In recent years econometricians have examined the problems of diagnostic testing, specification testing, semiparametric estimation and model selection. In addition researchers have considered whether to use model testing and model selection procedures to decide the models that best fit a particular dataset. This book explores both issues with application to various regression models, including the arbitrage pricing theory models. It is ideal as a reference for statistical sciences postgraduate students, academic researchers and policy makers in understanding the current status of model building and testing techniques.

Agricultural Statistics is published each year to meet the diverse need for a reliable reference book on agricultural production, supplies, consumption, facilities, costs, and returns. Its tables of annual data cover a wide variety of facts in forms suited to most common use. Statistics presented in many of the tables represent actual counts of the items covered. Most of the statistics relating to foreign trade and to government programs, such as numbers and amounts of loans made to farmers, and amounts of loans made by the Commodity Credit Corporation, etc., are data of this type. A large number of other tables, however, contain data that are estimates made by the Department of Agriculture. The estimates for crops, livestock, and poultry made by the U.S. Department of Agriculture are prepared mainly to give timely current state and national totals and averages. They are based on data obtained by sample surveys of farmers and of people who do business with farmers. The survey data are supplemented by information from the Censuses of Agriculture taken every five years and check data from various sources. Being estimates, they are subject to revision as more data become available from commercial or government sources. Unless otherwise indicated, the totals for the United States shown in the various tables on area, production, numbers, price, value, supplies, and disposition are based on official Department estimates. They exclude states for which no official estimates are compiled. Extensive table data include statistics of the following: *Statistics of Grain and Feed *Cotton, Tobacco, Sugar Crops, and Honey *Oilseeds, Fats, and Oils *Vegetables and Melons *Hay, Seeds, and Minor Field Crops *Cattle, Hogs, and Sheep *Dairy and Poultry *Insurance, Credit & Cooperatives *Agricultural Conservation & Forestry *Consumption & Family Living *Fertilizers & Pesticides Miscellaneous Agricultural Statistics such as Foreign Agricultural Trade Statistics including exports, fisheries and more. Professionals in the following fields to include farmers, ranchers, soil conservationists, surveyors, agricultural economist consultants, livestock manufacturers, livestock feedlot operators, food distributors, animal scientists, food chemists, food brokers, farm and land appraisers (and more) may have the greatest interest in this volume.

Sociological theories of crime include: theories of strain blame crime on personal stressors; theories of social learning blame crime on its social rewards, and see crime more as an institution in conflict with other institutions rather than as in- vidual deviance; and theories of control look at crime as natural and rewarding, and explore the formation of institutions that control crime. Theorists of corruption generally agree that corruption is an expression of the Patron-Client relationship in which a person with access to resources trades resources with kin and members of the community in exchange for loyalty. Some approaches to modeling crime and corruption do not involve an explicit simulation: rule based systems; Bayesian networks; game theoretic approaches, often based on rational choice theory; and Neoclassical Econometrics, a rational choice-based approach. Simulation-based approaches take into account greater complexities of interacting parts of social phenomena. These include fuzzy cognitive maps and fuzzy rule sets that may incorporate feedback; and agent-based simulation, which can go a step farther by computing new social structures not previously identified in theory. The latter include cognitive agent models, in which agents learn how to perceive their en- ronment and act upon the perceptions of their individual experiences; and reactive agent simulation, which, while less capable than cognitive-agent simulation, is adequate for testing a policy's effects with existing societal structures. For example, NNL is a cognitive agent model based on the REPAST Simphony toolkit.

"Econometric Theory" presents a modern approach to the theory of econometric estimation and inference, with particular applications to time series. An ideal reference for practitioners and researchers, the book is also suited for advanced two-semester econometrics courses and one-semester regression courses.

Based on lectures originally given to graduates at the London School of Economics, the book applies recent developments in asymptotic theory to derive the properties of estimators when the model is only partially specified. Topics covered in depth include the linear regression model, dynamic modeling, simultaneous equations, optimization estimators, hypothesis testing, and the theory of nonstationary time series and cointegration.

This book analyzes evolution of monetary policy in Rwanda since it was first implemented by the National Bank of Rwanda in 1964 when the bank was established. It contributes to the understanding of monetary policy which is formulation and implementation in different stages of development of a financial system that comprises the financial market (money market and capital market), financial intermediaries such as commercial banks, and the financial sector infrastructures such as payment systems and the credit reference bureau. The book breaks down applied empirical research on the assessment of key assumptions of a monetary targeting framework, namely the stability of money multiplier and money demand using econometrics of time series, through a number of case studies. Presenting a detailed empirical analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism, one of the most analyzed topics in central banks in advanced economies, this book is a valuable read for central bankers and other researchers of monetary policy, particularly in developing economies.

This book gives a thorough and systematic introduction to the latest research results about fuzzy decision-making method based on prospect theory. It includes eight chapters: Introduction, Intuitionistic fuzzy MADM based on prospect theory, QUALIFLEX based on prospect theory with probabilistic linguistic information, Group PROMETHEE based on prospect theory with hesitant fuzzy linguistic information, Prospect consensus with probabilistic hesitant fuzzy preference information, Improved TODIM based on prospect theory and the improved TODIM with probabilistic hesitant fuzzy information, etc. This book is suitable for the researchers in the fields of fuzzy mathematics, operations research, behavioral science, management science and engineering, etc. It is also useful as a textbook for postgraduate and senior-year undergraduate students of the relevant professional institutions of higher learning.

How do groups form, how do institutions come into being, and when do moral norms and practices emerge? This volume explores how game-theoretic approaches can be extended to consider broader questions that cross scales of organization, from individuals to cooperatives to societies. Game theory' strategic formulation of central problems in the analysis of social interactions is used to develop multi-level theories that examine the interplay between individuals and the collectives they form. The concept of cooperation is examined at a higher level than that usually addressed by game theory, especially focusing on the formation of groups and the role of social norms in maintaining their integrity, with positive and negative implications. The authors suggest that conventional analyses need to be broadened to explain how heuristics, like concepts of fairness, arise and become formalized into the ethical principles embraced by a society.

This book scientifically tests the assertion that accommodative monetary policy can eliminate the "crowd out" problem, allowing fiscal stimulus programs (such as tax cuts or increased government spending) to stimulate the economy as intended. It also tests to see if natural growth in th economy can cure the crowd out problem as well or better. The book is intended to be the largest scale scientific test ever performed on this topic. It includes about 800 separate statistical tests on the U.S. economy testing different parts or all of the period 1960 - 2010. These tests focus on whether accommodative monetary policy, which increases the pool of loanable resources, can offset the crowd out problem as well as natural growth in the economy. The book, employing the best scientific methods available to economists for this type of problem, concludes accommodate monetary policy could have, but until the quantitative easing program, Federal Reserve efforts to accommodate fiscal stimulus programs were not large enough to offset more than 23% to 44% of any one year's crowd out problem. That provides the science part of the answer as to why accommodative monetary policy didn't accommodate: too little of it was tried. The book also tests whether other increases in loanable funds, occurring because of natural growth in the economy or changes in the savings rate can also offset crowd out. It concludes they can, and that these changes tend to be several times as effective as accommodative monetary policy. This book's companion volume Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail explores the policy implications of these results.

Business Statistics of the United States is a comprehensive and practical collection of data from as early as 1913 that reflects the nation's economic performance. It provides over 80 years of annual, quarterly, and monthly data in industrial and demographic detail including key indicators such as: gross domestic product, personal income, spending, saving, employment, unemployment, the capital stock, and more. Business Statistics of the United States is the best place to find historical perspectives on the U.S. economy. Of equal importance to the data are the introductory highlights, extensive notes, and figures for each chapter that help users to understand the data, use them appropriately, and, if desired, seek additional information from the source agencies. Business Statistics of the United States provides a rich and deep picture of the American economy and contains approximately 3,500 time series in all. The data are predominately from federal government sources including: *Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System *Bureau of Economic Analysis *Bureau of Labor Statistics *Census Bureau *Employment and Training Administration *Energy Information Administration *Federal Housing Finance Agency *U.S. Department of the Treasury

This handbook presents emerging research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of econometric techniques for the financial sector and their applications in economics. By doing so, it offers invaluable tools for predicting and weighing the risks of multiple investments by incorporating data analysis. Throughout the book the authors address a broad range of topics such as predictive analysis, monetary policy, economic growth, systemic risk and investment behavior. This book is a must-read for researchers, scholars and practitioners in the field of economics who are interested in a better understanding of current research on the application of econometric methods to financial sector data.

A provocative new analysis of immigration's long-term effects on a nation's economy and culture. Over the last two decades, as economists began using big datasets and modern computing power to reveal the sources of national prosperity, their statistical results kept pointing toward the power of culture to drive the wealth of nations. In The Culture Transplant, Garett Jones documents the cultural foundations of cross-country income differences, showing that immigrants import cultural attitudes from their homelands—toward saving, toward trust, and toward the role of government—that persist for decades, and likely for centuries, in their new national homes. Full assimilation in a generation or two, Jones reports, is a myth. And the cultural traits migrants bring to their new homes have enduring effects upon a nation's economic potential. Built upon mainstream, well-reviewed academic research that hasn't pierced the public consciousness, this book offers a compelling refutation of an unspoken consensus that a nation's economic and political institutions won't be changed by immigration. Jones refutes the common view that we can discuss migration policy without considering whether migration can, over a few generations, substantially transform the economic and political institutions of a nation. And since most of the world's technological innovations come from just a handful of nations, Jones concludes, the entire world has a stake in whether migration policy will help or hurt the quality of government and thus the quality of scientific breakthroughs in those rare innovation powerhouses.

Space is a crucial variable in any economic activity. Spatial Economics is the branch of economics that explicitly aims to incorporate the space dimension in the analysis of economic phenomena. From its beginning in the last century, Spatial Economics has contributed to the understanding of the economy by developing plenty of theoretical models as well as econometric techniques having the "space" as a core dimension of the analysis.This edited volume addresses the complex issue of Spatial Economics from an applied point of view. This volume is part of a more complex project including another edited volume (Spatial Economics Volume I: Theory) collecting original papers which address Spatial Economics from a theoretical perspective.

This monograph addresses the methodological and empirical issues relevant for the development of sustainable agriculture, with a particular focus on Eastern Europe. It relates economic growth to the other dimensions of sustainability by applying integrated methods. The book comprises five chapters dedicated to the theoretical approaches towards sustainable rural development, productivity analysis, structural change analysis and environmental footprint. The book focuses on the transformations of the agricultural sector while taking into account economic, environmental, and social dynamics. The importance of agricultural transformations to the livelihood of the rural population and food security are highlighted. Further, advanced methodologies and frameworks are presented to fathom the underlying trends in different facets of agricultural production. The authors present statistical methods used for the analysis of agricultural sustainability along with applications for agriculture in the European Union. Additionally, they discuss the measures of efficiency, methodological approaches and empirical models. Finally, the book applies econometric and optimization techniques, which are useful for the estimation of the production functions and other representations of technology in the case of the European Union member states. Therefore, the book is a must-read for researchers and students of agricultural and production economics, as well as policy-makers and academia in general.

This Handbook takes an econometric approach to the foundations of economic performance analysis. The focus is on the measurement of efficiency, productivity, growth and performance. These concepts are commonly measured residually and difficult to quantify in practice. In real-life applications, efficiency and productivity estimates are often quite sensitive to the models used in the performance assessment and the methodological approaches adopted by the analysis. The Palgrave Handbook of Performance Analysis discusses the two basic techniques of performance measurement - deterministic benchmarking and stochastic benchmarking - in detail, and addresses the statistical techniques that connect them. All chapters include applications and explore topics ranging from the output/input ratio to productivity indexes and national statistics.

In this book, Nancy and Richard Ruggles demonstrate their unique grasp of the measurement and analysis of macro and micro data and elucidate ways of integrating the two data sets. Their analysis of macrodata is used to examine the economic growth of the United States from the 1920s to the present day. They focus particularly on recession and recovery between 1929 and 1974 and the measurement of short-run economic growth. They also examine the measurement of saving, investment and capital formation in the United States. On a microeconomic level, they analyse economic intelligence in World War II, offer a study of fertility in the United States in the pre-war era and analyse longitudinal establishment data. Finally they integrating the two approaches to provide a method of providing a more complete picture of social and economic performance.

The volume examines the state-of-the-art of productivity and efficiency analysis. It brings together a selection of the best papers from the 10th North American Productivity Workshop. By analyzing world-wide perspectives on challenges that local economies and institutions may face when changes in productivity are observed, readers can quickly assess the impact of productivity measurement, productivity growth, dynamics of productivity change, measures of labor productivity, measures of technical efficiency in different sectors, frontier analysis, measures of performance, industry instability and spillover effects. The contributions in this volume focus on the theory and application of economics, econometrics, statistics, management science and operational research related to problems in the areas of productivity and efficiency measurement. Popular techniques and methodologies including stochastic frontier analysis and data envelopment analysis are represented. Chapters also cover broader issues related to measuring, understanding, incentivizing and improving the productivity and performance of firms, public services, and industries.

Building on the strength of the first edition, Quantitative Methods for Business and Economics provides a simple introduction to the mathematical and statistical techniques needed in business. This book is accessible and easy to use, with the emphasis clearly on how to apply quantitative techniques to business situations. It includes numerous real world applications and many opportunities for student interaction. It is clearly focused on business, management and economics students taking a single module in Quantitative Methods.

It is very useful and timely book as demand forecasting has become a very crucial tool and provides important information for destination on which policy are created and implemented. This is especially important given the complexities arising the aftermath of the Covid19 pandemic. * It looks at novel and recent developments in this field including judgement and scenario forecasting. * Offers a comprehensive approach to tourism econometrics, looking at a variety of aspects. * The authors are experts in this field and of the highest academic calibre.

The book focuses on problem solving for practitioners and model building for academicians under multivariate situations. This book helps readers in understanding the issues, such as knowing variability, extracting patterns, building relationships, and making objective decisions. A large number of multivariate statistical models are covered in the book. The readers will learn how a practical problem can be converted to a statistical problem and how the statistical solution can be interpreted as a practical solution. Key features: Links data generation process with statistical distributions in multivariate domain Provides step by step procedure for estimating parameters of developed models Provides blueprint for data driven decision making Includes practical examples and case studies relevant for intended audiences The book will help everyone involved in data driven problem solving, modeling and decision making.

Volume 40 in the Advances in Econometrics series features twenty-three chapters that are split thematically into two parts. Part A presents novel contributions to the analysis of time series and panel data with applications in macroeconomics, finance, cognitive science and psychology, neuroscience, and labor economics. Part B examines innovations in stochastic frontier analysis, nonparametric and semiparametric modeling and estimation, A/B experiments, big-data analysis, and quantile regression. Individual chapters, written by both distinguished researchers and promising young scholars, cover many important topics in statistical and econometric theory and practice. Papers primarily, though not exclusively, adopt Bayesian methods for estimation and inference, although researchers of all persuasions should find considerable interest in the chapters contained in this work. The volume was prepared to honor the career and research contributions of Professor Dale J. Poirier. For researchers in econometrics, this volume includes the most up-to-date research across a wide range of topics.

Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series has a long history, with the use of linear trends and moving averages forming the basic tool kit of economists until the 1970s. Several developments in econometrics then led to an overhaul of the techniques used to extract trends and cycles from time series. In this second edition, Terence Mills expands on the research in the area of trends and cycles over the last (almost) two decades, to highlight to students and researchers the variety of techniques and the considerations that underpin their choice for modelling trends and cycles.

This book is dedicated to the study of the term structures of the yields of zero-coupon bonds. The methods it describes differ from those usually found in the literature in that the time variable is not the term to maturity but the interest rate duration, or another convenient non-linear transformation of terms. This makes it possible to consider yield curves not only for a limited interval of term values, but also for the entire positive semiaxis of terms. The main focus is the comparative analysis of yield curves and forward curves and the analytical study of their features. Generalizations of yield term structures are studied where the dimension of the state space of the financial market is increased. In cases where the analytical approach is too cumbersome, or impossible, numerical techniques are used. This book will be of interest to financial analysts, financial market researchers, graduate students and PhD students.

Econometrics, Macroeconomics and Economic Policy presents eighteen papers by Carl Christ focusing on econometric models, their evaluation and history, and the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy.Professor Christ's pioneering contributions to econometrics, monetary and fiscal policies and the government's budget constraint are thoroughly covered in this volume. Other areas addressed include monetary economics, monetary policy, macroeconomic model building, and the role of the economist in economic policy making. The book also features an original new introduction by the author and a detailed bibliography. Econometricians and macroeconomists will welcome this outstanding volume in which Professor Christ argues firmly for the importance of testing econometric equations and models against new data, as well as for exploring the impact of the policies of central government.

Written by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.

Space is a crucial variable in any economic activity. Spatial Economics is the branch of economics that explicitly aims to incorporate the space dimension in the analysis of economic phenomena. From its beginning in the last century, Spatial Economics has contributed to the understanding of the economy by developing plenty of theoretical models as well as econometric techniques having the "space" as a core dimension of the analysis. This edited volume addresses the complex issue of Spatial Economics from a theoretical point of view. This volume is part of a more complex project including another edited volume (Spatial Economics Volume II: Applications) collecting original papers which address Spatial Economics from an applied perspective.