This Brief discusses impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Portuguese tourism sector. Taking into account real-world conditions and the importance of the tourism sector for the Portuguese economy, this book highlights the economic contexts of tourism in Portugal at the regional and municipal levels, discussing pre-pandemic economic frameworks and projecting potential implications for the future. Using data provided by Statistics Portugal, the Brief performs econometric analysis on three cases: new paradigms for overnight stays and guests, changes in tourism revenues and prospective alternatives, and a comparison of effects on changes in number of guests and overnight stays at the regional level. Providing cutting edge analysis of a dynamic global situation, this Brief will be useful for researchers interested in tourism economics and European economics as well as policymakers and industry professionals.

This book explores new topics in modern research on empirical corporate finance and applied accounting, especially the econometric analysis of microdata. Dubbed "financial microeconometrics" by the author, this concept unites both methodological and applied approaches. The book examines how quantitative methods can be applied in corporate finance and accounting research in order to predict companies getting into financial distress. Presented in a clear and straightforward manner, it also suggests methods for linking corporate governance to financial performance, and discusses what the determinants of accounting disclosures are. Exploring these questions by way of numerous practical examples, this book is intended for researchers, practitioners and students who are not yet familiar with the variety of approaches available for data analysis and microeconometrics. "This book on financial microeconometrics is an excellent starting point for research in corporate finance and accounting. In my view, the text is positioned between a narrative and a scientific treatise. It is based on a vast amount of literature but is not overloaded with formulae. My appreciation of financial microeconometrics has very much increased. The book is well organized and properly written. I enjoyed reading it." Wolfgang Marty, Senior Investment Strategist, AgaNola AG

In this compelling 1995 book, David Hendry and Mary Morgan bring together the classic papers of the pioneer econometricians. Together, these papers form the foundations of econometric thought. They are essential reading for anyone seeking to understand the aims, method and methodology of econometrics and the development of this statistical approach in economics. However, because they are technically straightforward, the book is also accessible to students and non-specialists. An editorial commentary places the readings in their historical context and indicates the continuing relevance of these early, yet highly sophisticated, works for current econometric analysis. While this book provides a companion volume to Mary Morgan's acclaimed The History of Econometric Ideas, the editors' commentary both adds to that earlier volume and also provides a stand-alone and synthetic account of the development of econometrics.

Econometrics can at first appear a highly technical subject, but it can also equip the practitioner with a useful skillset of smart ways to formulate research questions and collect data. Enjoyable Econometrics applies econometric methods to a variety of unusual and engaging research questions, often beyond the realm of economics, demonstrating the great potential of using such methods to understand a wide range of phenomena. Unlike the typical textbook approach, Enjoyable Econometrics follows in the footsteps of Freakonomics by posing interesting questions first before introducing the methodology to find the answers. Therefore, rather than equation-heavy sections based around complex methodologies, the reader is presented with chapters on 'Money' and 'Fashion, Art and Music'. Franses writes in a way that will enthuse and motivate the economics student embarking upon the essential study of econometrics. Indeed, the book shows that econometric methods can be applied to almost anything.

Nonlinear Dynamics and Economics, first published in 1997, presents developments in nonlinear economic dynamics along with related research from associated fields, including mathematics, statistics, biology, and physics. Specific areas covered include instability in economic theory, nonlinearity in financial markets, tests for nonlinearity and chaos, frequency domain methods, nonlinear business cycles, and nonlinear prediction and forecasting. This volume comprises the tenth in the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics series under the general editorship of William Barnett. This proceedings volume includes revisions of the most important papers presented at a conference held at the European University Institute in Florence on July 6-17, 1992, along with revisions of the related, invited papers presented at the annual meetings of the American Statistical Association held in San Francisco on August 8-12, 1993.

Based on economic knowledge and logical reasoning, this book proposes a solution to economic recessions and offers a route for societal change to end capitalism. The author starts with a brief review of the history of economics, and then questions and rejects the trend of recent decades that has seen econometrics replace economic theory. By reviewing the different schools of economic thought and by examining the limitations of existing theories to business cycles and economic growth, the author forms a new theory to explain cyclic economic growth. According to this theory, economic recessions result from innovation scarcity, which in turn results from the flawed design of the patent system. The author suggests a new design for the patent system and envisions that the new design would bring about large economic and societal changes. Under this new patent system, the synergy of the patent and capital markets would ensure that economic recessions could be avoided and that the economy would grow at the highest speed.

In this book Herman Bierens provides a mathematically rigorous treatment of a number of timely topics in advanced econometrics. His subjects include nonlinear estimation, maximum likelihood theory, ARMA and ARMAX models, unit roots and cointegration, and nonparametric regression, together with an extensive and thorough treatment of the necessary probability theory. Professor Bierens' study is uniquely self-contained, providing the reader with a selection of the latest developments in econometric theory, along with the required introductory material on each topic. It will be of great use to graduate students of econometrics and statistics, and is particularly suitable for self-tuition.

This book presents selected peer-reviewed contributions from the International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting, ITISE 2018, held in Granada, Spain, on September 19-21, 2018. The first three parts of the book focus on the theory of time series analysis and forecasting, and discuss statistical methods, modern computational intelligence methodologies, econometric models, financial forecasting, and risk analysis. In turn, the last three parts are dedicated to applied topics and include papers on time series analysis in the earth sciences, energy time series forecasting, and time series analysis and prediction in other real-world problems. The book offers readers valuable insights into the different aspects of time series analysis and forecasting, allowing them to benefit both from its sophisticated and powerful theory, and from its practical applications, which address real-world problems in a range of disciplines. The ITISE conference series provides a valuable forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest advances and implementations in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. It focuses on interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary research encompassing computer science, mathematics, statistics and econometrics.

Contemporary economists, when analyzing economic behavior of people, need to use the diversity of research methods and modern ways of discovering knowledge. The increasing popularity of using economic experiments requires the use of IT tools and quantitative methods that facilitate the analysis of the research material obtained as a result of the experiments and the formulation of correct conclusions. This proceedings volume presents problems in contemporary economics and provides innovative solutions using a range of quantitative and experimental tools. Featuring selected contributions presented at the 2018 Computational Methods in Experimental Economics Conference (CMEE 2018), this book provides a modern economic perspective on such important issues as: sustainable development, consumption, production, national wealth, the silver economy, behavioral finance, economic and non-economic factors determining the behavior of household members, consumer preferences, social campaigns, and neuromarketing. International case studies are also offered.

This two-volume work aims to present as completely as possible the methods of statistical inference with special reference to their economic applications. It is a well-integrated textbook presenting a wide diversity of models in a coherent and unified framework. The reader will find a description not only of the classical concepts and results of mathematical statistics, but also of concepts and methods recently developed for the specific needs of econometrics. Although the two volumes do not demand a high level of mathematical knowledge, they do draw on linear algebra and probability theory. The breadth of approaches and the extensive coverage of this two-volume work provide for a thorough and entirely self-contained course in modern economics. Volume 1 provides an introduction to general concepts and methods in statistics and econometrics, and goes on to cover estimation and prediction. Volume 2 focuses on testing, confidence regions, model selection, and asymptotic theory.

This two-volume work aims to present as completely as possible the methods of statistical inference with special reference to their economic applications. The reader will find a description not only of the classical concepts and results of mathematical statistics, but also of concepts and methods recently developed for the specific needs of econometrics. The authors have sought to avoid an overly technical presentation and go to some lengths to encourage an intuitive understanding of the results by providing numerous examples throughout. The breadth of approaches and the extensive coverage of the two volumes provide for a thorough and entirely self-contained course in modern econometrics. Volume 1 provides an introduction to general concepts and methods in statistics and econometrics, and goes on to cover estimation and prediction. Volume 2 focuses on testing, confidence regions, model selection, and asymptotic theory.

The book illustrates the use of spatial econometric models to analyze the economic resilience of regions to climate-related shocks. Although climate change is a global externality, climate anomalies can trigger locally disruptive shocks, whose adverse effects on economic growth are transmitted through neighbouring relationships (based on geography, trade, or technological bonds). After laying out the theoretical case for spatial analysis in the study of economic resilience, the book introduces spatial econometric models, their estimation and testing procedures, as well as applications of spatial econometrics in various domains. It then reviews the current literature on the role of space in the propagation of climate shocks, and discusses how adaptation and mitigation policies can leverage spatial dependencies, with a special focus on renewable energy technologies and agricultural productivity. It appeals to scholars of regional and spatial sciences and econometrics as well as those interested in the spatial effects of climate and environmental shocks.

This book captures the dynamic relationship between COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil prices and major stock indices as well as the crude oil prices and stock market volatility that have been caused due to outbreak of this pandemic. The pandemic has changed the world melodramatically and major world markets collapsed in the beginning, affecting major industries in an unprecedented way. The book will be useful to the researcher in the field of finance and economics, and policy makers both at government and private level, keeping in view the present state of economy throughout the world.

This book addresses the disparities that arise when measuring and modeling societal behavior and progress across the social sciences. It looks at why and how different disciplines and even researchers can use the same data and yet come to different conclusions about equality of opportunity, economic and social mobility, poverty and polarization, and conflict and segregation. Because societal behavior and progress exist only in the context of other key aspects, modeling becomes exponentially more complex as more of these aspects are factored into considerations. The content of this book transcends disciplinary boundaries, providing valuable information on measuring and modeling to economists, sociologists, and political scientists who are interested in data-based analysis of pressing social issues.

This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR, one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, has been focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis, and it started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China's major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-six quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and thirteen annual reports have been published. This report, the twenty-sixth quarterly report, has been presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on February 26, 2019. This conference was jointly held at Beijing by the CMR and the Economic Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency

This book discusses the need to carefully and prudently apply various regression techniques in order to obtain the full benefits. It also describes some of the techniques developed and used by the authors, presenting their innovative ideas regarding the formulation and estimation of regression decomposition models, hidden Markov chain, and the contribution of regressors in the set-theoretic approach, calorie poverty rate, and aggregate growth rate. Each of these techniques has applications that address a number of unanswered questions; for example, regression decomposition techniques reveal intra-household gender inequalities of consumption, intra-household allocation of resources and adult equivalent scales, while Hidden Markov chain models can forecast the results of future elections. Most of these procedures are presented using real-world data, and the techniques can be applied in other similar situations. Showing how difficult questions can be answered by developing simple models with simple interpretation of parameters, the book is a valuable resource for students and researchers in the field of model building.

This textbook will familiarize students in economics and business, as well as practitioners, with the basic principles, techniques, and applications of applied statistics, statistical testing, and multivariate data analysis. Drawing on practical examples from the business world, it demonstrates the methods of univariate, bivariate, and multivariate statistical analysis. The textbook covers a range of topics, from data collection and scaling to the presentation and simple univariate analysis of quantitative data, while also providing advanced analytical procedures for assessing multivariate relationships. Accordingly, it addresses all topics typically covered in university courses on statistics and advanced applied data analysis. In addition, it does not limit itself to presenting applied methods, but also discusses the related use of Excel, SPSS, and Stata.

This book presents the effects of integrating information and communication technologies (ICT) and economic processes in macroeconomic dynamics, finance, marketing, industrial policies, and in government economic strategy. The text explores modeling and applications in these fields and also describes, in a clear and accessible manner, the theories that guide the integration among information technology (IT), telecommunications, and the economy, while presenting examples of their applications. Current trends such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data technologies used in economics are also included. This volume is suitable for researchers, practitioners, and students working in economic theory and the computational social sciences.

This book is dedicated to the study of the term structures of the yields of zero-coupon bonds. The methods it describes differ from those usually found in the literature in that the time variable is not the term to maturity but the interest rate duration, or another convenient non-linear transformation of terms. This makes it possible to consider yield curves not only for a limited interval of term values, but also for the entire positive semiaxis of terms. The main focus is the comparative analysis of yield curves and forward curves and the analytical study of their features. Generalizations of yield term structures are studied where the dimension of the state space of the financial market is increased. In cases where the analytical approach is too cumbersome, or impossible, numerical techniques are used. This book will be of interest to financial analysts, financial market researchers, graduate students and PhD students.

The last decades have seen an increasing diversity of customer expectations and growing competitive pressure for a wide variety of industries. Customer segmentation and subsequent inventory rationing provide a way to cope with those customer demands while maintaining a competitive offer. The general idea resembles the yield management practised in the airline or hotel industries: Demand fulfilment for low priority customers might be refused or delayed in order to reserve stock for more important clients. This dissertation thesis from Karin Moellering provides a comprehensive introduction to inventory rationing. It gives an overview of the different approaches studied and identifies state-of-the-art rules. In a second step, the book particularly focuses on an easy-to-implement but highly efficient rationing strategy. For this strategy, a mathematical model is developed that allows for optimization under different objectives. Potential readership includes scholars of inventory control and management science, students interested in these areas as well as practitioners involved in formulating and implementing rationing strategies.

As most econometricians will readily agree, the data used in applied econometrics seldom provide accurate measurements for the pertinent theory's variables. Here, Bernt Stigum offers the first systematic and theoretically sound way of accounting for such inaccuracies. He and a distinguished group of contributors bridge econometrics and the philosophy of economics--two topics that seem worlds apart. They ask: How is a science of economics possible? The answer is elusive. Economic theory seems to be about abstract ideas or, it might be said, about toys in a toy community. How can a researcher with such tools learn anything about the social reality in which he or she lives? This book shows that an econometrician with the proper understanding of economic theory and the right kind of questions can gain knowledge about characteristic features of the social world. It addresses varied topics in both classical and Bayesian econometrics, offering ample evidence that its answer to the fundamental question is sound. The first book to comprehensively explore economic theory and econometrics simultaneously, Econometrics and the Philosophy of Economics represents an authoritative account of contemporary economic methodology. About a third of the chapters are authored or coauthored by Heather Anderson, Erik Biorn, Christophe Bontemps, Jeffrey A. Dubin, Harald E. Goldstein, Clive W.J. Granger, David F. Hendry, Herman Ruge-Jervell, Dale W. Jorgenson, Hans-Martin Krolzig, Nils Lid Hjort, Daniel L. McFadden, Grayham E. Mizon, Tore Schweder, Geir Storvik, and Herman K. van Dijk.

The aim of this book is to make more widely available a body of recent research activity that has become known as applied general equilibrium analysis. The central idea underlying this work is to convert the Walrasian general equilibrium structure (formalized in the 1950s by Kenneth Arrow, Gerard Debreu and others) from an abstract representation of an economy into realistic models of actual economies. Numerical, empirically based general equilibrium models can then be used to evaluate concrete policy options by specifying production and demand parameters and incorporating data reflective of real economies. Shoven and Whalley describe all aspects of developing applied general equilibrium models, including developing an appropriate equilibrium structure, calibrating the model, compiling counterfactual equilibria, and interpreting results. The authors contend that the Walrasian general equilibrium model provides an ideal framework for appraising the effects of policy changes on resource allocation, assessing who gains and who loses, and the policy impacts not well covered by empirical macro models. The applications in the book illustrate a number of ways in which fresh insights are provided in long standing policy controversies.

The History of Econometric Ideas covers the period from the late nineteenth century to the middle of the twentieth century, illustrating how economists first learned to harness statistical methods to measure and test the "laws" of economics. Though scholarly, Dr. Morgan's book is very accessible; it does not require a high level of prior statistical knowledge, and will be of interest to practicing statisticians and economists.

By bringing together results from the growing literature in econometrics on misspecification testing, this study provides theoretical analyses and convenient methods for the implementation of tests in applied work. Although the main emphasis is on the Lagrange multiplier principle, several other approaches are discussed and the relationships among different methods are examined. The author reviews general checks of model adequacy that do not involve the formulation of an alternative hypothesis. General and specific tests are discussed in the context of multiple regression models, systems of simultaneous equations, and models with qualitative or limited dependent variables. This wide-ranging but integrated book will be useful to a wide audience of applied and theoretical researchers, graduate students, and professional economists.