In a relatively short period of time, data envelopment analysis (DEA) has grown into a powerful analytical tool for measuring and evaluating performance. DEA is computational at its core and this book is one of several Springer aim to publish on the subject. This work deals with the micro aspects of handling and modeling data issues in DEA problems. It is a handbook treatment dealing with specific data problems, including imprecise data and undesirable outputs.

This book is the result of my doctoral dissertation research at the Department of Econometrics of the University of Geneva, Switzerland. This research was also partially financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grants 12- 31072.91 and 12-40300.94). First and foremost, I wish to express my deepest gratitude to Professor Manfred Gilli, my thesis supervisor, for his constant support and help. I would also like to thank the president of my jury, Professor Fabrizio Carlevaro, as well as the other members of the jury, Professor Andrew Hughes Hallett, Professor Jean-Philippe Vial and Professor Gerhard Wanner. I am grateful to my colleagues and friends of the Departement of Econometrics, especially David Miceli who provided constant help and kind understanding during all the stages of my research. I would also like to thank Pascale Mignon for proofreading my text and im proving my English. Finally, I am greatly indebted to my parents for their kindness and encourage ments without which I could never have achieved my goals. Giorgio Pauletto Department of Econometrics, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland Chapter 1 Introduction The purpose of this book is to present the available methodologies for the solution of large-scale macroeconometric models. This work reviews classical solution methods and introduces more recent techniques, such as parallel com puting and nonstationary iterative algorithms."

Patrick Artus and Yves Barroux The Applied Econometric Association organised an international conference on "Monetary and Financial Models" in Geneva in January 1987. The purpose of this book is to make available to the public a choice of the papers that were presented at the conference. The selected papers all deal with the setting of monetary targets and the effects of monetary policy on the economy as well as with the analysis of the financial behaviours of economic agents. Other papers presented at the same conference but dealing with the external aspects of monetary policy (exchange rate policy, international coordination of economic policies, international transmission of business cycles, . . . ) are the matter of a distinct publication. The papers put together to make up this book either are theoretical research contributions or consist of applied statistical or econometric work. It seemed to be more logical to start with the more theoretical papers. The topics tackled in the first two parts of the book have in common the fact that they appeared just recently in the field of economic research and deal with the analysis of the behaviour of Central Banks. They analyse this behaviour so as to be able to exhibit its major determinants as well as revealed preferences of Central Banks: this topic comes under the caption "optimal monetary policy and reaction function of the monetary authorities."

Simulation methods are revolutionizing the practice of applied economic analysis. This volume collects eighteen chapters written by leading researchers from prestigious research institutions the world over. The common denominator of the papers is their relevance for applied research in environmental and resource economics.

The topics range from discrete choice modeling with heterogeneity of preferences, to Bayesian estimation, to Monte Carlo experiments, to structural estimation of Kuhn-Tucker demand systems, to evaluation of simulation noise in maximum simulated likelihood estimates, to dynamic natural resource modeling. Empirical cases are used to show the practical use and the results brought forth by the different methods.

A non-technical introduction to the question of modeling with time-varying parameters, using the beta coefficient from Financial Economics as the main example. After a brief introduction to this coefficient for those not versed in finance, the book presents a number of rather well known tests for constant coefficients and then performs these tests on data from the Stockholm Exchange. The Kalman filter is then introduced and a simple example is used to demonstrate the power of the filter. The filter is then used to estimate the market model with time-varying betas. The book concludes with further examples of how the Kalman filter may be used in estimation models used in analyzing other aspects of finance. Since both the programs and the data used in the book are available for downloading, the book is especially valuable for students and other researchers interested in learning the art of modeling with time varying coefficients.

Non-Parametric Statistical Diagnosis

Productivity growth is a keyword for sustainable economic growth in a knowledge-based society. There has been significant methodological development in the literature on productivity and efficiency analysis, e.g. SFA (Stochastic Frontier Analysis) and DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). All these methodological developments should be matched with applications in order to provide practical implications for private and public decision-makers. This volume provides a collection of up-to-date and new applications of productivity and efficiency analysis. In particular, the case studies cover various economic issues in the Asia-Pacific region. The authors analyze the performance of manufacturing firms, banks, venture capital, broadcasting firms, as well as the issues of efficiency in the education sector, regional development, and defense industry. These case studies will shed light on the potential contribution of productivity and efficiency analysis to the enhancement of economic performance.

World-renowned experts in spatial statistics and spatial econometrics present the latest advances in specification and estimation of spatial econometric models. This includes information on the development of tools and software, and various applications. The text introduces new tests and estimators for spatial regression models, including discrete choice and simultaneous equation models. The performance of techniques is demonstrated through simulation results and a wide array of applications related to economic growth, international trade, knowledge externalities, population-employment dynamics, urban crime, land use, and environmental issues. An exciting new text for academics with a theoretical interest in spatial statistics and econometrics, and for practitioners looking for modern and up-to-date techniques.

This book examines non-Gaussian distributions. It addresses the causes and consequences of non-normality and time dependency in both asset returns and option prices. The book is written for non-mathematicians who want to model financial market prices so the emphasis throughout is on practice. There are abundant empirical illustrations of the models and techniques described, many of which could be equally applied to other financial time series.

This second edition sees the light three years after the first one: too short a time to feel seriously concerned to redesign the entire book, but sufficient to be challenged by the prospect of sharpening our investigation on the working of econometric dynamic models and to be inclined to change the title of the new edition by dropping the "Topics in" of the former edition. After considerable soul searching we agreed to include several results related to topics already covered, as well as additional sections devoted to new and sophisticated techniques, which hinge mostly on the latest research work on linear matrix polynomials by the second author. This explains the growth of chapter one and the deeper insight into representation theorems in the last chapter of the book. The role of the second chapter is that of providing a bridge between the mathematical techniques in the backstage and the econometric profiles in the forefront of dynamic modelling. For this purpose, we decided to add a new section where the reader can find the stochastic rationale of vector autoregressive specifications in econometrics. The third (and last) chapter improves on that of the first edition by re- ing the fruits of the thorough analytic equipment previously drawn up."

Astranger in academia cannot but be impressed by the apparent uniformity and precision of the methodology currently applied to the measurement of economic relationships. In scores of journal articles and other studies, a theoretical argument is typically presented to justify the position that a certain variable is related to certain other, possibly causal, variables. Regression or a related method is applied to a set of observations on these variables, and the conclusion often emerges that the causa,l variables are indeed "significant" at a certain "level," thereby lending support to the theoretical argument-an argument presumably formulated independently of the observations. A variable may be declared significant (and few doubt that this does not mean important) at, say, the 0. 05 level, but not the 0. 01. The effects of the variables are calculated to many significant digits, and are often accompanied by intervals and forecasts of not quite obvious meaning but certainly of reassuring "confidence. " The uniformity is also evident in the many mathematically advanced text books of statistics and econometrics, and in their less rigorous introductory versions for students in economics or business. It is reflected in the tools of the profession: computer programs, from the generaiones addressed to the incidental researcher to the dedicated and sophisticated programs used by the experts, display the same terms and implement the same methodology. In short, there appears no visible alternative to the established methodol ogy and no sign of reservat ions concerning its validity.

In this book, different quantitative approaches to the study of electoral systems have been developed: game-theoretic, decision-theoretic, statistical, probabilistic, combinatorial, geometric, and optimization ones. All the authors are prominent scholars from these disciplines. Quantitative approaches offer a powerful tool to detect inconsistencies or poor performance in actual systems. Applications to concrete settings such as EU, American Congress, regional, and committee voting are discussed.

This text provides a new approach to the subject, including a comprehensive survey of novel theoretical approaches, methods, and models used in macroeconomics and macroeconometrics. The book gives extensive insight into economic policy, incorporates a strong international perspective, and offers a broad historical perspective.

Over the past 25 years, applied econometrics has undergone tremen dous changes, with active developments in fields of research such as time series, labor econometrics, financial econometrics and simulation based methods. Time series analysis has been an active field of research since the seminal work by Box and Jenkins (1976), who introduced a gen eral framework in which time series can be analyzed. In the world of financial econometrics and the application of time series techniques, the ARCH model of Engle (1982) has shifted the focus from the modelling of the process in itself to the modelling of the volatility of the process. In less than 15 years, it has become one of the most successful fields of 1 applied econometric research with hundreds of published papers. As an alternative to the ARCH modelling of the volatility, Taylor (1986) intro duced the stochastic volatility model, whose features are quite similar to the ARCH specification but which involves an unobserved or latent component for the volatility. While being more difficult to estimate than usual GARCH models, stochastic volatility models have found numerous applications in the modelling of volatility and more particularly in the econometric part of option pricing formulas. Although modelling volatil ity is one of the best known examples of applied financial econometrics, other topics (factor models, present value relationships, term structure 2 models) were also successfully tackled.

The determinants of yield curve dynamics have been thoroughly discussed in finance models. However, little can be said about the macroeconomic factors behind the movements of short- and long-term interest rates as well as the risk compensation demanded by financial investors. By taking on a macro-finance perspective, the book's approach explicitly acknowledges the close feedback between monetary policy, the macroeconomy and financial conditions. Both theoretical and empirical models are applied in order to get a profound understanding of the interlinkages between economic activity, the conduct of monetary policy and the underlying macroeconomic factors of bond price movements. Moreover, the book identifies a broad risk-taking channel of monetary transmission which allows a reassessment of the role of financial constraints; it enables policy makers to develop new guidelines for monetary policy and for financial supervision of how to cope with evolving financial imbalances.

On May 27-31, 1985, a series of symposia was held at The University of Western Ontario, London, Canada, to celebrate the 70th birthday of Pro fessor V. M. Joshi. These symposia were chosen to reflect Professor Joshi's research interests as well as areas of expertise in statistical science among faculty in the Departments of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, Economics, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, and Philosophy. From these symposia, the six volumes which comprise the "Joshi Festschrift" have arisen. The 117 articles in this work reflect the broad interests and high quality of research of those who attended our conference. We would like to thank all of the contributors for their superb cooperation in helping us to complete this project. Our deepest gratitude must go to the three people who have spent so much of their time in the past year typing these volumes: Jackie Bell, Lise Constant, and Sandy Tarnowski. This work has been printed from "camera ready" copy produced by our Vax 785 computer and QMS Lasergraphix printers, using the text processing software TEX. At the initiation of this project, we were neophytes in the use of this system. Thank you, Jackie, Lise, and Sandy, for having the persistence and dedication needed to complete this undertaking."

This book presents the state of the art in multilevel analysis, with an emphasis on more advanced topics. These topics are discussed conceptually, analyzed mathematically, and illustrated by empirical examples. Multilevel analysis is the statistical analysis of hierarchically and non-hierarchically nested data. The simplest example is clustered data, such as a sample of students clustered within schools. Multilevel data are especially prevalent in the social and behavioral sciences and in the biomedical sciences. The chapter authors are all leading experts in the field. Given the omnipresence of multilevel data in the social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences, this book is essential for empirical researchers in these fields.

This book contains some of the results from the research project "Demand for Food in the Nordic Countries," which was initiated in 1988 by Professor Olof Bolin of the Agricultural University in Ultuna, Sweden and by Professor Karl Iohan Weckman, of the University of Helsinki, Finland. A pilot study was carried out by Bengt Assarsson, which in 1989 led to a successful application for a research grant from the NKJ (The Nordic Contact Body for Agricultural Research) through the national research councils for agricultural research in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We are very grateful to Olof Bolin and Karl Iohan Weckman, without whom this project would not have come about, and to the national research councils in the Nordic countries for the generous financial support we have received for this project. We have received comments and suggestions from many colleagues, and this has improved our work substantially. At the start of the project a reference group was formed, consisting of Professor Olof Bolin, Professor Anders Klevmarken, Agr. lie. Gert Aage Nielsen, Professor Karl Iohan Weckman and Cando oecon. Per Halvor Vale. Gert Aage Nielsen left the group early in the project for a position in Landbanken, and was replaced by Professor Lars Otto, while Per Halvor Vale soon joined the research staff. The reference group has given us useful suggestions and encouraged us in our work. Weare very grateful to them.

Economists, psychologists, and marketers are interested in determining the monetary value people place on non-market goods for a variety of reasons: to carry out cost-benefit analysis, to determine the welfare effects of technological innovation or public policy, to forecast new product success, and to understand individual and consumer behavior. Unfortunately, many currently available techniques for eliciting individuals' values suffer from a serious problem in that they involve asking individuals hypothetical questions about intended behavior. Experimental auctions circumvent this problem because they involve individuals exchanging real money for real goods in an active market. This represents a promising means for eliciting non-market values. Lusk and Shogren provide a comprehensive guide to the theory and practice of experimental auctions. It will be a valuable resource to graduate students, practitioners and researchers concerned with the design and utilization of experimental auctions in applied economic and marketing research.

Economists, psychologists, and marketers are interested in determining the monetary value people place on non-market goods for a variety of reasons: to carry out cost-benefit analysis, to determine the welfare effects of technological innovation or public policy, to forecast new product success, and to understand individual and consumer behavior. Unfortunately, many currently available techniques for eliciting individuals' values suffer from a serious problem in that they involve asking individuals hypothetical questions about intended behavior. Experimental auctions circumvent this problem because they involve individuals exchanging real money for real goods in an active market. This represents a promising means for eliciting non-market values. Lusk and Shogren provide a comprehensive guide to the theory and practice of experimental auctions. It will be a valuable resource to graduate students, practitioners and researchers concerned with the design and utilization of experimental auctions in applied economic and marketing research.

Use of information is basic to economic theory in two ways. As a basis for optimization, it is central to all normative hypotheses used in eco nomics, but in decision-making situations it has stochastic and evolution ary aspects that are more dynamic and hence more fundamental. This book provides an illustrative survey of the use of information in econom ics and other decision sciences. Since this area is one of the most active fields of research in modern times, it is not possible to be definitive on all aspects of the issues involved. However questions that appear to be most important in this author's view are emphasized in many cases, without drawing any definite conclusions. It is hoped that these questions would provoke new interest for those beginning researchers in the field who are currently most active. Various classifications of information structures and their relevance for optimal decision-making in a stochastic environment are analyzed in some detail. Specifically the following areas are illustrated in its analytic aspects: 1. Stochastic optimization in linear economic models, 2. Stochastic models in dynamic economics with problems of time-inc- sistency, causality and estimation, 3. Optimal output-inventory decisions in stochastic markets, 4. Minimax policies in portfolio theory, 5. Methods of stochastic control and differential games, and 6. Adaptive information structures in decision models in economics and the theory of economic policy."

This book is based on an international conference organised by the Applied Econo- metric Association (AEA) on International Macroeconomic Modelling which was held in Brussels at the Commission of the European Communities in December 1983. On behalf of the Applied Econometric Association, we would like to extend our thanks to all participants and contributors. This conference would not have been possible without the cooperation and support of the Commission of the European Economic Communities and of its Directorate General for Economics and Financial Affairs (DGII) staff, in particular M. Emerson, A. Dramais, and also H. Serbat of the Paris Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Our thanks go also to J.P. Ancot for his constructive comments concerning the structure of this book. We are grateful to M. Russo, R. Maldague and Y. Ullmo for opening the con- ference with their stimulating review and comments on the use of international macroeconomic models; and to R. Bird, A.M. Costa, A. Crockett, H. Guitton, J.C. Milleron, J. Paelinck, J. Waelbroeck for chairing the scientific sessions. P. Artus F. Gagey O. Guvenen vi INTRODUCTION The main focus of this book is to present recent developments in the construction and use of international macroeconometric models. Four main aspects are selected: (i) analysis of trade linkages and exchange rate determination; (ii) modelling and simulating the international economy; (iii) international policy coordination; (iv) the use of international macroeconomic models.

Measuring productive efficiency for nonprofit organizations has posed a great challenge to applied researchers today. The problem has many facets and diverse implications for a number of disciplines such as economics, applied statistics, management science and information theory. This monograph discusses four major areas, which emphasize the applied economic and econometric as. pects of the production frontier analysis: A. Stochastic frontier theory, B. Data envelopment analysis, C. Clustering and estimation theory, D. Economic and managerial applications Besides containing an up-to-date survey of the mos. t recent developments in the field, the monograph presents several new results and theorems from my own research. These include but are not limited to the following: (1) interface with parametric theory, (2) minimax and robust concepts of production frontier, (3) game-theoretic extension of the Farrell and Johansen models, (4) optimal clustering techniques for data envelopment analysis and (5) the dynamic and stochastic generalizations of the efficiency frontier at the micro and macro levels. In my research work in this field I have received great support and inspiration from Professor Abraham Charnes of the University of Texas at Austin, who has basically founded the technique of data envelopment analysis, developed it and is still expanding it. My interactions with him have been most fruitful and productive. I am deeply grateful to him. Finally, I must record my deep appreciation to my wife and two children for their loving and enduring support. But for their support this work would not have been completed.

"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things," provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape--but Fair doesn't stop there.
Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well--including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things" and find out
As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

In the autumn of 1961 Jan Salomon ('Mars') Cramer was appointed to the newly established chair of econometrics at the University of Amsterdam. This volume is published to commemorate this event. It is well-known how much econometrics has developed over the period under consideration, the 25 years that elapsed between 1961 and 1986. This is specifically true for the areas in which Cramer has been actively interested. We mention the theory and measurement of consumer behaviour; money and income; regression, correla tion and forecasting. In the present volume this development will be high lighted. Sixteen contributions have been sollicited from scholars all over the world who have belonged to the circle of academic friends of Cramer for a shorter or longer part of the period of 25 years. The contributions fall broadly speaking into the four areas mentioned above. Theory and measurement of consumer behaviour is represented by four papers, whereas a fifth paper deals with a related area. Richard Blundell and Costas Meghir devote a paper to the estimation of Engel curves. They apply a discrete choice model to British (individual) data from the Family Expenditure Survey 1981. Their aim is to assess the impact of individual characteristics such as income, demographic structure, location, wages and prices on commodity expenditure."