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Rational Econometric Man - Transforming Structural Econometrics (Hardcover)
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Rational Econometric Man - Transforming Structural Econometrics (Hardcover)
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This is a book macroeconomists were waiting for - a lucid history
of macroeconometric model building. A must read.' - Willi Semmler,
New School for Social Research, US'The authors have succeeded in
orchestrating a lively debate over the scientific foundations of
structural econometrics. Their book deserves a broad readership.' -
From the foreword by Lawrence R. Klein 'The wide range of issues
brilliantly discussed, the entertaining and accessible language,
the sharpness of the authors' judgement and the constructive
critical mood makes this book recommended reading for anyone who
feels uneasy with the empirical scope and policy significance of
standard econometric methods and of mainstream economic models.' -
Alessandro Vercelli, University of Siena, Italy This challenging
and original book takes a fresh, innovative look at econometrics,
and re-examines the scientific standing of structural econometrics
as developed by the founders (Frisch and Tinbergen) and extended by
Haavelmo and the Cowles modellers (particularly Klein) during the
period 1930-1960. The authors begin by rethinking the scientific
foundations of structural econometrics, offering a way around the
problem of induction that also justifies the assumption of a data
generating mechanism', and of ways to model this. They go on to
explain how current critiques of the methodological foundations of
structural econometrics are direct consequences of implicitly
accepted but seriously flawed elements in neoclassical thinking. In
the final part they present their distinctive methodological
contribution: a blend of fieldwork and conceptual analysis designed
to ensure that their models are well grounded in reality, and at
the same time, conceptually coherent as well as statistically
adequate. In so doing, they outline a number of elements that will
be needed to develop a 'good' macroeconometric model of an advanced
economy. Rational Econometric Man will prove a stimulating and
thought-provoking read for scholars and researchers in the field of
economics, and, more specifically, heterodox economics. Contents:
Foreword by Lawrence R. Klein Introduction Part I: From Rational
Economic Man to Rational Econometric Man 1. Re-reading Hollis and
Nell 2. Haavelmo Reconsidered as Rational Econometric Man 3.
Induction and the Empiricist Account of General Laws 4. Variables,
Laws and Induction I: Are There Laws of Nature? 5. Variables, Laws
and Induction II: Scientific Variables and Scientific Laws in
Economics 6. The Concept of the 'Model' and the Methodology of
Model Building Part II: The Critiques and the Foundations 7.
Debating the Foundations: A New Perspective? 8. Scientific Issues
in Structural Econometrics 9. Haavelmo and Beyond: Probability,
Uncertainty, Specification and Stochasticism Part III: Structural
Econometrics in its Place: Mapping New Directions 10. Conceptual
Analysis, Fieldwork and the Methodology of Model Building 11.
Working with Open Models: Lawlike Relations and an Uncertain Future
Conclusion References Index
General
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