Time Series: Theory and Methods is a systematic account of linear time series models and their application to the modelling and prediction of data collected sequentially in time. The aim is to provide specific techniques for handling data and at the same time to provide a thorough understanding of the mathematical basis for techniques. Both time and frequency domain methods are discussed, but the book is written in such a way that either approach could be emphasized. The book intended to be a text for graduate students in statistics, mathematics, engineering, and the natural or social sciences. It contains substantial chapters on multivariate series and state-space models (including applications of the Kalman recursions to missing-value problems) and shorter accounts of special topics including long-range dependence, infinite variance processes and non-linear models. Most of the programs used in the book are available on diskettes for the IBM-PC. These diskettes, with the accompanying manual, ITSM: The Interactive Time Series Modelling Package for the PC, also by Brockwell and Davis, can be purchased from Springer-Verlag.

This title was first published in 2003. This book provides a much-needed comprehensive and up-to-date treatise on financial distress modelling. Since many of the challenges facing researchers of financial distress can only be addressed by a totally new research design and modelling methodology, this book concentrates on extending the potential for bankruptcy analysis from single-equation modelling to multi-equation analysis. Essentially, the work provides an innovative new approach by comparing each firm with itself over time rather than testing specific hypotheses or improving predictive and classificatory accuracy. Added to this new design, a whole new methodology - or way of modelling the process - is applied in the form of a family of models of which the traditional single equation logit or MDA models is just a special case. Preliminary two-equation and three-equation models are presented and tested in the final chapters as a taste of things to come. The groundwork for a full treatise on these sorts of multi-equation systems is laid for further study - this family of models could be used as a basis for more specific applications to different industries and to test hypotheses concerning influential variables to bankruptcy risk.

The study of sport in the economy presents a rich arena for the application of sharply focused microeconomics, macroeconomics and econometrics to both team and individual outcomes. This unique book offers a survey of recent research that follows the tradition of empirical and theoretical analysis of sport economics and econometrics. Including contributions by many of the leading experts in the field, the authors address four central branches, namely: competitive balance, labor relations, attendance and demand, and the economic impact of sport in communities. A wide range of topics is explored within these themes, including: the effect of uncertainty of outcome on attendance players' labor markets, wages and team performance variations in fan loyalty between teams and through time the determinants of soccer match attendance. Case studies of Major League Baseball, the National Football League (NFL) and college athletics in the US, the English Premier League, the Spanish football league and other (major and minor) European football leagues underpin the discussion. This important book will prove to be a fascinating and stimulating read for academics, researchers and students interested in the econometric analysis of sport. Contributors: G.M. Ahlfeldt, J. Banos, R. Baumann, D.J. Berri, R. Fort, B. Frick, J. Garcia, W. Greene, B.R. Humphreys, L. Kahane, G. Kavetsos, S. Kesenne, Y.H. Lee, N. Longley, V.A. Matheson, R.G. Noll, P. Rodriguez, R. Simmons, S. Szymanski, J. Vrooman

Key Topics in Clinical Research aims to provide a short, clear, highlighted reference to guide trainees and trainers through research and audit projects, from first idea, through to data collection and statistical analysis, to presentation and publication. This book is also designed to assist trainees in preparing for their specialty examinations by providing comprehensive, concise, easily accessible and easily understandable information on all aspects of clinical research and audit.

This book presents a critical review of the empirical literature that studies the efficiency of the forward and futures markets for foreign exchange. It provides a useful foundation for research in developing quantitative measures of risk and expected return in international finance.

The volume examines the state-of-the-art of productivity and efficiency analysis. It brings together a selection of the best papers from the 10th North American Productivity Workshop. By analyzing world-wide perspectives on challenges that local economies and institutions may face when changes in productivity are observed, readers can quickly assess the impact of productivity measurement, productivity growth, dynamics of productivity change, measures of labor productivity, measures of technical efficiency in different sectors, frontier analysis, measures of performance, industry instability and spillover effects. The contributions in this volume focus on the theory and application of economics, econometrics, statistics, management science and operational research related to problems in the areas of productivity and efficiency measurement. Popular techniques and methodologies including stochastic frontier analysis and data envelopment analysis are represented. Chapters also cover broader issues related to measuring, understanding, incentivizing and improving the productivity and performance of firms, public services, and industries.

Computationally-intensive tools play an increasingly important role in financial decisions. Many financial problems-ranging from asset allocation to risk management and from option pricing to model calibration-can be efficiently handled using modern computational techniques. Numerical Methods and Optimization in Finance presents such computational techniques, with an emphasis on simulation and optimization, particularly so-called heuristics. This book treats quantitative analysis as an essentially computational discipline in which applications are put into software form and tested empirically. This revised edition includes two new chapters, a self-contained tutorial on implementing and using heuristics, and an explanation of software used for testing portfolio-selection models. Postgraduate students, researchers in programs on quantitative and computational finance, and practitioners in banks and other financial companies can benefit from this second edition of Numerical Methods and Optimization in Finance.

The analysis prediction and interpolation of economic and other time series has a long history and many applications. Major new developments are taking place, driven partly by the need to analyze financial data. The five papers in this book describe those new developments from various viewpoints and are intended to be an introduction accessible to readers from a range of backgrounds. The book arises out of the second Seminaire European de Statistique (SEMSTAT) held in Oxford in December 1994. This brought together young statisticians from across Europe, and a series of introductory lectures were given on topics at the forefront of current research activity. The lectures form the basis for the five papers contained in the book. The papers by Shephard and Johansen deal respectively with time series models for volatility, i.e. variance heterogeneity, and with cointegration. Clements and Hendry analyze the nature of prediction errors. A complementary review paper by Laird gives a biometrical view of the analysis of short time series. Finally Astrup and Nielsen give a mathematical introduction to the study of option pricing. Whilst the book draws its primary motivation from financial series and from multivariate econometric modelling, the applications are potentially much broader.

In Capital Theory and Equilibrium Analysis and Recursive Utility, Robert Becker and John Boyd have synthesized their previously unpublished work on recursive models. The use of recursive utility emphasizes time-consistent decision making. This permits a unified and systematic account of economic dynamics based on neoclassical growth theory.The book provides extensive coverage of optimal growth (including endogenous growth), dynamic competitive equilibria, nonlinear dynamics, and monotone comparative dynamics. It is addressed to all researchers in economic growth, and will be useful to professional economists and graduate students alike.

This volume gathers together key new contributions on the subject of the relationship, both empirical and theoretical, between economic oscillations, growth and structural change. Employing a sophisticated level of mathematical modelling, the collection contains articles from, amongst others, William Baumol, Katsuhito Iwai and William Brock.

eBook available with sample pages: 0203164830

Business Statistics of the United States is a comprehensive and practical collection of data from as early as 1913 that reflects the nation's economic performance. It provides several years of annual, quarterly, and monthly data in industrial and demographic detail including key indicators such as: gross domestic product, personal income, spending, saving, employment, unemployment, the capital stock, and more. Business Statistics of the United States is the best place to find historical perspectives on the U.S. economy. Of equal importance to the data are the introductory highlights, extensive notes, and figures for each chapter that help users to understand the data, use them appropriately, and, if desired, seek additional information from the source agencies. Business Statistics of the United States provides a rich and deep picture of the American economy and contains approximately 3,500 time series in all. The data are predominately from federal government sources including: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Labor Statistics Census Bureau Employment and Training Administration Energy Information Administration Federal Housing Finance Agency U.S. Department of the Treasury

First published in 1995. In the current, increasingly global economy, investors require quick access to a wide range of financial and investment-related statistics to assist them in better understanding the macroeconomic environment in which their investments will operate. The International Financial Statistics Locator eliminates the need to search though a number of sources to identify those that contain much of this statistical information. It is intended for use by librarians, students, individual investors, and the business community and provides access to twenty-two resources, print and electronic, that contain current and historical financial and economic statistics investors need to appreciate and profit from evolving and established international markets.

This book provides an economic and econometric analysis of real estate investment and real estate market behaviour. Peijie Wang examines fluctuations in the real estate business to reveal the mechanisms governing the interactions between the industry and other sectors of the economy.

eBook available with sample pages: 0203164393

Originally published in 1929. This balanced combination of fieldwork, statistical measurement, and realistic applications shows a synthesis of economics and political science in a conception of an organic relationship between the two sciences that involves functional analysis, institutional interpretation, and a more workmanlike approach to questions of organization such as division of labour and the control of industry. The treatise applies the test of fact through statistical analysis to economic and political theories for the quantitative and institutional approach in solving social and industrial problems. It constructs a framework of concepts, combining both economic and political theory, to systematically produce an original statement in general terms of the principles and methods for statistical fieldwork. The separation into Parts allows selective reading for the methods of statistical measurement; the principles and fallacies of applying these measures to economic and political fields; and the resultant construction of a statistical economics and politics. Basic statistical concepts are described for application, with each method of statistical measurement illustrated with instances relevant to the economic and political theory discussed and a statistical glossary is included.

Originally published in 1984. Since the logic underlying economic theory can only be grasped fully by a thorough understanding of the mathematics, this book will be invaluable to economists wishing to understand vast areas of important research. It provides a basic introduction to the fundamental mathematical ideas of topology and calculus, and uses these to present modern singularity theory and recent results on the generic existence of isolated price equilibria in exchange economies.

Originally published in 1984. This book brings together a reasonably complete set of results regarding the use of Constraint Item estimation procedures under the assumption of accurate specification. The analysis covers the case of all explanatory variables being non-stochastic as well as the case of identified simultaneous equations, with error terms known and unknown. Particular emphasis is given to the derivation of criteria for choosing the Constraint Item. Part 1 looks at the best CI estimators and Part 2 examines equation by equation estimation, considering forecasting accuracy.

This book systematically provides a prospective integrated approach for complexity social science in its view of statistical physics and mathematics, with an impressive collection of the knowledge and expertise of leading researchers from all over the world. The book mainly covers both finitary methods of statistical equilibrium and data-driven analysis by econophysics. The late Professor Masanao Aoki of UCLA, who passed away at the end of July 2018, in his later years dedicated himself to the reconstruction of macroeconomics mainly in terms of statistical physics. Professor Aoki, who was already an IEEE fellow, was also named an Econometric Society Fellow in 1979. Until the early 1990s, however, his contributions were focused on the new developments of a novel algorithm for the time series model and their applications to economic data. Those contributions were undoubtedly equivalent to the Nobel Prize-winning work of Granger's "co-integration method". After the publications of his New Approaches to Macroeconomic Modeling and Modeling Aggregate Behavior and Fluctuations in Economics, both published by Cambridge University Press, in 1996 and 2002, respectively, his contributions rapidly became known and spread throughout the field. In short, these new works challenged econophysicists to develop evolutionary stochastic dynamics, multiple equilibria, and externalities as field effects and revolutionized the stochastic views of interacting agents. In particular, the publication of Reconstructing Macroeconomics, also by Cambridge University Press (2007), in cooperation with Hiroshi Yoshikawa, further sharpened the process of embodying "a perspective from statistical physics and combinatorial stochastic processes" in economic modeling. Interestingly, almost concurrently with Prof. Aoki's newest development, similar approaches were appearing. Thus, those who were working in the same context around the world at that time came together, exchanging their results during the past decade. In memory of Prof. Aoki, this book has been planned by authors who followed him to present the most advanced outcomes of his heritage.

In the theory and practice of econometrics the model, the method and the data are all interdependent links in information recovery-estimation and inference. Seldom, however, are the economic and statistical models correctly specified, the data complete or capable of being replicated, the estimation rules ‘optimal’ and the inferences free of distortion. Faced with these problems, Maximum Entropy Economeirics provides a new basis for learning from economic and statistical models that may be non-regular in the sense that they are ill-posed or underdetermined and the data are partial or incomplete. By extending the maximum entropy formalisms used in the physical sciences, the authors present a new set of generalized entropy techniques designed to recover information about economic systems. The authors compare the generalized entropy techniques with the performance of the relevant traditional methods of information recovery and clearly demonstrate theories with applications including

• Pure inverse problems that include first order Markov processes, and input-output, multisectoral or SAM models to
• Inverse problems with noise that include statistical models subject to ill-conditioning, non-normal errors, heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, censored, multinomial and simultaneous response data, as well as model selection and non-stationary and dynamic control problems

This is the very first book to offer seven substantial econometric models of the Chinese economy with the statistical data used, so that the reader will be able to reproduce them all and test them for any policy alternatives. The book presents up-to-date models produced both inside and outside China, so that readers can understand most of the advanced studies of the Chinese economy by Chinese experts at the present time. This is an invaluable reference for graduate students and scholars working on Chinese economic problems.

It has been held that when economic policy makers use economic models, there is a one way flow of information from the models to policy analysis. This text challenges this assumption, recognizing that in practice the requirements and questions of policy makers play an important role in the development and revision of those very models. Written by highly-placed practitioners and academic economists, it provides a picture of how modellers and policy makers interact with depth, insight and conviction. It offers international case studies of particular interactions between models and policy making, exploring questions such as: how does interaction work? What roles do different professional groups play in interaction? What strategies make the use of models in policy preparation successful? What insights can sociologists and historians give on the interaction between models and policy makers?

This study, first published in 1979, examines and contrasts two concepts of credit rationing. The first concept takes the relevant price of credit to be the explicit interest rate on the loan and defines the demand for credit as the amount an individual borrower would like to receive at that rate. Under the alternative definition, the price of credit consists of the complete set of loan terms confronting a class of borrowers with given characteristics, while the demand for credit equals the total number of loan which members of the class would like to receive at those terms. This title will be of interest to students of monetary economics.

This collection, written by highly-placed practitioners and academic economists, provides a picture of how economic modellers and policy makers interact. The book provides international case studies of particular interactions between models and policy making, and argues that the flow of information is two-way.

eBook available with sample pages: 0203130499

Originally published in 1989. ECESIS consists of 51 regional econometric models (one for each state and the District of Columbia) and a multiregional demographic model. Its distinguishing feature is the linking of sophisticated demographic accounts with sophisticated structural econometric models. This book, looking at how strong the interactions are between population dynamics and economic activity, determines to what extent the simultaneous economic-demographic interregional model provides improved projection and simulation properties over regional economic and demographic models used independently of one another.

Originally published in 1979. This study focuses primarily on the development of a structural model for the U. S. Government securities market, ie. the specification and estimation of the demands for disaggregated maturity classes of U.S. Government securities by the individual investor groups participating in the market. A particularly important issue addressed involves the extent of the substitution relationship among different maturity classes of U.S. Government securities.

First Published in 2000. Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an informa company.