This book examines the consequences of misspecifications ranging from the fundamental to the nonexistent for the interpretation of likelihood-based methods of statistical estimation and interference. Professor White first explores the underlying motivation for maximum-likelihood estimation, treats the interpretation of the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) for misspecified probability models, and gives the conditions under which parameters of interest can be consistently estimated despite misspecification, and the consequences of misspecification, for hypothesis testing in estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix of the parameters. Although the theory presented in the book is motivated by econometric problems, its applicability is by no means restricted to economics. Subject to defined limitations, the theory applies to any scientific context in which statistical analysis is conducted using approximate models.

First published in 1996, Dynamic Disequilibrium Modeling presents some surveys and developments in dynamic disequilibrium and continuous time econometric modeling along with related research from associated fields. Specific areas covered include applications in business cycles and growth, tests for nonlinearity, rationing and disequilibrium dynamics, and demographic and international applications. The contents of this volume comprise the proceedings of the ninth conference in The International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics series under the general editorship of William Barnett. The proceedings volume includes the most important papers presented at a conference held at the University of Munich on August 31-September 4, 1993.

In March 1998 the European Union formally launched the accession process that will lead to a significant enlargement of the Union. So far ten countries from Central Europe: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia have submitted their applications for EU membership. This unique process immediately attracted attention of economists and policy makers. Nevertheless, it can be noticed that among numerous results already published, there is a distinctive shortage of books and papers in which quantitative research methods are applied. This is to a large extent justified by the fact that the transition and accession processes are new to the economic sciences, their methodology is not wellresearched, statistical data for the Central and East European countries are scarce and not always reliable and, generally, quantitative approach seems to be a risky and uncertain business. All these all problems can also be seen as a challenge rather than an obstacle. With this on mind, we have decided to clarify the status quo by organising a research seminar which focused on the methodology and quantitative analysis of the Central and East European transition and pre-accession processes. The seminar, East European Transition and EU Enlargement: a Quantitative Approach organised by Macroeconomic and Financial Data Centre (University of Gdansk and University ofLeicester) took place in Gdansk in June 2001. Our edited volume contains papers developed from this seminar.

This is the second of a two-volume set of articles reflecting the current state of research in theoretical and applied econometrics. The topics covered include time series methods, semiparametric methods, seasonality, financial economics, model solution techniques, economic development, and labour economics. All the contributions were commissioned to be presented at the plenary sessions of the Sixth World Congress of the Econometric Society in Barcelona.

This is the first of a two-volume set of articles reflecting the current state of research in theoretical and applied econometrics. The topics covered include time series methods, semiparametric methods, seasonality, financial economics, model solution techniques, economic development, and labour economics. All the contributions were commissioned to be presented at the plenary sessions of the Sixth World Congress of the Econometric Society in Barcelona.

The problem of disparities between different estimates of GDP is, according to this text, well-known and widely discussed. Here, the authors describe a method for examining the discrepancies using a technique allocating them with reference to data reliability. The method enhances the reliability of the underlying data and leads to maximum-likelihood estimates. It is illustrated by application to the UK national accounts for the period 1920-1990. The book includes a full set of estimates for this period, including runs of industrial data for the period 1948-1990 which are longer than those available from any other source. The statistical technique allows estimates of standard errors of the data to be calculated and verified; these are presented both for data in levels and for changes in variables over one-, two- and five-year periods. A disk with the dataset in machine readable form is available separately.

In this book Christian Gourieroux and Alain Monfort provide an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of modern time series econometrics. They have succeeded in synthesising in an organised and integrated way a broad and diverse literature. While the book does not assume a deep knowledge of economics, one of its most attractive features is the close attention it pays to economic models and phenomena throughout. The coverage represents a major reference tool for graduate students, researchers and applied economists. The book is divided into four sections. Section one gives a detailed treatment of classical seasonal adjustment or smoothing methods. Section two provides a thorough coverage of various mathematical tools. Section three is the heart of the book, and is devoted to a range of important topics including causality, exogeneity shocks, multipliers, cointegration and fractionally integrated models. The final section describes the main contribution of filtering and smoothing theory to time series econometric problems.

This two-volume work aims to present as completely as possible the methods of statistical inference with special reference to their economic applications. The reader will find a description not only of the classical concepts and results of mathematical statistics, but also of concepts and methods recently developed for the specific needs of econometrics. The authors have sought to avoid an overly technical presentation and go to some lengths to encourage an intuitive understanding of the results by providing numerous examples throughout. The breadth of approaches and the extensive coverage of the two volumes provide for a thorough and entirely self-contained course in modern econometrics. Volume 1 provides an introduction to general concepts and methods in statistics and econometrics, and goes on to cover estimation and prediction. Volume 2 focuses on testing, confidence regions, model selection, and asymptotic theory.

Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series has a long history, with the use of linear trends and moving averages forming the basic tool kit of economists until the 1970s. Several developments in econometrics then led to an overhaul of the techniques used to extract trends and cycles from time series. Terence Mills introduces these various approaches to allow students and researchers to appreciate the variety of techniques and the considerations that underpin their choice for modelling trends and cycles.

This book develops and analyzes dynamic decision models (DDM) with one trajectoral objective according to the methodology of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). Moreover, DDMs which concomitantly pursue multiple objectives are analyzed, with special emphasis given to hybrid models with scalar and trajectorial objectives as well as models with multiple trajectorial objectives. Introducing the method of distance maximization crucially augments MCDM and proves to be invaluable for DDMs with nonexistent utopia trajectory or with sustainability as objective. The notions of efficiency and sustainability are formally developed and counterposed by means of the construct of trajectorial objective, which is presented here, along with its implications, as a natural advance upon the classical scalar objective.

This two-volume work aims to present as completely as possible the methods of statistical inference with special reference to their economic applications. It is a well-integrated textbook presenting a wide diversity of models in a coherent and unified framework. The reader will find a description not only of the classical concepts and results of mathematical statistics, but also of concepts and methods recently developed for the specific needs of econometrics. Although the two volumes do not demand a high level of mathematical knowledge, they do draw on linear algebra and probability theory. The breadth of approaches and the extensive coverage of this two-volume work provide for a thorough and entirely self-contained course in modern economics. Volume 1 provides an introduction to general concepts and methods in statistics and econometrics, and goes on to cover estimation and prediction. Volume 2 focuses on testing, confidence regions, model selection, and asymptotic theory.

This two-volume work aims to present as completely as possible the methods of statistical inference with special reference to their economic applications. The reader will find a description not only of the classical concepts and results of mathematical statistics, but also of concepts and methods recently developed for the specific needs of econometrics. The authors have sought to avoid an overly technical presentation and go to some lengths to encourage an intuitive understanding of the results by providing numerous examples throughout. The breadth of approaches and the extensive coverage of the two volumes provide for a thorough and entirely self-contained course in modern econometrics. Volume 1 provides an introduction to general concepts and methods in statistics and econometrics, and goes on to cover estimation and prediction. Volume 2 focuses on testing, confidence regions, model selection, and asymptotic theory.

This book is a tool for the theoretical and numerical investigation of nonlinear dynamical systems modeled by means of ordinary differential and difference equations. The work is divided into two parts: a book, comprising a theoretical overview of the subject matter and a number of applications; and an integrated software program. The book first discusses the fundamental concepts and methods of chaos theory, and then applies these theoretical results and the facilities provided by the companion software program to models suggested by economic problems.

For some seven decades, econometrics has been almost exclusiveley dealing with constructing and applying econometric equation systems, which constitute constraints in econometric optimization models. The second major component, the scalarvalued objective function, has only in recent years attracted more attention and some progress has been made. This book is devoted to theories, models and methods for constructing scalarvalued objective functions for econometric optimization models, to their applications, and to some related topics like historical issues about pioneering contributions by Ragnar Frisch and Jan Tinbergen.

This work presents an overview of recent developments in social choice theory and welfare economics, drawn from the proceedings of the eighth conference in the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics series under the general editorship of William Barnett. The volume is divided into four parts, each exploring broad themes in social choice theory and welfare economics. First, an overview of the short, yet intense period of the subject's historical development. Second, a discussion of the ethical aspects of social choice, encompassing such issues as equal opportunity, individual rights and population monotonicity. Third, a study of the algebraic and combinatorial aspects of social choice theory. The final section is devoted to a study of aggregation with risk aversion to current and future variables, and the creation of a an intertemporal framework to go beyond the usual static description of income distributions measured over a short period.

These books comprise papers examining the latest developments in economic theory given at the Sixth World Congress of the Econometric Society in Barcelona in August 1990. They are the latest in a series of collections that cover the most active fields in economic theory over a five year period. With papers from the world's leading specialists, the books give the reader a unique survey of the most recent advances in economic theory.

This book comprises the second volume of papers presented at the Sixth World congress of the Econometric Society in Barcelona in August 1990. With papers from the world's leading specialists, it gives the reader a unique survey of the most recent advances in economic theory.

The Econometric Society holds a World Congress every five years. The programme of these congresses has traditionally included a series of invited symposia, where speakers survey important recent advancements in economic theory and econometrics. Part of a two-volume set, this text, with its focus on econometrics, and a companion volume on economic theory, contains papers delivered at the Fifth World Congress held in 1985. Designed to make material accessible to a general audience of economists, these papers should be helpful to anyone with training in economics who wishes to follow new ideas and tendencies in the subject. Advances in Econometrics, Fifth World Congress, Volumes I and II, edited by Professor Truman F. Bewley of Yale University, include a wide variety of topics, comprising empirical and policy-orientated subjects as well as theoretical and methodological ones.

This book examines the consequences of misspecifications ranging from the fundamental to the nonexistent for the interpretation of likelihood-based methods of statistical estimation and interference. Professor White first explores the underlying motivation for maximum-likelihood estimation, treats the interpretation of the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) for misspecified probability models, and gives the conditions under which parameters of interest can be consistently estimated despite misspecification, and the consequences of misspecification, for hypothesis testing in estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix of the parameters. Although the theory presented in the book is motivated by econometric problems, its applicability is by no means restricted to economics. Subject to defined limitations, the theory applies to any scientific context in which statistical analysis is conducted using approximate models.

This is the second of a 1994 two-volume set of articles reflecting the state of research in theoretical and applied econometrics. The topics covered include time series methods, semiparametric methods, seasonality, financial economics, model solution techniques, economic development and labour economics. All the contributions were commissioned to be presented at the plenary sessions of the Sixth World Congress of the Econometric Society in Barcelona.

The Econometric Society holds a World Congress every five years. The programme of these congresses has traditionally included a series of invited symposia, where speakers survey important recent advances in economic theory and econometrics. These two volumes, with their focus on econometrics, and their companion volume on economic theory, contain papers delivered at the Fifth World Congress held in 1985. Designed to make material accessible to a general audience of economists, these papers should be helpful to anyone with training in economics who wishes to follow new ideas and tendencies in the subject. Advances in Econometrics: Fifth World Congress, Volumes I & II, edited by Professor Truman F. Bewley of Yale University, include a wide variety of topics, comprising empirical and policy oriented subjects as well as theoretical and methodological ones.

Empirical measurement of impacts of active labour market programmes has started to become a central task of economic researchers. New improved econometric methods have been developed that will probably influence future empirical work in various other fields of economics as well. This volume contains a selection of original papers from leading experts, among them James J. Heckman, Noble Prize Winner 2000 in economics, addressing these econometric issues at the theoretical and empirical level. The theoretical part contains papers on tight bounds of average treatment effects, instrumental variables estimators, impact measurement with multiple programme options and statistical profiling. The empirical part provides the reader with econometric evaluations of active labour market programmes in Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Slovak Republic and Sweden.

This is the first of a two-volume set of articles reflecting the current state of research in theoretical and applied econometrics. The topics covered include time series methods, semiparametric methods, seasonality, financial economics, model solution techniques, economic development, and labour economics. All the contributions were commissioned to be presented at the plenary sessions of the Sixth World Congress of the Econometric Society in Barcelona.

and Feldman, 1996 or Audretsch and Stephan, 1996) show that unformalized knowledge may playa major role in the innovation of new products. Now if unformalized knowledge is communicated personally, distance will be an important variable in this process, since the intensity of contacts between persons can be expected to be negatively correlated to the distance between them. In the discussion of section 3.3.1 (page 42) we saw that it was this aspect of localization that Marshall had in mind when he was alluding to "local trade secrets."4 Note that if this spatial dimension of communication between agents exists, it is possible to transfer it to regional aggregates of agents: the closer two regions, the more they will be able to profit from the respective pool of human capital (R&D-output etc.) of the other region. This argument gives a spatial 5 interpretation of the literature on endogenous growth. Now if these spillovers have a spatial dimension then it follows from the discussion in chapter 3 that they will be one driving force in the dynamics of agglomeration. With the model to be developed in this chapter I will investigate the hy pothesis that it is these forces of agglomeration (i.e. spatial spillovers of nonrival goods or foctors) that are responsible for the inhomogeneous pattern of growth con vergence. To analyze this phenomenon, I consider different types of regional aggregates and different distances in the model."

The contents of this volume are drawn from the seventh International Symposium in Economic Theory and Econometrics, and represent recent advances in the development of concepts and methods in political economy. Contributors include leading practitioners working on formal, applied, and historical approaches to the subject. The collection will interest scholars in the fields of political science and political sociology no less than economics. Part I outlines relevant concepts in political economy, including implementation, community, ideology, and institutions. Part II covers theory and applications of the spatial model of voting. Part III considers the different characteristics that govern the behaviour of institutions, while Part IV analyses competition between political representatives. Part V is concerned with the way in which government acquires information held by voters or advisors, and Part VI addresses government choice on monetary policy and taxation.