This book explores new topics in modern research on empirical corporate finance and applied accounting, especially the econometric analysis of microdata. Dubbed "financial microeconometrics" by the author, this concept unites both methodological and applied approaches. The book examines how quantitative methods can be applied in corporate finance and accounting research in order to predict companies getting into financial distress. Presented in a clear and straightforward manner, it also suggests methods for linking corporate governance to financial performance, and discusses what the determinants of accounting disclosures are. Exploring these questions by way of numerous practical examples, this book is intended for researchers, practitioners and students who are not yet familiar with the variety of approaches available for data analysis and microeconometrics. "This book on financial microeconometrics is an excellent starting point for research in corporate finance and accounting. In my view, the text is positioned between a narrative and a scientific treatise. It is based on a vast amount of literature but is not overloaded with formulae. My appreciation of financial microeconometrics has very much increased. The book is well organized and properly written. I enjoyed reading it." Wolfgang Marty, Senior Investment Strategist, AgaNola AG

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models play an important role in supporting public-policy making on such issues as trade, climate change and taxation. This significantly revised volume, keeping pace with the next-generation standard CGE model, is the only undergraduate-level introduction of its kind. The volume utilizes a graphical approach to explain the economic theory underlying a CGE model, and provides results from simple, small-scale CGE models to illustrate the links between theory and model outcomes. Its eleven hands-on exercises introduce modelling techniques that are applied to real-world economic problems. Students learn how to integrate their separate fields of economic study into a comprehensive, general equilibrium perspective as they develop their skills as producers or consumers of CGE-based analysis.

This book explores the possibility of using social media data for detecting socio-economic recovery activities. In the last decade, there have been intensive research activities focusing on social media during and after disasters. This approach, which views people's communication on social media as a sensor for real-time situations, has been widely adopted as the "people as sensor" approach. Furthermore, to improve recovery efforts after large-scale disasters, detecting communities' real-time recovery situations is essential, since conventional socio-economic recovery indicators, such as governmental statistics, are not published in real time. Thanks to its timeliness, using social media data can fill the gap. Motivated by this possibility, this book especially focuses on the relationships between people's communication on Twitter and Facebook pages, and socio-economic recovery activities as reflected in the used-car market data and the housing market data in the case of two major disasters: the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of 2011 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The book pursues an interdisciplinary approach, combining e.g. disaster recovery studies, crisis informatics, and economics. In terms of its contributions, firstly, the book sheds light on the "people as sensors" approach for detecting socio-economic recovery activities, which has not been thoroughly studied to date but has the potential to improve situation awareness during the recovery phase. Secondly, the book proposes new socio-economic recovery indicators: used-car market data and housing market data. Thirdly, in the context of using social media during the recovery phase, the results demonstrate the importance of distinguishing between social media data posted both by people who are at or near disaster-stricken areas and by those who are farther away.

Based on economic knowledge and logical reasoning, this book proposes a solution to economic recessions and offers a route for societal change to end capitalism. The author starts with a brief review of the history of economics, and then questions and rejects the trend of recent decades that has seen econometrics replace economic theory. By reviewing the different schools of economic thought and by examining the limitations of existing theories to business cycles and economic growth, the author forms a new theory to explain cyclic economic growth. According to this theory, economic recessions result from innovation scarcity, which in turn results from the flawed design of the patent system. The author suggests a new design for the patent system and envisions that the new design would bring about large economic and societal changes. Under this new patent system, the synergy of the patent and capital markets would ensure that economic recessions could be avoided and that the economy would grow at the highest speed.

This book presents selected peer-reviewed contributions from the International Conference on Time Series and Forecasting, ITISE 2018, held in Granada, Spain, on September 19-21, 2018. The first three parts of the book focus on the theory of time series analysis and forecasting, and discuss statistical methods, modern computational intelligence methodologies, econometric models, financial forecasting, and risk analysis. In turn, the last three parts are dedicated to applied topics and include papers on time series analysis in the earth sciences, energy time series forecasting, and time series analysis and prediction in other real-world problems. The book offers readers valuable insights into the different aspects of time series analysis and forecasting, allowing them to benefit both from its sophisticated and powerful theory, and from its practical applications, which address real-world problems in a range of disciplines. The ITISE conference series provides a valuable forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest advances and implementations in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. It focuses on interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary research encompassing computer science, mathematics, statistics and econometrics.

Contemporary economists, when analyzing economic behavior of people, need to use the diversity of research methods and modern ways of discovering knowledge. The increasing popularity of using economic experiments requires the use of IT tools and quantitative methods that facilitate the analysis of the research material obtained as a result of the experiments and the formulation of correct conclusions. This proceedings volume presents problems in contemporary economics and provides innovative solutions using a range of quantitative and experimental tools. Featuring selected contributions presented at the 2018 Computational Methods in Experimental Economics Conference (CMEE 2018), this book provides a modern economic perspective on such important issues as: sustainable development, consumption, production, national wealth, the silver economy, behavioral finance, economic and non-economic factors determining the behavior of household members, consumer preferences, social campaigns, and neuromarketing. International case studies are also offered.

The book illustrates the use of spatial econometric models to analyze the economic resilience of regions to climate-related shocks. Although climate change is a global externality, climate anomalies can trigger locally disruptive shocks, whose adverse effects on economic growth are transmitted through neighbouring relationships (based on geography, trade, or technological bonds). After laying out the theoretical case for spatial analysis in the study of economic resilience, the book introduces spatial econometric models, their estimation and testing procedures, as well as applications of spatial econometrics in various domains. It then reviews the current literature on the role of space in the propagation of climate shocks, and discusses how adaptation and mitigation policies can leverage spatial dependencies, with a special focus on renewable energy technologies and agricultural productivity. It appeals to scholars of regional and spatial sciences and econometrics as well as those interested in the spatial effects of climate and environmental shocks.

This book captures the dynamic relationship between COVID-19 pandemic, crude oil prices and major stock indices as well as the crude oil prices and stock market volatility that have been caused due to outbreak of this pandemic. The pandemic has changed the world melodramatically and major world markets collapsed in the beginning, affecting major industries in an unprecedented way. The book will be useful to the researcher in the field of finance and economics, and policy makers both at government and private level, keeping in view the present state of economy throughout the world.

This book addresses the disparities that arise when measuring and modeling societal behavior and progress across the social sciences. It looks at why and how different disciplines and even researchers can use the same data and yet come to different conclusions about equality of opportunity, economic and social mobility, poverty and polarization, and conflict and segregation. Because societal behavior and progress exist only in the context of other key aspects, modeling becomes exponentially more complex as more of these aspects are factored into considerations. The content of this book transcends disciplinary boundaries, providing valuable information on measuring and modeling to economists, sociologists, and political scientists who are interested in data-based analysis of pressing social issues.

This report is a partial result of the China's Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR, one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, has been focusing on China's economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis, and it started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005. Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China's major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-six quarterly reports on China's macroeconomic outlook have been presented and thirteen annual reports have been published. This report, the twenty-sixth quarterly report, has been presented at the Forum on China's Macroeconomic Outlook and Press Conference of CQMM on February 26, 2019. This conference was jointly held at Beijing by the CMR and the Economic Information Daily at Xinhua News Agency

This book discusses the need to carefully and prudently apply various regression techniques in order to obtain the full benefits. It also describes some of the techniques developed and used by the authors, presenting their innovative ideas regarding the formulation and estimation of regression decomposition models, hidden Markov chain, and the contribution of regressors in the set-theoretic approach, calorie poverty rate, and aggregate growth rate. Each of these techniques has applications that address a number of unanswered questions; for example, regression decomposition techniques reveal intra-household gender inequalities of consumption, intra-household allocation of resources and adult equivalent scales, while Hidden Markov chain models can forecast the results of future elections. Most of these procedures are presented using real-world data, and the techniques can be applied in other similar situations. Showing how difficult questions can be answered by developing simple models with simple interpretation of parameters, the book is a valuable resource for students and researchers in the field of model building.

This textbook will familiarize students in economics and business, as well as practitioners, with the basic principles, techniques, and applications of applied statistics, statistical testing, and multivariate data analysis. Drawing on practical examples from the business world, it demonstrates the methods of univariate, bivariate, and multivariate statistical analysis. The textbook covers a range of topics, from data collection and scaling to the presentation and simple univariate analysis of quantitative data, while also providing advanced analytical procedures for assessing multivariate relationships. Accordingly, it addresses all topics typically covered in university courses on statistics and advanced applied data analysis. In addition, it does not limit itself to presenting applied methods, but also discusses the related use of Excel, SPSS, and Stata.

This is the perfect (and essential) supplement for all econometrics classes--from a rigorous first undergraduate course, to a first master's, to a PhD course.
Explains what is going on in textbooks full of proofs and formulas
Offers intuition, skepticism, insights, humor, and practical advice (dos and don'ts)
Contains new chapters that cover instrumental variables and computational considerations
Includes additional information on GMM, nonparametrics, and an introduction to wavelets

This book presents the effects of integrating information and communication technologies (ICT) and economic processes in macroeconomic dynamics, finance, marketing, industrial policies, and in government economic strategy. The text explores modeling and applications in these fields and also describes, in a clear and accessible manner, the theories that guide the integration among information technology (IT), telecommunications, and the economy, while presenting examples of their applications. Current trends such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data technologies used in economics are also included. This volume is suitable for researchers, practitioners, and students working in economic theory and the computational social sciences.

This book is dedicated to the study of the term structures of the yields of zero-coupon bonds. The methods it describes differ from those usually found in the literature in that the time variable is not the term to maturity but the interest rate duration, or another convenient non-linear transformation of terms. This makes it possible to consider yield curves not only for a limited interval of term values, but also for the entire positive semiaxis of terms. The main focus is the comparative analysis of yield curves and forward curves and the analytical study of their features. Generalizations of yield term structures are studied where the dimension of the state space of the financial market is increased. In cases where the analytical approach is too cumbersome, or impossible, numerical techniques are used. This book will be of interest to financial analysts, financial market researchers, graduate students and PhD students.

The last decades have seen an increasing diversity of customer expectations and growing competitive pressure for a wide variety of industries. Customer segmentation and subsequent inventory rationing provide a way to cope with those customer demands while maintaining a competitive offer. The general idea resembles the yield management practised in the airline or hotel industries: Demand fulfilment for low priority customers might be refused or delayed in order to reserve stock for more important clients. This dissertation thesis from Karin Moellering provides a comprehensive introduction to inventory rationing. It gives an overview of the different approaches studied and identifies state-of-the-art rules. In a second step, the book particularly focuses on an easy-to-implement but highly efficient rationing strategy. For this strategy, a mathematical model is developed that allows for optimization under different objectives. Potential readership includes scholars of inventory control and management science, students interested in these areas as well as practitioners involved in formulating and implementing rationing strategies.

As most econometricians will readily agree, the data used in applied econometrics seldom provide accurate measurements for the pertinent theory's variables. Here, Bernt Stigum offers the first systematic and theoretically sound way of accounting for such inaccuracies. He and a distinguished group of contributors bridge econometrics and the philosophy of economics--two topics that seem worlds apart. They ask: How is a science of economics possible? The answer is elusive. Economic theory seems to be about abstract ideas or, it might be said, about toys in a toy community. How can a researcher with such tools learn anything about the social reality in which he or she lives? This book shows that an econometrician with the proper understanding of economic theory and the right kind of questions can gain knowledge about characteristic features of the social world. It addresses varied topics in both classical and Bayesian econometrics, offering ample evidence that its answer to the fundamental question is sound. The first book to comprehensively explore economic theory and econometrics simultaneously, Econometrics and the Philosophy of Economics represents an authoritative account of contemporary economic methodology. About a third of the chapters are authored or coauthored by Heather Anderson, Erik Biorn, Christophe Bontemps, Jeffrey A. Dubin, Harald E. Goldstein, Clive W.J. Granger, David F. Hendry, Herman Ruge-Jervell, Dale W. Jorgenson, Hans-Martin Krolzig, Nils Lid Hjort, Daniel L. McFadden, Grayham E. Mizon, Tore Schweder, Geir Storvik, and Herman K. van Dijk.

Variations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth examination of the standard theories and latest research in exchange-rate economics. Covering a vast swath of theoretical and empirical work, the book explores established theories of exchange-rate determination using macroeconomic fundamentals, and presents unique microbased approaches that combine the insights of microstructure models with the macroeconomic forces driving currency trading.

Macroeconomic models have long assumed that agents--households, firms, financial institutions, and central banks--all have the same information about the structure of the economy and therefore hold the same expectations and uncertainties regarding foreign currency returns. Microbased models, however, look at how heterogeneous information influences the trading decisions of agents and becomes embedded in exchange rates. Replicating key features of actual currency markets, these microbased models generate a rich array of empirical predictions concerning trading patterns and exchange-rate dynamics that are strongly supported by data. The models also show how changing macroeconomic conditions exert an influence on short-term exchange-rate dynamics via their impact on currency trading.

Designed for graduate courses in international macroeconomics, international finance, and finance, and as a go-to reference for researchers in international economics, "Exchange-Rate Dynamics" guides readers through a range of literature on exchange-rate determination, offering fresh insights for further reading and research.Comprehensive and in-depth examination of the latest research in exchange-rate economics Outlines theoretical and empirical research across the spectrum of modeling approaches Presents new results on the importance of currency trading in exchange-rate determination Provides new perspectives on long-standing puzzles in exchange-rate economics End-of-chapter questions cement key ideas

This book examines whether continuous-time models in frictionless financial economies can be well approximated by discrete-time models. It specifically looks to answer the question: in what sense and to what extent does the famous Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) continuous-time model of financial markets idealize more realistic discrete-time models of those markets? While it is well known that the BSM model is an idealization of discrete-time economies where the stock price process is driven by a binomial random walk, it is less known that the BSM model idealizes discrete-time economies whose stock price process is driven by more general random walks. Starting with the basic foundations of discrete-time and continuous-time models, David M. Kreps takes the reader through to this important insight with the goal of lowering the entry barrier for many mainstream financial economists, thus bringing less-technical readers to a better understanding of the connections between BSM and nearby discrete-economies.

In the past few decades, methods of linear algebra have become central to economic analysis, replacing older tools such as the calculus. David Gale has provided the first complete and lucid treatment of important topics in mathematical economics which can be analyzed by linear models. This self-contained work requires few mathematical prerequisites and provides all necessary groundwork in the first few chapters. After introducing basic geometric concepts of vectors and vector spaces, Gale proceeds to give the main theorems on linear inequalities--theorems underpinning the theory of games, linear programming, and the Neumann model of growth. He then explores such subjects as linear programming; the theory of two-person games; static and dynamic theories of linear exchange models, including problems of equilibrium prices and dynamic stability; and methods of play, optimal strategies, and solutions of matrix games. This book should prove an invaluable reference source and text for mathematicians, engineers, economists, and those in many related areas.

Researchers often have difficulties collecting enough data to test their hypotheses, either because target groups are small or hard to access, or because data collection entails prohibitive costs. Such obstacles may result in data sets that are too small for the complexity of the statistical model needed to answer the research question. This unique book provides guidelines and tools for implementing solutions to issues that arise in small sample research. Each chapter illustrates statistical methods that allow researchers to apply the optimal statistical model for their research question when the sample is too small. This essential book will enable social and behavioral science researchers to test their hypotheses even when the statistical model required for answering their research question is too complex for the sample sizes they can collect. The statistical models in the book range from the estimation of a population mean to models with latent variables and nested observations, and solutions include both classical and Bayesian methods. All proposed solutions are described in steps researchers can implement with their own data and are accompanied with annotated syntax in R. The methods described in this book will be useful for researchers across the social and behavioral sciences, ranging from medical sciences and epidemiology to psychology, marketing, and economics.

The volume highlights the state-of-the-art knowledge (including data analysis) of productivity, inequality and efficiency analysis. It showcases a selection of the best papers from the 9th North American Productivity Workshop. These papers are relevant to academia, but also to public and private sectors in terms of the challenges that firms, financial institutions, governments, and individuals may face when dealing with economic and education related activities that lead to increase or decrease of productivity. The volume also aims to bring together ideas from different parts of the world about the challenges those local economies and institutions may face when changes in productivity are observed. These contributions focus on theoretical and empirical research in areas including productivity, production theory and efficiency measurement in economics, management science, operation research, public administration, and education. The North American Productivity Workshop (NAPW) brings together academic scholars and practitioners in the field of productivity and efficiency analysis from all over the world, and this proceedings volume is a reflection of this mission. The papers in this volume also address general topics as education, health, energy, finance, agriculture, transport, utilities, and economic development, among others. The editors are comprised of the 2016 local organizers, program committee members, and celebrated guest conference speakers.

This book describes a maximally simple market risk model that is still practical and main risk measures like the value-at-risk and the expected shortfall. It outlines the model's (i) underlying math, (ii) daily operation, and (iii) implementation, while stripping away statistical overhead to keep the concepts accessible. The author selects and weighs the various model features, motivating the choices under real-world constraints, and addresses the evermore important handling of regulatory requirements. The book targets not only practitioners new to the field but also experienced market risk operators by suggesting useful data analysis procedures and implementation details. It furthermore addresses market risk consumers such as managers, traders, and compliance officers by making the model behavior intuitively transparent. A very useful guide to the theoretical and practical aspects of implementing and operating a risk-monitoring system for a mid-size financial institution. It sets a common body of knowledge to facilitate communication between risk managers, computer and investment specialists by bridging their diverse backgrounds. Giovanni Barone-Adesi - Professor, Universita della Svizzera italiana This unassuming and insightful book starts from the basics and plainly brings the reader up to speed on both theory and implementation. Shane Hegarty - Director Trade Floor Risk Management, Scotiabank Visit the book's website at www.value-at-risk.com.

This textbook discusses central statistical concepts and their use in business and economics. To endure the hardship of abstract statistical thinking, business and economics students need to see interesting applications at an early stage. Accordingly, the book predominantly focuses on exercises, several of which draw on simple applications of non-linear theory. The main body presents central ideas in a simple, straightforward manner; the exposition is concise, without sacrificing rigor. The book bridges the gap between theory and applications, with most exercises formulated in an economic context. Its simplicity of style makes the book suitable for students at any level, and every chapter starts out with simple problems. Several exercises, however, are more challenging, as they are devoted to the discussion of non-trivial economic problems where statistics plays a central part.

This book examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis. It also assesses the impact of the US economy's eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth. The book concludes by extending its focus to the role of US monetary policy, capital flows and rand/US dollar volatility on the South African economy.