In 1945, very early in the history of the development of a rigorous analytical theory of probability, Feller (1945) wrote a paper called "The fundamental limit theorems in probability" in which he set out what he considered to be "the two most important limit theorems in the modern theory of probability: the central limit theorem and the recently discovered ... 'Kolmogoroff's cel ebrated law of the iterated logarithm' ." A little later in the article he added to these, via a charming description, the "little brother (of the central limit theo rem), the weak law of large numbers," and also the strong law of large num bers, which he considers as a close relative of the law of the iterated logarithm. Feller might well have added to these also the beautiful and highly applicable results of renewal theory, which at the time he himself together with eminent colleagues were vigorously producing. Feller's introductory remarks include the visionary: "The history of probability shows that our problems must be treated in their greatest generality: only in this way can we hope to discover the most natural tools and to open channels for new progress. This remark leads naturally to that characteristic of our theory which makes it attractive beyond its importance for various applications: a combination of an amazing generality with algebraic precision."

Does game theory ? the mathematical theory of strategic interaction ? provide genuine explanations of human behaviour? Can game theory be used in economic consultancy or other normative contexts? Explaining Games: The Epistemic Programme in Game Theory ? the first monograph on the philosophy of game theory ? is a bold attempt to combine insights from epistemic logic and the philosophy of science to investigate the applicability of game theory in such fields as economics, philosophy and strategic consultancy. De Bruin proves new mathematical theorems about the beliefs, desires and rationality principles of individual human beings, and he explores in detail the logical form of game theory as it is used in explanatory and normative contexts. He argues that game theory reduces to rational choice theory if used as an explanatory device, and that game theory is nonsensical if used as a normative device. A provocative account of the history of game theory reveals that this is not bad news for all of game theory, though. Two central research programmes in game theory tried to find the ultimate characterisation of strategic interaction between rational agents. Yet, while the Nash Equilibrium Refinement Programme has done badly thanks to such research habits as overmathematisation, model-tinkering and introversion, the Epistemic Programme, De Bruin argues, has been rather successful in achieving this aim.

A host of internationally recognized experts have been brought together to examine one of the most important sectors in today's world economy, the information sector. The study utilizes the most recent quantitative and econometric research on the media and information sectors and their markets. Most of the work presented is from two international conferences and other invited conferences.

This book presents estimates of the sources of economic growth in Canada. The experimental measures account for the reproducibility of capital inputs in an input-output framework and show that advances in technology are more important for economic growth than previously estimated. Traditional measures of multifactor productivity advance are also presented. Extensive comparisons relate the two approaches to each change and labour productivity. The book will be of interest to macroeconomists studying economic growth, capital accumulation, technical advance, growth accounting, and input-output analysis.

In this book, we synthesize a rich and vast literature on econometric challenges associated with accounting choices and their causal effects. Identi?cation and es- mation of endogenous causal effects is particularly challenging as observable data are rarely directly linked to the causal effect of interest. A common strategy is to employ logically consistent probability assessment via Bayes' theorem to connect observable data to the causal effect of interest. For example, the implications of earnings management as equilibrium reporting behavior is a centerpiece of our explorations. Rather than offering recipes or algorithms, the book surveys our - periences with accounting and econometrics. That is, we focus on why rather than how. The book can be utilized in a variety of venues. On the surface it is geared - ward graduate studies and surely this is where its roots lie. If we're serious about our studies, that is, if we tackle interesting and challenging problems, then there is a natural progression. Our research addresses problems that are not well - derstood then incorporates them throughout our curricula as our understanding improves and to improve our understanding (in other words, learning and c- riculum development are endogenous). For accounting to be a vibrant academic discipline, we believe it is essential these issues be confronted in the undergr- uate classroom as well as graduate studies. We hope we've made some progress with examples which will encourage these developments.

In the last 20 years, econometric theory on panel data has developed rapidly, particularly for analyzing common behaviors among individuals over time. Meanwhile, the statistical methods employed by applied researchers have not kept up-to-date. This book attempts to fill in this gap by teaching researchers how to use the latest panel estimation methods correctly. Almost all applied economics articles use panel data or panel regressions. However, many empirical results from typical panel data analyses are not correctly executed. This book aims to help applied researchers to run panel regressions correctly and avoid common mistakes. The book explains how to model cross-sectional dependence, how to estimate a few key common variables, and how to identify them. It also provides guidance on how to separate out the long-run relationship and common dynamic and idiosyncratic dynamic relationships from a set of panel data. Aimed at applied researchers who want to learn about panel data econometrics by running statistical software, this book provides clear guidance and is supported by a full range of online teaching and learning materials. It includes practice sections on MATLAB, STATA, and GAUSS throughout, along with short and simple econometric theories on basic panel regressions for those who are unfamiliar with econometric theory on traditional panel regressions.

Natural monopolies are not subject to the market-based principle of competition. Consequently, it is necessary to control companies in such monopoly positions with regard to their pricing. In the future, it will become more and more important to consider a possible change in the regulation regime when the future-oriented costs of equity - both in terms of price regulation and for conducting capital market-oriented business valuations - are to be determined. Based on the principal-agent problem, the book explains this topic. The effect of a change in the regulation regime is presented in the form of two studies: an international secondary analysis of the effects on cost of equity based on event studies of the Anglo-Saxon area and a primary analysis based on the Austrian regulation policy for electricity and gas supply systems. The two studies arrive at similar results: The change from a rate-of-return regulation to incentive regulation systems leads to a significant increase in systematic risk.

Numerical analysis is the study of computation and its accuracy, stability and often its implementation on a computer. This book focuses on the principles of numerical analysis and is intended to equip those readers who use statistics to craft their own software and to understand the advantages and disadvantages of different numerical methods.

In the Administration building at Linkopi ] ng University we have one of Oscar Reutersvard' ] s "Impossible Figures" in three dimensions. I call it "Perspectives of Science." When viewed from a speci c point in space there is order and structure in the 3-dimensional gure. When viewed from other points there is disorder and no structure. If a speci c scienti c paradigm is used, there is order and structure; otherwise there is disorder and no structure. My perspective in Transportation Science has focused on understanding the mathematical structure and the logic underlying the choice probability models in common use. My book with N. F. Stewart on the Gravity model (Erlander and Stewart 1990), was written in this perspective. The present book stems from the same desire to understand underlying assumptions and structure. It investigateshow far a new way of de ning Cost-Minimizing Behavior can take us.Itturnsoutthatall commonlyusedchoiceprobabilitydistributionsoflogittype- log linear probability functions - follow from cost-minimizing behavior de ned in the new way. In addition some new nested models appear."

In recent years, as part of the increasing "informationization" of industry and the economy, enterprises have been accumulating vast amounts of detailed data such as high-frequency transaction data in nancial markets and point-of-sale information onindividualitems in theretail sector. Similarly,vast amountsof data arenow ava- able on business networks based on inter rm transactions and shareholdings. In the past, these types of information were studied only by economists and management scholars. More recently, however, researchers from other elds, such as physics, mathematics, and information sciences, have become interested in this kind of data and, based on novel empirical approaches to searching for regularities and "laws" akin to those in the natural sciences, have produced intriguing results. This book is the proceedings of the international conference THICCAPFA7 that was titled "New Approaches to the Analysis of Large-Scale Business and E- nomic Data," held in Tokyo, March 1-5, 2009. The letters THIC denote the Tokyo Tech (Tokyo Institute of Technology)-Hitotsubashi Interdisciplinary Conference. The conference series, titled APFA (Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis), focuses on the analysis of large-scale economic data. It has traditionally brought physicists and economists together to exchange viewpoints and experience (APFA1 in Dublin 1999, APFA2 in Liege ` 2000, APFA3 in London 2001, APFA4 in Warsaw 2003, APFA5 in Torino 2006, and APFA6 in Lisbon 2007). The aim of the conf- ence is to establish fundamental analytical techniques and data collection methods, taking into account the results from a variety of academic disciplines.

Floro Ernesto Caroleo and Francesco Pastore This book was conceived to collect selected essays presented at the session on "The Labour Market Impact of the European Union Enlargements. A New Regional Geography of Europe?" of the XXII Conference of the Italian Association of Labour Economics (AIEL). The session aimed to stimulate the debate on the continuity/ fracture of regional patterns of development and employment in old and new European Union (EU) regions. In particular, we asked whether, and how different, the causes of emergence and the evolution of regional imbalances in the new EU members of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are compared to those in the old EU members. Several contributions in this book suggest that a factor common to all backward regions, often neglected in the literature, is to be found in their higher than average degree of structural change or, more precisely, in the hardship they expe- ence in coping with the process of structural change typical of all advanced economies. In the new EU members of CEE, structural change is still a consequence of the continuing process of transition from central planning to a market economy, but also of what Fabrizio et al. (2009) call the "second transition," namely that related to the run-up to and entry in the EU.

This book introduces a new way to analyze multivariate data. The analysis of data based on multivariate spatial signs and ranks proceeds very much as does a tra- tional multivariate analysis relying on the assumption of multivariate normality: the L norm is just replaced by different L norms, observation vectors are replaced by 2 1 their(standardizedandcentered)spatial signsandranks, andso on.Themethodsare fairly ef?cient and robust, and no moment assumptions are needed. A uni?ed t- ory starting with the simple one-sample location problem and proceeding through the several-sample location problems to the general multivariate linear regression model and ?nally to the analysis of cluster-dependent data is presented. The material is divided into 14 chapters. Chapter 1 serves as a short introd- tion to the general ideas and strategies followed in the book. Chapter 2 introduces and discusses different types of parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric s- tistical models used to analyze the multivariate data. Chapter 3 provides general descriptive tools to describe the properties of multivariate distributions and mul- variate datasets. Multivariate location and scatter functionals and statistics and their use is described in detail. Chapter 4 introduces the concepts of multivariate spatial sign, signed-rank, andrank, and shows their connectionto certain L objectivefunc- 1 tions. Also sign and rank covariance matrices are discussed carefully. The ?rst four chapters thus provide the necessary tools to understand the remaining part of the b

This book provides an introduction to the technical background of unit root testing, one of the most heavily researched areas in econometrics over the last twenty years. Starting from an elementary understanding of probability and time series, it develops the key concepts necessary to understand the structure of random walks and brownian motion, and their role in tests for a unit root. The techniques are illustrated with worked examples, data and programs available on the book's website, which includes more numerical and theoretical examples
This book is indispensable reading for all interested in Time Series Econometrics, Econometrics and Applied Econometrics

This book provides an introduction to the technical background of unit root testing, one of the most heavily researched areas in econometrics over the last twenty years. Starting from an elementary understanding of probability and time series, it develops the key concepts necessary to understand the structure of random walks and brownian motion, and their role in tests for a unit root. The techniques are illustrated with worked examples, data and programs available on the book's website, which includes more numerical and theoretical examples
This book is indispensable reading for all interested in Time Series Econometrics, Econometrics and Applied Econometrics

Long-rangedependent, or long-memory, time seriesarestationarytime series displaying a statistically signi?cant dependence between very distant obs- vations. We formalize this dependence by assuming that the autocorrelation function of these stationary series decays very slowly, hyperbolically, as a function of the time lag. Many economic series display these empirical features: volatility of asset prices returns, future interest rates, etc. There is a huge statistical literature on long-memory processes, some of this research is highly technical, so that it is cited, but often misused in the applied econometrics and empirical e- nomics literature. The ?rst purpose of this book is to present in a formal and pedagogical way some statistical methods for studying long-range dependent processes. Furthermore, the occurrence of long-memory in economic time series might be a statistical artefact as the hyperbolic decay of the sample autoc- relation function does not necessarily derive from long-range dependent p- cesses. Indeed, the realizations of non-homogeneous processes, e.g., switching regime and change-point processes, display the same empirical features. We thus also present in this book recent statistical methods able to discriminate between the long-memory and change-point alternatives. Going beyond the purely statistical analysis of economic series, it is of interest to determine which economic mechanisms are generating the strong dependence properties of economic series, whether they are genuine, or spu- ous. The regularities of the long-memory and change-point properties across economic time series, e.g., common degree of long-range dependence and/or common change-points, suggest the existence of a common economic cause

Competition and efficiency is at the core of economic theory. This volume collects papers of leading scholars, which extend the conventional general equilibrium model in important ways: Efficiency and price regulation are studied when markets are incomplete and existence of equilibria in such settings is proven under very general preference assumptions. The model is extended to include geographical location choice, a commodity space incorporating manufacturing imprecision and preferences for club-membership, schools and firms. Inefficiencies arising from household externalities or group membership are evaluated. Core equivalence is shown for bargaining economies. The theory of risk aversion is extended and the relation between risk taking and wealth is experimentally investigated. Other topics include determinacy in OLG with cash-in-advance constraints, income distribution and democracy in OLG, learning in OLG and in games, optimal pricing of derivative securities, the impact of heterogeneity at the individual level for aggregate consumption, and adaptive contracting in view of uncertainty.

? In his "Prime ricerche sulla rivoluzione dei prezzi in Firenze" (1939), Giuseppe Parenti, by Fernand Braudel regarded as an author who "se classait, d'entree de jeu et sans discussion possible, a la hauteur meme d'Earl Jefferson Hamilton. . . . " begins his opening lines with a description/de?nition of the price revolution which took place in the XVI in Europe as "that extraordinary enhancement of all things that occurred in European countries around the second half of the XVI; revolution in the true meaning of the word, as not only, like any strong price increase, it modi?ed the wealth distribution process and changed the relative position of the various social categories and of the different functions of the economic activity, but affected too, in a way that was not enough studied yet, the relative evolution of the various national economies, and ?nally, . . . . . . . . . ., certainly contributed to the birth, or at least to the dissemination, of the new naturalistic economic ideas, from which the economic science would have sprung." De?nition that can be taken as the founding metaphor of this volume."

A careful basic theoretical and econometric analysis of the factors determining the real exchange rates of Canada, the U.K., Japan, France and Germany with respect to the United States is conducted. The resulting conclusion is that real exchange rates are almost entirely determined by real factors relating to growth and technology such as oil and commodity prices, international allocations of world investment across countries, and underlying terms of trade changes. Unanticipated money supply shocks, calculated in five alternative ways have virtually no effects. A Blanchard-Quah VAR analysis also indicates that the effects of real shocks predominate over monetary shocks by a wide margin. The implications of these facts for the conduct of monetary policy in countries outside the U.S. are then explored leading to the conclusion that all countries, to avoid exchange rate overshooting, have tended to automatically follow the same monetary policy as the United States. The history of world monetary policy is reviewed along with the determination of real exchange rates within the Euro Area.

The combined efforts of the Physicists and the Economists in recent years in a- lyzing and modeling various dynamic phenomena in monetary and social systems have led to encouragingdevelopments,generally classi?ed under the title of Eco- physics. These developmentsshare a commonambitionwith the alreadyestablished ?eld of Quantitative Economics. This volume intends to offer the reader a glimpse of these two parallel initiatives by collecting review papers written by well-known experts in the respective research frontiers in one cover. This massive book presents a unique combination of research papers contributed almost equally by Physicists and Economists. Additional contributions from C- puter Scientists and Mathematicians are also included in this volume. It consists of two parts: The ?rst part concentrates on econophysics of games and social choices and is the proceedings of the Econophys-Kolkata IV workshop held at the Indian Statistical Institute and the Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, both in Kolkata, d- ing March 9-13, 2009. The second part consists of contributionsto quantitative e- nomics by experts in connection with the Platinum Jubilee celebration of the Indian Statistical Institute. In this connectiona Forewordfor the volume, written by Sankar K. Pal, Director of the Indian Statistical Institute, is put forth. Both parts specialize mostly on frontier problems in games and social choices. The?rst partofthebookdealswith severalrecentdevelopmentsineconophysics. Game theory is integral to the formulation of modern economic analysis. Often games display a situation where the social optimal could not be reached as a - sult of non co-operation between different agents.

Spatial statistics are useful in subjects as diverse as climatology, ecology, economics, environmental and earth sciences, epidemiology, image analysis and more. This book covers the best-known spatial models for three types of spatial data: geostatistical data (stationarity, intrinsic models, variograms, spatial regression and space-time models), areal data (Gibbs-Markov fields and spatial auto-regression) and point pattern data (Poisson, Cox, Gibbs and Markov point processes). The level is relatively advanced, and the presentation concise but complete.

The most important statistical methods and their asymptotic properties are described, including estimation in geostatistics, autocorrelation and second-order statistics, maximum likelihood methods, approximate inference using the pseudo-likelihood or Monte-Carlo simulations, statistics for point processes and Bayesian hierarchical models. A chapter is devoted to Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation (Gibbs sampler, Metropolis-Hastings algorithms and exact simulation).
A large number of real examples are studied with R, and each chapter ends with a set of theoretical and applied exercises. While a foundation in probability and mathematical statistics is assumed, three appendices introduce some necessary background. The book is accessible to senior undergraduate students with a solid math background and Ph.D. students in statistics. Furthermore, experienced statisticians and researchers in the above-mentioned fields will find the book valuable as a mathematically sound reference.

This book is the English translation of Modelisation et Statistique Spatiales published by Springer in the series Mathematiques & Applications, a series established by Societe de Mathematiques Appliquees et Industrielles (SMAI)."

This book provides the first ever comprehensive economic evaluation of the long-standing German system of works councils and worker directors on company boards. This system of codetermination, or "Mitbestimmung, " is unique in the degree of information provision, consultation, and participation ceded employees. Addison analyzes the effects of works councils on establishment productivity, profitability, investment in physical and intangible capital, employment, training, wages and organizational flexibility, as well as the influence of worker directors on some of the same indicators plus, critically, shareholder value. Today, works councils are in decline while worker directors have scarcely been embraced either from within or without. This book examines these challenges and addresses the likely evolution of codetermination.

Following the recent publication of the award winning and much acclaimed "The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics," second edition which brings together Nobel Prize winners and the brightest young scholars to survey the discipline, we are pleased to announce "The New Palgrave Economics Collection." Due to demand from the economics community these books address key subject areas within the field. Each title is comprised of specially selected articles from the Dictionary and covers a fundamental theme within the discipline. All of the articles have been specifically chosen by the editors of the Dictionary, Steven N.Durlauf and Lawrence E.Blume and are written by leading practitioners in the field. The Collections provide the reader with easy to access information on complex and important subject areas, and allow individual scholars and students to have their own personal reference copy.

Following the recent publication of the award winning and much acclaimed "The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics," second edition which brings together Nobel Prize winners and the brightest young scholars to survey the discipline, we are pleased to announce "The New Palgrave Economics Collection." Due to demand from the economics community these books address key subject areas within the field. Each title is comprised of specially selected articles from the Dictionary and covers a fundamental theme within the discipline. All of the articles have been specifically chosen by the editors of the Dictionary, Steven N.Durlauf and Lawrence E.Blume and are written by leading practitioners in the field. The Collections provide the reader with easy to access information on complex and important subject areas, and allow individual scholars and students to have their own personal reference copy.

Following the recent publication of the award winning and much acclaimed "The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics," second edition which brings together Nobel Prize winners and the brightest young scholars to survey the discipline, we are pleased to announce "The New Palgrave Economics Collection." Due to demand from the economics community these books address key subject areas within the field. Each title is comprised of specially selected articles from the Dictionary and covers a fundamental theme within the discipline. All of the articles have been specifically chosen by the editors of the Dictionary, Steven N.Durlauf and Lawrence E.Blume and are written by leading practitioners in the field. The Collections provide the reader with easy to access information on complex and important subject areas, and allow individual scholars and students to have their own personal reference copy.

This book assembles key texts in the theory and applications of the Structural Econometric Time Series Analysis (SEMTSA) approach. The theory and applications of these procedures to a variety of econometric modeling and forecasting problems as well as Bayesian and non-Bayesian testing, shrinkage estimation and forecasting procedures are presented and applied. Finally, attention is focused on the effects of disaggregation on forecasting precision.