Turbulence in Economics presents the economy as an evolutionary process, economics as a realistic science and reintroduces history as fundamental to understanding economic processes. It examines cycles and fluctuations in economic history from the point of view of turbulence in the physical sciences, (specifically hydrodynamics), and argues that an evolutionary approach is required for a better understanding of historical economic processes. Economic time is marked by a succession of long periods of economic expansion and depression, separated by deep structural changes. These periods represent distinct forms of organization of social relations, science and technology, cultural trends and political and social institutions. This is accepted by historians but rejected in orthodox economics. In this book the author challenges this and argues that the divorce between economics and history limits the ability of economics to explain reality. Within this inquiry into the crisis of orthodox economics the author considers Keynes's, Mitchell's and Schumpeter's critiques of neoclassical economics. The author then compares these to the contributions of Frisch and Wicksell, and examines recent studies of chaos, nonlinear and complex dynamics to explain the historical development of modern economics. This book will be welcomed by economic historians, historians of economic thought, institutional and evolutionary economists and those interested in chaos, complexity and modern methodology.

Portfolio theory and much of asset pricing, as well as many empirical applications, depend on the use of multivariate probability distributions to describe asset returns. Traditionally, this has meant the multivariate normal (or Gaussian) distribution. More recently, theoretical and empirical work in financial economics has employed the multivariate Student (and other) distributions which are members of the elliptically symmetric class. There is also a growing body of work which is based on skew-elliptical distributions. These probability models all exhibit the property that the marginal distributions differ only by location and scale parameters or are restrictive in other respects. Very often, such models are not supported by the empirical evidence that the marginal distributions of asset returns can differ markedly. Copula theory is a branch of statistics which provides powerful methods to overcome these shortcomings. This book provides a synthesis of the latest research in the area of copulae as applied to finance and related subjects such as insurance. Multivariate non-Gaussian dependence is a fact of life for many problems in financial econometrics. This book describes the state of the art in tools required to deal with these observed features of financial data. This book was originally published as a special issue of the European Journal of Finance.

In Capital Theory and Equilibrium Analysis and Recursive Utility, Robert Becker and John Boyd have synthesized their previously unpublished work on recursive models. The use of recursive utility emphasizes time-consistent decision making. This permits a unified and systematic account of economic dynamics based on neoclassical growth theory.The book provides extensive coverage of optimal growth (including endogenous growth), dynamic competitive equilibria, nonlinear dynamics, and monotone comparative dynamics. It is addressed to all researchers in economic growth, and will be useful to professional economists and graduate students alike.

Human behavior often violates the predictions of rational choice theory. This realization has caused many social psychologists and experimental economists to attempt to develop an experimentally-based variant of game theory as an alternative descriptive model. The impetus for this book is the interest in the development of such a theory that combines elements from both disciplines and appeals to both.
The editors have brought together leading researchers in the fields of experimental economics, behavioral game theory, and social dilemmas to engage in constructive dialogue across disciplinary boundaries. This book offers a comprehensive overview of the new insights into the motivation of human behavior under a variety of naturally or artificially induced incentive structures that are emerging from their work. Amnon Rapoport--a pioneer and leader in experimental study and quantitative modeling of human decisions in social and interactive contexts--is honored.

This is a classical reprint edition of the original 1971 edition of An Introduction to Bayesian Inference in Economics. This historical volume is an early introduction to Bayesian inference and methodology which still has lasting value for today's statistician and student. The coverage ranges from the fundamental concepts and operations of Bayesian inference to analysis of applications in specific econometric problems and the testing of hypotheses and models.

This work examines theoretical issues, as well as practical developments in statistical inference related to econometric models and analysis. This work offers discussions on such areas as the function of statistics in aggregation, income inequality, poverty, health, spatial econometrics, panel and survey data, bootstrapping and time series.

This book studies the information spillover among financial markets and explores the intraday effect and ACD models with high frequency data. This book also contributes theoretically by providing a new statistical methodology with comparative advantages for analyzing co-movements between two time series. It explores this new method by testing the information spillover between the Chinese stock market and the international market, futures market and spot market. Using the high frequency data, this book investigates the intraday effect and examines which type of ACD model is particularly suited in capturing financial duration dynamics. The book will be of invaluable use to scholars and graduate students interested in co-movements among different financial markets and financial market microstructure and to investors and regulation departments looking to improve their risk management.

Business students need the ability to think statistically about how to deal with uncertainty and its effect on decision-making in business and management. Traditional statistics courses and textbooks tend to focus on probability, mathematical detail, and heavy computation, and thus fail to meet the needs of future managers. Statistical Thinking in Business, Second Edition responds to the growing recognition that we must change the way business statistics is taught. It shows how statistics is important in all aspects of business and equips students with the skills they need to make sensible use of data and other information. The authors take an interactive, scenario-based approach and use almost no mathematical formulas, opting to use Excel for the technical work. This allows them to focus on using statistics to aid decision-making rather than how to perform routine calculations. New in the Second Edition A completely revised chapter on forecasting Re-arrangement of the material on data presentation with the inclusion of histograms and cumulative line plots A more thorough discussion of the analysis of attribute data Coverage of variable selection and model building in multiple regression End-of-chapter summaries More end-of-chapter problems A variety of case studies throughout the book The second edition also comes with a wealth of ancillary materials provided on downloadable resources packaged with the book. These include automatically-marked multiple-choice questions, answers to questions in the text, data sets, Excel experiments and demonstrations, an introduction to Excel, and the StiBstat Add-In for stem and leaf plots, box plots, distribution plots, control charts and summary statistics.

This volume gathers peer-reviewed contributions that address a wide range of recent developments in the methodology and applications of data analysis and classification tools in micro and macroeconomic problems. The papers were originally presented at the 29th Conference of the Section on Classification and Data Analysis of the Polish Statistical Association, SKAD 2020, held in Sopot, Poland, September 7-9, 2020. Providing a balance between methodological contributions and empirical papers, the book is divided into five parts focusing on methodology, finance, economics, social issues and applications dealing with COVID-19 data. It is aimed at a wide audience, including researchers at universities and research institutions, graduate and doctoral students, practitioners, data scientists and employees in public statistical institutions.

Originally published in 1984. This book brings together a reasonably complete set of results regarding the use of Constraint Item estimation procedures under the assumption of accurate specification. The analysis covers the case of all explanatory variables being non-stochastic as well as the case of identified simultaneous equations, with error terms known and unknown. Particular emphasis is given to the derivation of criteria for choosing the Constraint Item. Part 1 looks at the best CI estimators and Part 2 examines equation by equation estimation, considering forecasting accuracy.

The analysis, prediction and interpolation of economic and other time series has a long history and many applications. Major new developments are taking place, driven partly by the need to analyze financial data. The five papers in this book describe those new developments from various viewpoints and are intended to be an introduction accessible to readers from a range of backgrounds. The book arises out of the second Seminaire European de Statistique (SEMSTAT) held in Oxford in December 1994. This brought together young statisticians from across Europe, and a series of introductory lectures were given on topics at the forefront of current research activity. The lectures form the basis for the five papers contained in the book. The papers by Shephard and Johansen deal respectively with time series models for volatility, i.e. variance heterogeneity, and with cointegration. Clements and Hendry analyze the nature of prediction errors. A complementary review paper by Laird gives a biometrical view of the analysis of short time series. Finally Astrup and Nielsen give a mathematical introduction to the study of option pricing. Whilst the book draws its primary motivation from financial series and from multivariate econometric modelling, the applications are potentially much broader.

Originally published in 1979. This study focuses primarily on the development of a structural model for the U. S. Government securities market, ie. the specification and estimation of the demands for disaggregated maturity classes of U.S. Government securities by the individual investor groups participating in the market. A particularly important issue addressed involves the extent of the substitution relationship among different maturity classes of U.S. Government securities.

Originally published in 1974. This book provides a rigorous and detailed introductory treatment of the theory of difference equations and their applications in the construction and analysis of dynamic economic models. It explains the theory of linear difference equations and various types of dynamic economic models are then analysed. Including plenty of examples of application throughout the text, it will be of use to those working in macroeconomics and econometrics.

This book undertakes a theoretical and econometric analysis of intense economic growth in selected European countries during the end of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty first. Focusing on the accelerated economic growth that occurred in Ireland, the Netherlands, Spain, and Turkey, this book investigates the determinants and consequences of this "miracle" growth and discusses them in context of growth and development processes observed in European market-type economies after the World War II. Using imperfect knowledge economics (IKE) as a theoretical framework to interpret the empirical results, this book provides a fresh theoretical perspective in comparison with current Neo-classical, Keynesian and institutional paradigms. With this systematic approach, the authors seek to provide a unified methodology for evaluating the phenomenon of intense economic growth that has heretofore been missing from the discipline. Combining diverse theoretical and methodological strategies to provide a holistic understanding of the historical process of economic change, this volume will be of interest to students and scholars of economic growth, econometrics, political economy, and the new institutional economics as well as policymakers.

Reissuing works originally published between 1929 and 1991, this collection of 17 volumes presents a variety of considerations on Econometrics, from introductions to specific research works on particular industries. With some volumes on models for macroeconomics and international economies, this is a widely interesting set of economic texts. Input/Output methods and databases are looked at in some volumes while others look at Bayesian techniques, linear and non-linear models. This set will be of use to those in industry and business studies, geography and sociology as well as politics and economics.

Notions of probability and uncertainty have been increasingly prominant in modern economics. This book considers the philosophical and practical difficulties inherent in integrating these concepts into realistic economic situations. It outlines and evaluates the major developments, indicating where further work is needed.
This book addresses:
* probability, utility and rationality within current economic thought and practice
* concepts of ignorance and indeterminancy
* experimental economics
* econometrics, with particular reference inference and estimation.

Originally published in 1987. This collection of original papers deals with various issues of specification in the context of the linear statistical model. The volume honours the early econometric work of Donald Cochrane, late Dean of Economics and Politics at Monash University in Australia. The chapters focus on problems associated with autocorrelation of the error term in the linear regression model and include appraisals of early work on this topic by Cochrane and Orcutt. The book includes an extensive survey of autocorrelation tests; some exact finite-sample tests; and some issues in preliminary test estimation. A wide range of other specification issues is discussed, including the implications of random regressors for Bayesian prediction; modelling with joint conditional probability functions; and results from duality theory. There is a major survey chapter dealing with specification tests for non-nested models, and some of the applications discussed by the contributors deal with the British National Accounts and with Australian financial and housing markets.

Originally published in 1991. The dilemma of solid and hazardous waste disposal in an environmentally safe manner has become a global problem. This book presents a modern approach to economic and operations research modelling in urban and regional waste management with an international perspective. Location and space economics are discussed along with transportation, technology, health hazards, capacity levels, political realities and the linkage with general global economic systems. The algorithms and models developed are then applied to two major cities in the world by way of case study example of the use of these systems.

This book provides a coherent description of the main concepts and statistical methods used to analyse economic performance. The focus is on measures of performance that are of practical relevance to policy makers. Most, if not all, of these measures can be viewed as measures of productivity and/or efficiency. Linking fields as diverse as index number theory, data envelopment analysis and stochastic frontier analysis, the book explains how to compute measures of input and output quantity change that are consistent with measurement theory. It then discusses ways in which meaningful measures of productivity change can be decomposed into measures of technical progress, environmental change, and different types of efficiency change. The book is aimed at graduate students, researchers, statisticians, accountants and economists working in universities, regulatory authorities, government departments and private firms. The book contains many numerical examples. Computer codes and datasets are available on a companion website.

Originally published in 1984. This book addresses the economics of the changing mineral industry, which is highly affected by energy economics. The study estimates, in quantitative terms, the short- to mid-term consequences of rising energy prices alongside falling ore quality for the copper and aluminum industries. The effects of changing cost factors on substitution between metals is assessed as is the potential for relying on increased recycling. Copper and aluminum industry problems should be representative of those faced by the mineral processing sector as a whole. Two complex econometric models presented here produce forecasts for the industries and the book discusses and reviews other econometric commodity models.

The global financial crisis saw many Eurozone countries bearing excessive public debt. This led the government bond yields of some peripheral countries to rise sharply, resulting in the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis. The debt crisis is characterized by its immediate spread from Greece, the country of origin, to its neighbouring countries and the connection between the Eurozone banking sector and the public sector debt. Addressing these interesting features, this book sheds light on the impacts of the crisis on various financial markets in Europe. This book is among the first to conduct a thorough empirical analysis of the European sovereign debt crisis. It analyses, using advanced econometric methodologies, why the crisis escalated so prominently, having significant impacts on a wide range of financial markets, and was not just limited to government bond markets. The book also allows one to understand the consequences and the overall impact of such a debt crisis, enabling investors and policymakers to formulate diversification strategies, and create suitable regulatory frameworks.

"Mathematics in Economics" is a valuable guide to the mathematical apparatus that underlies so much of modern economics. The approach to mathematics is rigorous and the mathematical techniques are always presented in the context of the economics problem they are used to solve. Students can therefore gain insight into, and familiarity with, the mathematical models and methods involved in the transition from "phenomenon" to quantitative statement.

Topics covered include: Sets and NumbersMatrices and VectorsModelling Consumer ChoiceDiscrete VariablesFunctionsEquilibriumEigenvalues and EigenvectorsLimits and their UsesContinuity and Its UsesPartial DifferentiationThe GradientTaylor's Theorem - An Approximation ToolEconomic Dynamics: Differential Equations.Each chapter ends with exercises designed to help students understand and practice the techniques they have learnt. The author has provided solutions to selected problems so that the book will function as an effective teaching tool on introductory courses in mathematics for economics, quantitative methods and for mathematicians taking a first course in economics. "Mathematics in Economics" has been developed from a course taught jointly by Ken Binmore (Professor of Economics) and Adam Ostaszewski (Senior Lecturer in Mathematics).

First published in 1992, The Efficiency of New Issue Markets provides a theoretical discussion of the adverse selection model of the new issue market. It addresses the hypothesis that the method of distribution of new issues has an important bearing on the efficiency of these markets. In doing this, the book tests the efficiency of the Offer for Sale new issue market, which demonstrates the validity of the adverse selection model and contradicts the monopsony power hypothesis. This examines the relative efficiency of the new issue markets and in turn demonstrates the importance of distribution in determining relative efficiency. The book provides a comprehensive overview of under-pricing and through this assesses the efficiency of new issue markets.

This title was first published in 2003. This book provides a much-needed comprehensive and up-to-date treatise on financial distress modelling. Since many of the challenges facing researchers of financial distress can only be addressed by a totally new research design and modelling methodology, this book concentrates on extending the potential for bankruptcy analysis from single-equation modelling to multi-equation analysis. Essentially, the work provides an innovative new approach by comparing each firm with itself over time rather than testing specific hypotheses or improving predictive and classificatory accuracy. Added to this new design, a whole new methodology - or way of modelling the process - is applied in the form of a family of models of which the traditional single equation logit or MDA models is just a special case. Preliminary two-equation and three-equation models are presented and tested in the final chapters as a taste of things to come. The groundwork for a full treatise on these sorts of multi-equation systems is laid for further study - this family of models could be used as a basis for more specific applications to different industries and to test hypotheses concerning influential variables to bankruptcy risk.

Business Statistics: A Decision Making Approach provides students with an introduction to business statistics and to the analysis skills and techniques needed to make successful real-world business decisions. Written for students of all mathematical skill levels, the authors present concepts in a systematic and ordered way, drawing from their own experience as educators and consultants. Rooted in the theme that data are the starting point, Business Statistics champions the need to use and understand different types of data and data sources to be effective decision makers. This new edition integrates Microsoft Excel throughout as a way to work with statistical concepts and give students a resource that can be used in both their academic and professional careers.