This book, and its companion volume in the Econometric Society Monographs series (ESM number 32), present a collection of papers by Clive W. J. Granger. His contributions to economics and econometrics, many of them seminal, span more than four decades and touch on all aspects of time series analysis. The papers assembled in this volume explore topics in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. Those in the companion volume investigate themes in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. The two volumes contain the original articles as well as an introduction written by the editors.

This book, and its companion volume, present a collection of papers by Clive W.J. Granger. His contributions to economics and econometrics, many of them seminal, span more than four decades and touch on all aspects of time series analysis. The papers assembled in this volume explore topics in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. Those in the companion volume investigate themes in causality, integration and cointegration, and long memory. The two volumes contain the original articles as well as an introduction written by the editors.

"Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics" is comprised of landmark essays by the world's leading scholars and provides authoritative and definitive guidance in key areas of econometrics. With definitive contributions on the subject, the Handbook is an essential source of reference for professional econometricians, economists, researchers and students.
Volume I covers developments in theoretical econometrics, including essays on the methodology and history of econometrics, developments in time-series and cross-section econometrics, modelling with integrated variables, Bayesian econometrics, simulation methods and a selection of special topics.

When John Maynard Keynes likened Jan Tinbergen's early work in econometrics to black magic and alchemy, he was expressing a widely held view of a new discipline. However, even after half a century of practical work and theorizing by some of the most accomplished social scientists, Keynes' comments are still repeated today. This book assesses the foundations and development of econometrics and sets out a basis for the reconstruction of the foundations of econometric inference by examining the various interpretations of probability theory that underlie econometrics.

The theory of competition has held a central place in economic analysis since Adam Smith. This book, written by one of the most distinguished of contemporary economic theorists, reports on a major research program to provide strategic foundations for the theory of perfect competition. Beginning with a concise survey of how the theory of competition has evolved, Gale makes extensive and rigorous use of dynamic matching and bargaining models to provide a more complete description of how a competitive equlibrium is achieved. Whereas economists have made use of a macroscopic description of markets in which certain behavioral characteristics, such as price-taking behavior, are taken for granted, Gale uses game theory to re-evaluate this assumption, beginning with individual agents and modelling their strategic interaction. A strategic foundation for competitive equilibrium shows how such interaction leads to competitive, price-taking behavior. Essential reading for graduate courses in game theory and general equilibrium.

Although many of the models commonly used in empirical finance are linear, the nature of financial data suggests that non-linear models are more appropriate for forecasting and accurately describing returns and volatility. The enormous number of non-linear time series models appropriate for modeling and forecasting economic time series models makes choosing the best model for a particular application daunting. This classroom-tested advanced undergraduate and graduate textbook, first published in 2000, provides a rigorous treatment of recently developed non-linear models, including regime-switching and artificial neural networks. The focus is on the potential applicability for describing and forecasting financial asset returns and their associated volatility. The models are analysed in detail and are not treated as 'black boxes'. Illustrated using a wide range of financial data, drawn from sources including the financial markets of Tokyo, London and Frankfurt.

Co-integration, equilibrium and equilibrium correction are key concepts in modern applications of econometrics to real world problems. This book provides direction and guidance to the now vast literature facing students and graduate economists. Econometric theory is linked to practical issues such as how to identify equilibrium relationships, how to deal with structural breaks associated with regime changes and what to do when variables are of different orders of integration.

Commerce, Complexity, and Evolution is a significant contribution to the new paradigm straddling economics, finance, marketing, and management, which acknowledges that commercial systems are evolutionary systems, and must therefore be analyzed using evolutionary tools. Evolutionary systems display complicated behaviors that are to a significant degree generated endogenously, rather than being solely the product of exogenous shocks, hence the conjunction of complexity with evolution. The papers in this volume consider a wide range of systems, from the entire economy at one extreme to the behavior of single markets at the other.

In the last 20 years, econometric theory on panel data has developed rapidly, particularly for analyzing common behaviors among individuals over time. Meanwhile, the statistical methods employed by applied researchers have not kept up-to-date. This book attempts to fill in this gap by teaching researchers how to use the latest panel estimation methods correctly. Almost all applied economics articles use panel data or panel regressions. However, many empirical results from typical panel data analyses are not correctly executed. This book aims to help applied researchers to run panel regressions correctly and avoid common mistakes. The book explains how to model cross-sectional dependence, how to estimate a few key common variables, and how to identify them. It also provides guidance on how to separate out the long-run relationship and common dynamic and idiosyncratic dynamic relationships from a set of panel data. Aimed at applied researchers who want to learn about panel data econometrics by running statistical software, this book provides clear guidance and is supported by a full range of online teaching and learning materials. It includes practice sections on MATLAB, STATA, and GAUSS throughout, along with short and simple econometric theories on basic panel regressions for those who are unfamiliar with econometric theory on traditional panel regressions.

Applied Econometrics: A Practical Guide is an extremely user-friendly and application-focused book on econometrics. Unlike many econometrics textbooks which are heavily theoretical on abstractions, this book is perfect for beginners and promises simplicity and practicality to the understanding of econometric models. Written in an easy-to-read manner, the book begins with hypothesis testing and moves forth to simple and multiple regression models. It also includes advanced topics: Endogeneity and Two-stage Least Squares Simultaneous Equations Models Panel Data Models Qualitative and Limited Dependent Variable Models Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models Autocorrelation and ARCH/GARCH Models Unit Root and Cointegration The book also illustrates the use of computer software (EViews, SAS and R) for economic estimating and modeling. Its practical applications make the book an instrumental, go-to guide for solid foundation in the fundamentals of econometrics. In addition, this book includes excerpts from relevant articles published in top-tier academic journals. This integration of published articles helps the readers to understand how econometric models are applied to real-world use cases.

The generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation has emerged over the past decade as providing a ready to use, flexible tool of application to a large number of econometric and economic models by relying on mild, plausible assumptions. The principal objective of this volume, the first devoted entirely to the GMM methodology, is to offer a complete and up to date presentation of the theory of GMM estimation as well as insights into the use of these methods in empirical studies. It is also designed to serve as a unified framework for teaching estimation theory in econometrics. Contributors to the volume include well-known authorities in the field based in North America, the UK/Europe, and Australia.

Over the past two decades, experimental economics has moved from a fringe activity to become a standard tool for empirical research. With experimental economics now regarded as part of the basic tool-kit for applied economics, this book demonstrates how controlled experiments can be a useful in providing evidence relevant to economic research. Professors Jacquemet and L'Haridon take the standard model in applied econometrics as a basis to the methodology of controlled experiments. Methodological discussions are illustrated with standard experimental results. This book provides future experimental practitioners with the means to construct experiments that fit their research question, and new comers with an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of controlled experiments. Graduate students and academic researchers working in the field of experimental economics will be able to learn how to undertake, understand and criticise empirical research based on lab experiments, and refer to specific experiments, results or designs completed with case study applications.

Ragnar Frisch (1895-1973) received the first Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Science together with Jan Tinbergen in 1969 for having played an important role in ensuring that mathematical techniques figure prominently in modern economic analysis. Frisch was also a co-founder of the Econometric Society in 1930, the inaugural editor of its journal Econometrica for over 20 years, and a major figure in Norwegian academic life. This collection of essays derived from the centennial symposium which marked Frisch's birth explores his contributions to econometrics and other key fields in the discipline as well as the results of new research. Contributors include eminent scholars from Europe, the United Kingdom and North America who investigate themes in utility measurement, production theory, microeconomic policy, econometric methods, macrodynamics, and macroeconomic planning.

Time series analysis has undergone many changes during recent years with the advent of unit roots and cointegration. This textbook by G. S. Maddala and In-Moo Kim is based on a successful lecture program and provides a comprehensive review of these topics as well as structural change. G. S. Maddala is one of the most distinguished writers of graduate and undergraduate econometrics textbooks today and Unit Roots, Cointegration and Structural Change represents a major contribution that will be of interest both to specialists and graduate and undergraduate students.

This title, first published in 1970, provides a comprehensive account of the public finance system in Britain. As well as providing a concise outline of the monetary system as a basis for the realistic understanding of public finance, the author also describes the pattern of government expenditure and revenue in the twentieth-century and goes on to give a detailed account of the taxation system up until April 1969. This title will be of interest to students of monetary economics.

The Council of the European Union is the institutional heart of EU policy-making. But 'who gets what, when and how' in the Council? What are the dimensions of political conflict, and which countries form coalitions in the intense negotiations to achieve their desired policy outcomes? Focussing on collective decision-making in the Council between 1998 and 2007, this book provides a comprehensive account of these salient issues that lie at the heart of political accountability and legitimacy in the European Union. Based on a novel and unique dataset of estimates of government policy positions, salience and power in influencing deliberations, an explanatory model approximating the Nash-Bargaining solution is employed to predict the policy outcomes on ten policy domains of central importance to this institution. The book's analyses comprise investigations into the determinants of decision-making success, the architecture of the political space and the governments' coalition behavior.

This book has been written as a doctoral dissertation at the Department of Economics at the University of Konstanz. I am indebted to my supervisor Winfried Pohlmeier for providing a stimulating and pleasant research en- ronment and his continuous support during my doctoral studies. I strongly bene?tted from inspiring discussions with him, his valuable advices and he- ful comments regarding the contents and the exposition of this book. I am grateful to Luc Bauwens for refereeing my work as a second super- sor. Moreover, I wish to thank him for o?ering me the possibility of a research visit at the Center of Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) at the Universit e Catholique de Louvain. Important parts of this book have been conceived during this period. Similarly, I am grateful to Tony Hall who invited me for a research visit at the University of Technology, Sydney, and provided me access to an excellent database from the Australian Stock Exchange. I would like to thank him for his valuable support and the permission to use this data for empirical studies in this book. I wish to thank my colleagues at the University of Konstanz Frank G- hard, DieterHess, JoachimInkmann, MarkusJochmann, StefanKlotz, Sandra Lechner and Ingmar Nolte who o?ered me advice, inspiration, friendship and successfulco-operations.Moreover, Iamgratefultothestudentresearchass- tantsat the Chair of Econometrics at the University of Konstanz, particularly Magdalena Ramada Sarasola, Danielle Tucker and Nadine Warmuth who did a lot of editing wo

This book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.

Financial econometrics is one of the greatest on-going success stories of recent decades, as it has become one of the most active areas of research in econometrics. In this book, Michael Clements presents a clear and logical explanation of the key concepts and ideas of forecasts of economic and financial variables. He shows that forecasts of the single most likely outcome of an economic and financial variable are of limited value. Forecasts that provide more information on the expected likely ranges of outcomes are more relevant. This book provides a comprehensive treatment of the evaluation of different types of forecasts and draws out the parallels between the different approaches. It describes the methods of evaluating these more complex forecasts which provide a fuller description of the range of possible future outcomes.

The book inquires the consequences of speculative trading based on private information about financial asset markets. It presents an extensive and thorough discussion of theoretical and empirical methods used in previous studies on sequential trade models. The text also introduces a new framework for estimation and hypothesis testing that extends earlier work in the field substantially. Several market microstructure models in the spirit of Easley, Kiefer, O'Hara and Paperman (Journal of Finance, 1996) are reviewed. The common theme of these papers is the focus on the consequences of information based trading on the price setting behaviour of the market maker. Assuming that some traders have private information about a security's true value, a number of relations between observable quantities like the spread, the volume, timing of trades and volatility of asset prices can be established. The authors introduce a number of improved methods for estimation and hypothesis testing for sequential trade models and apply this econometric framework employing a high frequency transaction data set for a number of stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange during August 1996. All results that are necessary for understanding the empirical framework introduced are derived step-by-step. The text is ideally suited as a reference work on old and new results as well as a textbook for graduate courses on Market Microstructure Theory, Empirical Methods in Finance or Econometrics.

This volume presents a collection of readings which give the reader an idea of the nature and scope of unobserved components (UC) models and the methods used to deal with them. The book is intended to give a self-contained presentation of the methods and applicative issues. Harvey has made major contributions to this field and provides substantial introductions throughout the book to form a unified view of the literature. About the Series Advanced Texts in Econometrics is a distinguished and rapidly expanding series in which leading econometricians assess recent developments in such areas as stochastic probability, panel and time series data analysis, modeling, and cointegration. In both hardback and affordable paperback, each volume explains the nature and applicability of a topic in greater depth than possible in introductory textbooks or single journal articles. Each definitive work is formatted to be as accessible and convenient for those who are not familiar with the detailed primary literature.

Computational Models in the Economics of Environment and Development provides a step-by-step guide in designing, developing, and solving non-linear environment-development models. It accomplishes this by focusing on applied models, using real examples as case studies. Additionally, it gives examples of developing policy interventions based on quantitative model results. Finally, it uses a simple computer program, GAMS, to develop and solve models.

This book is targeted towards university lecturers and students in economic modeling and sustainable development, but is also of particular interest to researchers at sustainable development research institutes and policy makers at international sustainable development policy institutions such the World Bank, UNDP, and UNEP.

These books comprise papers examining the latest developments in economic theory, applied economics and econometrics presented at the Seventh World Congress of the Econometric Society in Tokyo in August 1995. The topics were carefully selected to represent the most active fields in the discipline over the past five years. Written by the leading authorities in their fields, each paper provides a unique survey of the current state of knowledge in economics. Designed to make the material accessible to a general audience of economists, these volumes should be helpul to anyone with a good undergraduate training in economics who wishes to follow new ideas and tendencies in the subject.

These books comprise papers examining the latest developments in economic theory, applied economics and econometrics presented at the Seventh World Congress of the Econometric Society in Tokyo in August 1995. The topics were carefully selected to represent the most active fields in the discipline over the past five years. Written by the leading authorities in their fields, eac h paper provides a unique survey of the current state of knowledge in economics. Designed to make the material accessible to a general audience of economists, these volumes should be helpul to anyone with a good undergraduate training in economics who wishes to follow new ideas and tendencies in the subject.

The first volume of three, this text comprises papers examining the latest developments in economic theory, applied economics and econometrics presented at the Seventh World Congress of the Econometric Society in Tokyo in August 1995. The topics were carefully selected to represent the most active fields in the discipline since 1990. Written by the leading authorities in their fields, each paper provides a survey of the current state of knowledge in economics. Designed to make the material accessible to a general audience of economists, these volumes should be helpful to anyone with a good undergraduate training in economics who wishes to follow new ideas and tendencies in the subject.