biology, and physics, as well as those applying such methods to nonlinear time series analysis and signal processing.

The modern system-wide approach to applied demand analysis emphasizes a unity between theory and applications. Its firm foundations in economic theory make it one of the most successful areas of applied econometrics. A System-Wide Analysis of International Consumption Patterns presents a large number of applications of recent innovations in the area and uses consumption data for 18 OECD countries to provide convincing evidence, one way or the other, about the validity of consumption theory. The empirical results presented in the book have a number of uses. Reliable estimates of income and price elasticities of demand are provided for 10 commodity groups in 18 countries. A feature of these results is that a number of major empirical regularities are identified that seem to hold across different periods and different countries. A System-Wide Analysis of International Consumption Patterns also presents an extensive application of recently developed Monte Carlo testing procedures - to test demand theory and the structure of preferences. The results so obtained are in stark contrast to most previous findings based on the conventional asymptotic tests. Other results presented in the book include: (i) Differences in economic variables (prices and and incomes in particular) account for observed differences in consumption patterns internationally, while differences in tastes seem to play a much smaller role. (ii) Own-price elasticities are approximately proportional to the corresponding income elasticities, a result coinciding with Pigou's law. (iii) The income elasticity of the marginal utility of income does not seem to depend on income, which contradicts the famous Frisch's conjecture.

How successful is PPP, and its extension in the monetary model, as a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate? What are the determinants and dynamics of equilibrium real exchange rates? How can misalignments be measured, and what are their causes? What are the effects of specific policies upon the equilibrium exchange rate? The answers to these questions are important to academic theorists, policymakers, international bankers and investment fund managers. This volume encompasses all of the competing views of equilibrium exchange rate determination, from PPP, through other reduced form models, to the macroeconomic balance approach. This volume is essentially empirical: what do we know about exchange rates? The different econometric and theoretical approaches taken by the various authors in this volume lead to mutually consistent conclusions. This consistency gives us confidence that significant progress has been made in understanding what are the fundamental determinants of exchange rates and what are the forces operating to bring them back in line with the fundamentals.

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Economic and Financial Data provides an examination of the flourishing interest that has developed in this area over the past decade. The constant theme throughout this work is that standard linear time series tools leave unexamined and unexploited economically significant features in frequently used data sets. The book comprises original contributions written by specialists in the field, and offers a combination of both applied and methodological papers. It will be useful to both seasoned veterans of nonlinear time series analysis and those searching for an informative panoramic look at front-line developments in the area.

Unlike uncertain dynamical systems in physical sciences where models for prediction are somewhat given to us by physical laws, uncertain dynamical systems in economics need statistical models. In this context, modeling and optimization surface as basic ingredients for fruitful applications. This volume concentrates on the current methodology of copulas and maximum entropy optimization. This volume contains main research presentations at the Sixth International Conference of the Thailand Econometrics Society held at the Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, Thailand, during January 10-11, 2013. It consists of keynote addresses, theoretical and applied contributions. These contributions to Econometrics are somewhat centered around the theme of Copulas and Maximum Entropy Econometrics. The method of copulas is applied to a variety of economic problems where multivariate model building and correlation analysis are needed. As for the art of choosing copulas in practical problems, the principle of maximum entropy surfaces as a potential way to do so. The state-of-the-art of Maximum Entropy Econometrics is presented in the first keynote address, while the second keynote address focusses on testing stationarity in economic time series data.

These three volumes contain an account of Professor Henri Theil's distinguished career as a leader, advisor, administrator, teacher, and researcher in economics and econometrics. The books also contain a selection of his contributions in many areas, such as econometrics, demand analysis, information theory, forecasting, statistics, economic policy analysis and management science. To date he has contributed over 250 articles in refereed journals and chapters in books, and 15 books, three of which became citation classics. His books and articles have appeared in (and have been translated into) many languages, such as Polish, Russian, Dutch, English, French, German, Hungarian, Italian and Japanese. This collection provides excellent reference material to researchers and graduate students working in a variety of disciplines, such as econometrics, economics, management science, operations research, and statistics. Moreover, Professor Theil's career serves as a role model for younger generations of scholars, both in terms of his approach to research and his commitment to his profession. Professor Theil's distinguished career as an academic began in 1953 when he was appointed Professor of Econometrics at the Netherlands School of Economics in Rotterdam (now Erasmus University). Three years later he founded the Econometric Institute in Rotterdam and served as its first director until 1966, when he accepted a joint appointment at the Graduate School of Business and Department of Economics, University of Chicago, U.S.A. In 1981, Theil was appointed to the McKethan-Matherly Eminent Chair at the Graduate School of Business Administration of the University of Florida in Gainesville. Theil has received many international honours including four honorary degrees.

Hospital Cost Analysis provides an overview of theoretical developments in the economic analysis of production and costs in the multiproduct firm, and discusses these developments. Following a lucid explanation of the concepts of jointness, input/output separability and returns to scale, a detailed discussion of the concept measurement and classification of hospital output is provided. A fundamental dilemma confronting economists interested in estimating hospital cost functions is highlighted, viz. the trade-off between flexibility in functional form and homogeneity within hospital output categories. Empirical results on the effects of case mix, scale and utilisation, public/private ownership, and the centralised administration of hospital systems on hospital costs are presented. The implications of hospital cost analysis for public policy with respect to hospital payment schemes, including schemes based on Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), are also considered. This book brings together the literature on hospital cost analysis with theoretical developments in the analysis of the multiproduct cost functions. It will be of considerable interest to teachers and students of health economics and health policy advisers interested in the determinants of hospital costs and the design of hospital payment schemes.

Quantitative Methods for Portfolio Analysis provides practical models and methods for the quantitative analysis of financial asset prices, construction of various portfolios, and computer-assisted trading systems. In particular, this book is required reading for: (1) `Quants' (quantitatively-inclined analysts) in financial industries; (2) financial engineers in investment banks, securities companies, derivative-trading companies, software houses, etc., who are developing portfolio trading systems; (3) graduate students and specialists in the areas of finance, business, economics, statistics, financial engineering; and (4) investors who are interested in Japanese financial markets. Throughout the book the emphasis is placed on the originality and usefulness of models and methods for the construction of portfolios and investment decision making, and examples are provided to demonstrate, with practical analysis, models for Japanese financial markets.

These three volumes contain an account of Professor Henri Theil's distinguished career as a leader, advisor, administrator, teacher, and researcher in economics and econometrics. The books also contain a selection of his contributions in many areas, such as econometrics, demand analysis, information theory, forecasting, statistics, economic policy analysis and management science. To date he has contributed over 250 articles in refereed journals and chapters in books, and 15 books, three of which became citation classics. His books and articles have appeared in (and have been translated into) many languages, such as Polish, Russian, Dutch, English, French, German, Hungarian, Italian and Japanese. This collection provides excellent reference material to researchers and graduate students working in a variety of disciplines, such as econometrics, economics, management science, operations research, and statistics. Moreover, Professor Theil's career serves as a role model for younger generations of scholars, both in terms of his approach to research and his commitment to his profession. Professor Theil's distinguished career as an academic began in 1953 when he was appointed Professor of Econometrics at the Netherlands School of Economics in Rotterdam (now Erasmus University). Three years later he founded the Econometric Institute in Rotterdam and served as its first director until 1966, when he accepted a joint appointment at the Graduate School of Business and Department of Economics, University of Chicago, U.S.A. In 1981, Theil was appointed to the McKethan-Matherly Eminent Chair at the Graduate School of Business Administration of the University of Florida in Gainesville. Theil has received many international honours including four honorary degrees.

Coordination is extremely important in economic, political, and social life. The concept of economic equilibrium is based on the coordination of producers and consumers in buying and selling. This book reviews the topic of coordination from an economic, theoretical standpoint. The aim of this volume is twofold: first, the book contributes to the ongoing research on the economics of coordination; and second, it disseminates results and encourages interest in the topic. The volume contains original research on coordination including general game-theoretic questions, particular coordination issues within specific fields of economics (i.e. industrial organization, international trade, and macroeconomics), and experimental research.

4 UNIVERSITY RESEARCH AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIONS AND PRIVATE RESEARCH . . . . . . . . 45 4. 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 4. 2. THE INNOVATION, PRIVATE RESEARCH AND UNIVERSITY RESEARCH DATA . . . . 46 4. 3. THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY INNOVATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 4. 4. THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY R&D ACTIVITIES . . . . . . . . . . . 55 4. 5. THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY UNIVERSITY RESEARCH AND ITS RELATION TO INNOVATIONS AND INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 4. 6. SUMMARy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 5 LOCAL KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS: STATE LEVEL ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . 67 5. 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 5. 2. STATE ANALYSIS AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS: SUMMARY OF EARLIER FINDINGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 5. 3. ALTERNATIVE INDICATORS OF LOCAL UNIVERSITY KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS 72 EMPIRICAL RESULT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 5. 4. 5. 5. SUMMARy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 6 THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF UNIVERSITY EFFECTS: MSA LEVEL ANALySIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 6. 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 6. 2. THE MODEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 6. 2. ESTIMATION ISSUES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 6. 3. EMPIRICAL RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 6. 4. SUMMARy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 7 FACTORS GOVERNING UNIVERSITY EFFECTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 7. 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 7. 2. THE EMPIRICAL MODEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 7. 3. REGRESSION RESULTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 7. 4. SPATIAL VARIATION IN THE INTENSITY OF UNIVERSITY KNOWLEDGE TRANSFERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 7. 5. THE "CRITICAL MASS" OF AGGLOMERATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 7. 6. SUMMARy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 8 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 APPENDIX A: DEFINING HIGH TECHNOLOGY FOR THE EMPIRICAL STUDY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 APPENDIX B: VARIABLE DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 INDEX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 List of Tables Table 2. 1.

This book provides a framework for analyzing and forecasting a variety of mineral and energy markets and related industries. Such modeling activity has been at the forefront of the economic and engineering professions for some time, having received a major stimulus fC?llowing the first oil price shock in 1973. Since that time, other shocks have affected these markets and industries, causing disequilibrium economic adjustments which are difficult to analyze and to predict. Moreover, geopolitics remains an important factor which can destabilize crude oil markets and associated refining industries. Mineral and energy modeling, consequently, has become a major interest of energy-related corporations, mining and drilling companies, metal manufacturers, public utilities, investment banks,. national government agencies and international organizations. This book hopes to advance mineral and energy modeling as follows: (1) The modeling process is presented sequentially by leading the model builder from model specification, estimation, simulation, and validation to practical model applications, including explaining history, analyzing policy, and market and price forecasting; (2) New developments in modeling approaches are presented which encompass econometric market and industry models, spatial equilibrium and programming models, optimal resource depletion models, input-output models, economic sector models, and macro oriented energy interaction models (including computable general equilibrium); (3) The verification and application of the models is considered not only individually but also in relation to the performance of alternative modeling approaches; and (4) The modeling framework includes a perspective on new directions, so that the present model building advice will extend into the future.

Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.

PREFACE TO THE COLLECTION PREAMBLE The editors are pleased to present a selection of Henri Theil's contributions to economics and econometrics in three volumes. In Volume I we have provided an overview of Theil's contributions, a brief biography, an annotated bibliography of his research, and a selection of published and unpublished articles and chapters in books dealing with topics in econometrics. Volume II contains Theil's contributions to demand analysis and information theory. Volume III includes Theil's contributions in economic policy and forecasting, and management science. The selection of articles is intended to provide examples of Theil's many seminal and pathbreaking contributions to economics in such areas as econometrics, statistics, demand analysis, information theory, economic policy analysis, aggregation theory, forecasting, index numbers, management science, sociology, operations research, higher education and much more. The collection is also intended to serve as a tribute to him on the occasion of his 68th birthday: These three volumes also highlight some of Theil's contributions and service to the profession as a leader, advisor, administrator, teacher, and researcher. Theil's contributions, which encompass many disciplines, have been extensively cited both in scientific and professional journals. These citations often place Theil among 10 researchers (ranked according to number of times cited) in the world in various the top disciplines.

Agent-Based Computer Simulation of Dichotomous Economic Growth reports a project in agent-based computer stimulation of processes of economic growth in a population of boundedly rational learning agents. The study is an exercise in comparative simulation. That is, the same family of growth models will be simulated under different assumptions about the nature of the learning process and details of the production and growth processes. The purpose of this procedure is to establish a relationship between the assumptions and the simulation results. The study brings together a number of theoretical and technical developments, only some of which may be familiar to any particular reader. In this first chapter, some issues in economic growth are reviewed and the objectives of the study are outlined. In the second chapter, the simulation techniques are introduced and illustrated with baseline simulations of boundedly rational learning processes that do not involve the complications of dealing with long-run economic growth. The third chapter sketches the consensus modern theory of economic growth which is the starting point for further study. In the fourth chapter, a family of steady growth models are simulated, bringing the simulation, growth and learning aspects of the study together. In subsequent chapters, variants on the growth model are explored in a similar way. The ninth chapter introduces trade, with a spacial trading model that is combined with the growth model in the tenth chapter. The book returns again and again to the key question: to what extent can the simulations `explain' the puzzles of economic growth, and particularly the key puzzle of dichotomization, by constructing growth and learning processes that produce the puzzling results? And just what assumptions of the simulations are most predictable associated with the puzzling results?